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Is This The Start Of The Bottom Falling Out On Pm?

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Harry213's Avatar
United States
1126 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2016  01:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Harry213 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'll share a profound statement I heard from my dealer at Saturday's coin show. When another customer said, "silver is "low right now", the dealer replied "low" is a relative term..

I'll reinforce what other's have written prior in this thread and share a little of my strategy;

I too have been in this hobby since silver was at $3-$4 oz. And I never imagined it could hit $40-$50 oz. And so I never bothered investing in it.

Had my crystal ball told me, I would have accumulated a gazillion ounces and sold it when the bubble popped.. Instead I did nothing but watch in disbelief as the whole thing unfolded.

Determined not to miss the next bus, I started buying back in when silver was back down to the mid $20's... But with the memory of having once witnessed silver at below $5 oz., and to protect my investment I stuck purely to coins that would hold their collector value at or above what I paid even if silver went to $5.

As silver dropped to below the "relatively low" $20 oz. I switched to buying less coin and more and more bullion...
And every time it dips to the "relatively low" mid/lower teens I "double down" and buy more bullion to bring my average cost per oz. down.

Do I think PM's can go lower?.. Definitely!..
Am I worried that they will go lower?.. Heck No!..
I welcome it and would love to be able to accumulate more, and at cheaper price levels.

I'm in for the long haul, at least 10 yrs, and in that time span I think we're in for a very wild and bumpy ride ( putting it mildly).. And Just as sure as I am that it can go lower, it will eventually bottom out and more than likely will go way higher in the very near future. That's my gut instinct.

Buy on the way down, sell on the way up...


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twslisa's Avatar
United States
790 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2016  04:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twslisa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't understand markets that well. But I've seen a number of articles talking about how some countries (Russia and China, among others) are aggressively buying gold. Since I assume their leaders DO understand the global market, it leads me to think that gold is a good idea.

Also, being a child of the Cold War, I've never fully accepted the notion that it's over. I don't believe it is for Putin. And recently he's been pretty brazen, doing things to influence elections in the West, testing our resolve in Syria, etc. The way Reagan broke Russia was through economic pressure, and I wouldn't put it past Putin to try to meddle with western currency and markets.

Finally, my grandparents helped raise me, and my grandpa came from a wealthy family that lost it all in the Great Depression. I grew up hearing the stories about how he asked a sheriff what he had to do to be put in jail so he could eat. As a result, I've always had in the back of my mind that every assumption about the economy can be turned on its head in a day.

Long story short, I may not have a lot of cash to drop on gold, and honestly, I'd much rather spend what I have on old coins, but I've decided to pick up SOME gold, if only a gram a month. Small potatoes to most of you guys, I'm sure, but I've never been great about saving money, and I've decided that if I'm going to spend it, better to spend it on things that ought to hold some value, even if hard times come.

Even if prices drop in the short run, the trend historically has been upwards, so I can't think it's a bad idea. The same may be true (especially now) of the stock market, but with everything in the world so unstable right now, I don't want all my money in one or two economic baskets. If I had the bucks for real estate I'd be buying that too.

Feel free to tell me where I'm missing things. I'm out to learn.
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trout1105's Avatar
Australia
7096 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2016  05:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trout1105 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@twslisa
If you want to "dabble" in Gold AND buy interesting coins at the same time then have a look at the 1/10th oz coins available from different countries.
The premiums over spot vary with these so shop around.
These smaller coins don't have such a dramatic impact on your wallet that the 1 oz coins do and it can be fun collecting the different designs out there
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twslisa's Avatar
United States
790 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2016  06:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twslisa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks, Trout! I have picked up a few 1/10 oz rounds. And I realize that the premium on grams makes them a poor investment. Otoh, right now, a gram at $47--Thats passing up treating a friend to a nice dinner. If I have over $100 for a coin, it's hard for me to pick a gold round over something with more history, and my budget is such that it really is either/or. I figure I can go Dutch more often and pick up a little gold at a time, and still have a budget for the coins I collect for fun.

Anyway, I see the gold less as an investment than as a "preparation for the worst," if that makes sense. I just figure it might be nice to have some in case things really go south, as they did in the Depressiom. If it comes to something like that, it might also be easer to use for barter if you're working with smaller bars and rounds.

I probably heard too many horror stories as a kid. LOL.
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trout1105's Avatar
Australia
7096 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2016  06:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trout1105 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you are serious about putting things aside just in case things "Go south" then Tobacco, Alcohol and bullets would be FAR more tradeable in that sort of situation than PM's
If you just want something to preserve wealth just in case the US dollar goes "Toes Up" then PM's are definitely the Go To item
Edited by trout1105
11/29/2016 06:32 am
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twslisa's Avatar
United States
790 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2016  1:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twslisa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Tobacco, booze and bullets! Now there are some commodities with legs! LOL. I hadn't thought about things going THAT far south.
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 11/30/2016  07:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If things get that bad, just hope that 'they' don't make transactions in PM's illegal, or any black market activity, for that matter.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Circus's Avatar
United States
3079 Posts
 Posted 11/30/2016  08:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Circus to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Have to say that all the old coins,with their premiums above the PM content along with gold and silver. And lately the prepper vendors at gun shows are humping copper which in any form other than wire, or pipe will be worthless for trades if everything goes sideways.
When it hit the fan down in Venezuela back in the 70's or so. you couldn't give PM's away in trade for gas, or food. There was two items that were in demand ammo and guns!

Stop and think about it why would anybody give up food or gas for coins that have an inflated value put on them for condition or rarity. If things do go sideways, it will be a long time if ever that coins collecting comes back from something other than bad guns to take away from you.

Another thing is who will determine HOW MUCH the PM's are worth, other than the parties doing a swap.

As for copper bullion buy wire, or t=tubing and fittings.
Copper requires higher temps then most backyard smelting operation can generate, not to mention that wire requires a oxygen free environment during smelting when used for any electrical applications so it is the correct electrical measurements per foot. Not t including the extruding equipment. But if you still insist on hoarding metal.

Buy scrap copper it is cheaper than rounds or bars or ingots
As of this morning bare bright copper is around $2.00 per pound depend were you are located. lots better than @.00 per 1/4 ounce round the prepper vendors sell them for at the gun shows.

The finial thing is you best have enough bodies to keep a 24 hour guard once it is known that you have PM's to trade or buy food or gas, not to mention learning to reload may be a good idea

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twslisa's Avatar
United States
790 Posts
 Posted 11/30/2016  10:17 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twslisa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If things go THAT far south, I think "illegal" will be the least of our problems. LOL. I'm not ready to go that far down the bunkers and ammo trail.

All I know is that if several big governmental entities are stocking up on gold, they are betting that it will retain value. It can't hurt to do likewise, even if you're having to get it in small increments.
Valued Member
everything's Avatar
United States
493 Posts
 Posted 11/30/2016  6:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add everything to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Probably not, but it might be. Coin and bar demand was increasing for 8 straight years, and finally fell back some this year.
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