Quote:At this point, the only (somewhat) definitive solution is to send it to one of the big 3
TPG's for authentication. Unfortunately, that's hard to do with a coin you don't own. If seller has an ironclad returns policy (no questions asked and at least 14 days from receipt) you might be able to make the call yourself in-hand.
That being said, in almost every case I can think of, you would be better advised to wait for an example to come up that is both within your price range and already slabbed and graded. Unless this coin is a screaming deal (30-40% or more below book) and you are comfortable with the fact you might be throwing away your money, it seems that purchasing it would be a roll of the dice at best.
Yes, thank you for the follow-up. I have come to the same conclusions.
Originality is a watchword for me, so I would only consider owning such an example as as an aide in the study of counterfeits. But your posts have me strongly suspecting that it is genuine, but harshly cleaned.
In order to get closure though, as well as to keep a potential 'good fake' off the market, I would consider buying it and having it certified. The only downside - being stuck with it when it comes back Genuine Details. I have not joined PCGS (isn't their entry fee around $149 to get submission privileges?) but I guess a second tier
TPG would be fine for detection if one wanted to pursue that path.
Quote:
...(many fakes) are being made with non-magnetic alloys, and sometimes genuine silver plating, so while the magnet test is highly specific for fakes, it is very non-sensitive, to use a medical analogy.
I hope you won't mind if we examine this idea, just to make the study analogy a bit more accessible. It has been 20 years since I studied Epidemiology, lol. This is very useful in discussing counterfeiting, but to use the sensitivity/specificity definitions for the study of coins it is good to first agree that counterfeit == disease.
Saying the metal test is "highly specific for fakes", we mean it is good for identifying coins 'without the disease', in other words confirming that a genuine coin is indeed genuine. It is not likely to report a fake when the coin is genuine.
Saying the magnet test is non-sensitive means that if a coin is fake the test might miss it. It might well report a coin as 'healthy' when it is a fake. It is prone to false negatives.
So the magnet test is not a great way to be sure, if in fact we are presented with a counterfeit.
Before looking at the particular cases of non-metallic alloys and silver plating let's first agree on that much.
I appreciate your keeping the thread going.
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Posted 01/21/2018 11:13 pm
