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Platinum Spot Price Is Below Its Production Cost

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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 08/13/2018  11:20 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
At $798/oz, Platinum is way below its cost of mining already.

The average cash cost of mining Platinum is $829/oz, not including maintenance and other items. As a comparison, the cash cost of mining gold is $649/oz.

Including all items, the All-In-Sustained-Cost of mining Platinum is above $900/oz, for Gold the number is $850/oz.

Just to show how cheap Platinum is, and many miners will go belly up if price is kept below $900 for extended period of time.

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vonigohcr's Avatar
Canada
665 Posts
 Posted 08/13/2018  1:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vonigohcr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If what you say is correct and I have no data to refute it, sounds like there may be a correction coming. Unless there is a significant oversupply or there are alternate sources (cheap recycling), you cannot sustain sale for less than cost for any reasonable duration. My expectation is that there would be a supply crunch leading to a price climb or rebound.

I doubt that the miners will go belly up... they will just mothball the mine until the price recovers leading to an even greater supply constraint.

What is the source of your average sustained cost data? Is it possible that there is a discrepancy between average, production weighted average and median cost? If there is a big supplier (or group of suppliers) with low production costs, could they sustain a declining market demand putting higher cost suppliers out of business.

Opportunity?
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XavierOfGreen's Avatar
United States
2589 Posts
 Posted 08/13/2018  2:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XavierOfGreen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As vonigohcr states, recycling is a factor. In the United States, the majority of platinum "production" is actually sourced from recycling. The cost of producing raw platinum from recycling is presumably cheaper than that of mining. Thus if demand is low enough, demand can be fully met through recycled material rather and new production is unneeded resulting in a price that can be significantly lower than the mining cost. This can lead to a severe price spike in the future as if the price remains under the mining cost long enough, the mines will cease production leading to little flexibility in the supply should demand suddenly increase (as it takes time to put decommissioned mines back into operation).
https://web.archive.org/web/20170807223349/https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/...17-plati.pdf
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 08/14/2018  12:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Mining costs is one of the best marketing tools ever. There is 0 yes 0 truth to the mining production cost floor. The cost can easily be lowered by getting less hard to get things.

The best part is the people hyping mining costs saying how cheap a metal is is the one that's trying to sell you metals for "worthless" dollars.
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
16849 Posts
 Posted 08/15/2018  07:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There isn't a single "cost of mining platinum".

First, as others state above, not all platinum sources are equal - just as not all gold sources are equal. It's much cheaper to suck up nuggets from a shallow seafloor than dig a 2 km deep open pit mine, for example. Further, different countries will have different costs; it's much cheaper to hire miners in poor third-world dictatorships than in rich, highly unionized countries.

Second, platinum is rarely mined all by itself. It isn't even usually the primary reason for a mine's existence; it's usually produced as a profitable by-product of nickel or copper refining, a nice little side-earner rather than the core business of a company. If it becomes unprofitable for a specific company to reprocess their waste material to extract the platinum, then they'll simply stop doing it. But they'll keep mining for nickel or copper or whatever, so no miners will go belly-up.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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XavierOfGreen's Avatar
United States
2589 Posts
 Posted 08/15/2018  4:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XavierOfGreen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dropped another $32 an ounce today, I'm wondering how much lower it can go. Adjusted for inflation, the 20 year low in 1998 was around $521.
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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 08/21/2018  10:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I bought the dip and lowered the cost of my Platinum ETF to about $786/oz spot.

At current spot of $783/oz, it is never too late to start a position on Platinum; considering the price at 14-yr low and way below cost of mining.

JMHO
Edited by leon1998
08/21/2018 10:57 am
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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2018  1:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Platinum spot roared back to $796.

My long position is finally IN THE MONEY.
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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 09/19/2018  9:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Platinum spot at $818, as I am typing.

Continue to hold my Platinum ETF shares, more upside ahead.
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TheForce's Avatar
United States
4870 Posts
 Posted 09/19/2018  9:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TheForce to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If platinum and palladium are related, why is palladium spotting higher at $1,039.74?
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4504's Avatar
United States
379 Posts
 Posted 09/22/2018  10:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 4504 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To state the obvious, until the last few years platinum was usually around $300 or more an oz. spot over gold. Now that platinum is basically being priced as the junk metal over gold and palladium, it sure was a surprise to me. Remember when platinum was $1,900 an oz? And palladium was the junker of the three, lowest of the low (save for silver)?

Does not bother me a bit. Yes, I read and understand the reasons (or guesses) as to why this is. However, despite all of that, I remain convinced that these days that platinum is severely underpriced and that this would be an excellent time to pick up platinum. My crystal ball reveals to me that platinum will, some day, be back up to its old highs and beyond.

Not that I am a genius when it comes to investing in precious metals. I am still waiting for all those ads and opinion pieces that predicts $10,000 an oz. for gold to become true.

I feel sorry for the folks that bought rhodium on its climb up to $10,000 an oz. a few years ago. Can you imagine having bought a lot of it at say 8 or 9 thousand an oz. on its climb, figuring you would ride the upwave to who knows where? Then it dropped like a rock almost faster than you could run to sell it.

If so, you can't sell it without taking a severe loss and all your rhodium might as well be buried in the pyramids for all the good it is going for you or will do for you... at least right now. sad. With that being said, rhodium is currently enjoying highs it has not seen for years.

mike

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Gothic's Avatar
United States
300 Posts
 Posted 09/24/2018  3:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Gothic to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"Adjusted for inflation, the 20 year low in 1998 was around $521."

This may be the answer to where platinum is going. It has plunged for several years and 74% of those surveyed about platinum ( commodity futures) at Investing.com are STILL bullish. Maybe by <$600, bullishness will also plunge? A sign we may be approaching a bottom.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/platinum

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