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Posted 01/31/2018 12:27 pm
Prior to the financial crisis and 2012 start of the flood there were list prices that got higher than issue prices on a significant minority of NCLT. And you could expect them to sell for 90% of list at least. As a buyer I remember thinking 80% of list was a great deal at the time. Vol 2 2018 has taken the first step towards recognizing that is no longer the reality and almost all list prices for older NCLT have been reduced. Although not yet by as much or as quickly as their actual, realized prices have been dropping. There is still the odd exception that proves the rule though. A few of the silver dollars, the $20 ladybug etc, some of the early 25c bird series. Although you probably only have to take off one sock to count them out of the hundreds of issues. However the key point is that very few (if any) of these were identifiable in advance. 5+ years ago the NCLT section of this forum was full of posts from 'flippers' bragging about buying coins and selling them for a markup, debating the next 'hot' coin etc. Although, even then, nobody seemed to want to brag about how much they lost with a wrong guess. Now it's just full of posts from the RCM announcing the new monthly/weekly/daily? issue. Today you've probably got better odds of winning the lottery then making money on NCLT unless you're a big dealer with the applicable RCM discounts and can leverage that on volume. And the lottery doesn't take as much upfront investment! :-)
