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 Replies: 12 / Views: 2,213 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I have a simple way to buy RCM NCLT coins and other coins- First of all, for a coin to enter my collection, it must fit my collecting theme or focus. My interests are centered on as one example, animals, specifically elephants, rhinos, and hippos at the very top of my list. From there I have a few other sub interests. Now I have yet to see RCM put out an "elephants of Ontario" series and maybe they just might one day. Some might be saying also, "ok what does this have to do with RCM NCLT coins?" Well I have other interests as well. I like to get coins that feature or tie in with where I live. In this case, the RCM has released a few coins that fit that interest or focus I have. The RCM as an example has done two reverse proof maple coins with privy marks for the Chicago ANA shows in 2014 and 2015. So this is how I approached purchasing these coins. First I look to see what the mints initial release price is. Then I find 3 prices from 3 well known and talked dealers that offer a discount from the RCM price. Then I WAIT. I WAIT for days, weeks and MONTHS before I move. After months have passed I start watching ebay and start compiling data. Once I detect, from my collection of price data on that coin, that it is going in one direction, I allow prices to flow. In the case of the 2014 ANA privy maple leaf, I allow prices to drop. So once I had all the details of the specific coin I wanted, I allowed the prices to clue me in. I watched prices on auctions start out in the high 70s, drop to low 70s, highs 60s, low 60s, then high 50s, then for a few more weeks the price stalled at mid 50s, and at that point, I felt personally comfortable paying there. I took this one step further and kept following this coin from 2014 and watched it. I wanted to see how much lower it would go as I was certain it would go lower. Sure enough, I saw prices drop into the low 40s before I stopped following it. This fits with what I already know to be true, which is what is cheap will become cheaper in time. I am fine with where I bought in. My goal is to capture between a 40-50% reduction on the coins drop in price. I do believe that it might even be possible tho to get even 60% off a coin if one waits long enough. I carry out this exact process, but in reverse, that is, I pay up or higher for a coin than the mints initial release price, when a coin I like is going higher on ebay. Once again, I WAIT. I wait days, weeks and months. I check to see what the Mints initial release price is. Then I check with dealers and look at their prices, looking to see if they are increasing the price. Then I turn my attention to ebay and the secondary market. What I want to see in my data is a gradual rise in price from the mints initial release price and then to see it slowly climb on ebay. When I have several months of data, I go back and look for any dips in price and there will be a few but the dips should never be lower than the Mints initial release price. When I see this, where prices dip on ebay but remain HIGHER than the initial mint release price or even a dealers discount price, this tells me demand is strong for the coin on the secondary market. It is in these dips that I look for to buy the coin. These sort of coins are the ones that continue to climb in price over time on the secondary market. ... and there you have it,,, how I like to buy my RCM and other mint NLCT coins. It involves a ton of patience and record/data keeping. Let me tell you tho, it is worth it! |
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Valued Member
Canada
256 Posts |
YUP7676 - Great insight to your buying strategy. I agree. Patince is a virtue when buying.
Thanks for sharing
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts |
Thanks for describing your very strategic buying approach!
Indeed there's many secondary pursuits associated to the coin collecting hobby that often don't get mentioned, yet can yield a far greater feeling of accomplishment and satisfaction as opposed to "hurry, buy now!". As you've illustrated, there's also interesting observations along the way, serving as a valuable learning opportunity. (It's people with skills like you, who also watch the stock market, who actually do make money:-)
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Valued Member
Canada
115 Posts |
I wish I had the discipline and patience you have :)
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Thanks guys I appreciate the comments. I think one factor that will always be on the side of the coin sellers is that I do believe coin collecting is largely an impulse driven hobby. After all, we are talking shiny, bright objects, made out of a precious metal. When they look good or appeal to our senses, it is hard to resist. I was going to post this on my somalian elephant thread but I will figure I mention it here. I have been holding off on many of these because they drop hard in price in the secondary market, especically if they are say Kilo silver coins. Case in point. In 2015, they started doing Kilo elephant coins but doing them with ONLY a mintage of 100. These were called something like Elephant at Night kilo coins, and they came with a case and COA. I have to say, I REALLY want one of these. I Mean a colored KILO somalian elephant coin in a case, numbered, come on now, that is super appealing to me. Here is the catch. Dealers wanted between 1500-1300ish for this coin. So I waited and watched. Dealers in time such as APMEX and Silvertowne sold out and I had their offer prices. Months go by. Then like 4 months later, someone had one, for auction,,, and the auction went for 900ish! Then another auction, came in at 1,000... and here I Am thinking "hmmm, 100 coins and the dealers sold out but on ebay they are tanking hard". After almost a year of data, even seeing one auction go for lower 800s I believe (dont have my records in front of me) I looked over all the prices and not a SINGLE auction went for MORE than a dealers retail price, which they were selling at. NOW... lets fast forward to 2016. APMEX now is selling the same type coin, but for 2016, same mintage, same COA, same box, etc. Now the coin is going for something like 970!! I mean just a little more and it will be HALF the cost of the first set of coins released. That is why I will not buy these kilo sized coins until there is a resolution in the spot market. To me personally, I want these coins in my collection but I do feel I must over pay, even if its one coin. I am not going to do that. Thats just me, I know folks are buying kilos all the time and thats fine. I have no objection with what someone wants to do, if they are happy with a kilo coin, so be it, I want them happy. But me personally speaking, I cannot do that. I will not over pay for something that is going down in price. Anyways, the same patterns always happen, over and over and over. |
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New Member
Canada
17 Posts |
@yup7676 - this is more less the strategy that I now employ for NCLT acquisition. As much as I like getting birthday/father's day/Christmas gifts I feel bad knowing 99% of the time I could get a better deal on that coin doing it 'my way.'
For the 'more affordable' NCLT, I'm not as picky about letting it slide down, if it's a coin I'm drawn to or have a connection with. That's when I mosey on down to the boutique store (lucky enough to have a mint in my city) and see it in person before I buy.
I still might be kicking myself for letting the 2oz. Nothern Lights (Wolf) coin slide past without grabbing it at issue price as all indications point to this coin going into positive ground and staying there. But it still isn't motivation enough for me to just grab it right away.
Perhaps when I have more disposable income than current will I click that 'buy it now' or 'subscribe' button.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
This is a very insightful discussion. I am glad you decided to post it here. It would be great to add a couple examples we could tract and see the progress. I hear what everyone says about the impulse factor, I really wanted the curved parliament coin, but feel $159 is too much. I am struggling not to order. The 2 oz moonlight wolf, was somewhat of an impulse buy. I am working hard to curb the impulse buys, by not deciding immediately. I usually wait a day or two to see if I still want it.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts |
If I understand Yup correctly, it's not so much about tracking as it is about learning personal discipline. Anyone can do it - choose something you're interested in, set a target price and patently wait while diligently watching until it reaches that price. By the time it's finally does, after weeks, months or years, making the purchase is similar to a reward for a personal mission that's been successfully accomplished. The challenge of "the hunt, the capture" as well I suppose if we were back in the caveman days lol! NCLT works well to practise on because it's not a necessity.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
well its two things, both of which anyone can do, a two step process if you will. 1- be disciplined. always remember that for the most part, most coins from world mints are going to drop in price once they get to ebay. 2- once you have the discipline to wait and resist buying on impulse begin to track prices. The tracking of prices will clue you in which direction the coin is going. As a general simple, albeit VERY simple rule, coins that drop on ebay continue to drop lower. coins that rose in price from dealers and continued to rise in price on ebay tend to grind higher in price. Also notice that all you really need to know is what the price does. It doesn't mean if a coin has low mintage or not. As far as examples, I dont have many because recently I havent purchased anything other than the 2015 Back to the future Delorean Silver coin. I have also mentioned many coins such as the huge failure with the Bison coins from 2013. Another coin that has flopped is from the New Zealand mint with their Scrooge McDuck silver coin. I have posted here how from its 84 dollar initial release price it has dropped on ebay, going from high 70s, to mid 70s, followed by low 70s, progressed the 60s where now one dealer wants 60 for it. ebay is littered full of NCLT coins that imploded from their initial release price and now go for next to nothing, perhaps a tad over spot or at spot. All you have to do is keep waiting and tracking prices and in an environment with dropping PM spot prices and oversupply, you can get what you want if you like a certain coin. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
This is hilarious because new coins launched yesterday, and today launched a tread discussing how to get nclt coins for the lowest price. Years past an active discussion, was where to get coin X at issue, how the times have changed. I wonder what direction the next change will be in 3 yrs. It shows how the collector needs to adapt to changing markets and their influences. The new collector is very fortunate, as their is a wealth of info, posted in the past year. I feel the theme of this thread is how to purchase smartly. I wish I had read a thread of this nature, when I had started. Its amazing the amount of collective wisdom getting posted lately.
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Valued Member
Canada
256 Posts |
"This is hilarious because new coins launched yesterday, and today launched a tread discussing how to get nclt coins for the lowest price. Years past an active discussion, was where to get coin X at issue, how the times have changed."
Hate to re-iterate what's all been said before in the past year.
The mints collectively, to use a better word, capitalized on the hobby, by higher volumes, prices and selection.
They now seem to be curtailing some of this except the price of course.
I agree. I wish I had all the wisdom at my fingertips years ago when I started the hobby.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I wish I had observed this earlier when I started. But I was enjoying collecting.. till I noticed one night looking for a coin and stumbled upon my coins but at much less prices... then when members here started talking about it,, I put two and two together.
from that point on I devised a method I use from work, following price action and trends and came to this system to buy coins in a market where mints are putting out too much supply and are overpricing the vast majority of their offerings.
my hope that collectors can get the most out of their precious dollars
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts |
I have somewhat the same system with proof sets. I've a set for every year but in 2013 I quit buying when the price hit $229. No more, done, blah, not interested.
The recent sets do quite well in holding their price but I often notice good discounts, mainly sold privately or by auction, perhaps liquidating an estate. Anyway I did buy the 2013 set at a good price and so at this point in time I don't have 2014, 2015 or 2016. I'm going to stay 3 years behind and therefore I have all this year to find a 2014 set at my limit of $150 or less, otherwise the lag will move to 4 years. I'm not watching for any of the more recent, just year after year in sequence because if I can't meet my objective, my proof set collection will simply end.
It's no big deal if I don't find what I'm looking for but it's far more enjoyable for me to seek and find as opposed to ordering the sets and then just setting them aside until next year, then to do it all over again. The main interest to me is that some day I plan to add all the proof dollars to my other silver dollar collection.
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Replies: 12 / Views: 2,213 |
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Posted 01/27/2016 2:52 pm
