Coin Value Over Time?

For the most part coins will track with inflation as they are worth a certain amount of people's labor to buy them. Apart from that dynamic is overlaid supply and demand and this can be a much bigger force. The reason high grade commems have crashed since the 80's is lack of true demand. The reason that Draped Bust material of all denominations has done very well over the same time frame is inflation coupled with a stable supply/demand.

I have tracked third party graded Canadian silver dollars (1935-1967) on ebay auction for the last three years. The prices on those have held pretty steady. Not much variance up or down.

It is my hunch that generally better grade coins will typically keep their value better. Let us say that coin x is presently selling for $10 in VF20 and $100 in MS62. I think you'd be better off owning one MS62 rather than ten VF20s. When you go to sell, will a dealer buy 10 VF20s? He may already have more than he can sell in a year of those and won't want to buy any. It may hard for you to find 10 individuals to buy those coins.

There was a big drop in value for circulation coins post financial crisis. Been fairly steady since then with some signs of increasing values for top end coins. The RCM severely trashed the NCLT market starting in 2012 with orders of magnitude increases in # of releases. Starting to steady out a bit now that dealers and buyers have adjusted but no signs of a recovery. There is also a long term concern about possibly declining interest in coin collecting as a) more people move to digital transactions; and b) the ARP has removed the interesting older coins from circulation. In short (and very general terms), coins as an investment over the last 10+ years has not been a positive experience and is not something I would personally recommend. Collecting coins for interest and fun however is something I really enjoy. I just expect that when I go to sell a coin later on I will be lucky to break even and probably take a loss on it. Consider it paying 'rent' on the coin or an entertainment fee if you like. Like paying to see a movie.

Personally I tend to think of the coin market as having 3 main sectors. The common stuff resembles the commodity market (more highly correlated to bullion value where applicable; otherwise a low numismatic premium). The mid-range stuff resembles the stock market; although without the general long term upwards trend that the stock market has. And the high end stuff resembles the fine art market (value really depends on who shows up to the auction but most likely to show increased value over time due to competition among increasingly wealthy buyers).

Bullion coins more or less follow inflation over the long period, with monthly yearly fluctuations, depending on what's going on in the world. RCM stuff, unless it is really unique or special (less than 10% of the stuff they poop out) can usually be bought on the secondary market 3-4 years down the road at 30-50% discount of the issue price. Higher grade older stuff will keep up with inflation. Out hobby is not the place to expect any kind of long-range investment .. that's what the stock market is for. Enjoy it for the fun and rely on scarcity with supply and demand to guide you.

Thanks guys.

Is there any way to find out the original issue pricing for RCM NCLT?

I am having trouble distinguishing the various editions of Charlton's. I have the 2018 Coine Guide. It's pretty basic. What differentiates Vol One, Vol Two etc and why might I need them?

Thanks kuh_85, awesome!