I had not noticed in the description of the one found by louisvillekyshop: that one is described as a commemorative medal, larger than a solidus (1 1/4 solidus).
It appears to have been sold at least 5 times since it first emerged.
First time by The New York Sale in January 2010.
3 times by Kunker, there is a good photo from the last time here:
https://www.numisbids.com/sale/3024/lot/2052Another by Agora most recently.
A coin that changes hands very frequently is automatically suspicious. Medallions of this size for Theodosius were extremely rare. I wonder if any good provenance was provided for the one that they say emerged in 2008. Caveat emptor.
One of the two coins I show here is a copy of both dies of this medallion. The other is a copy of the obverse with a different reverse. I have now put away doubts about them being fake because there are several flaws on the obverse that are reproduced exactly in both. The question is now how they were created.
Either they were reproduced almost perfectly from the published auction photos, which I thing is hard. If it can be done it is very scary. Or someone who possessed that medallion has produced these fakes.
I now have those two fakes on loan to investigate and document. I am attaching better photos I just made.


These two fakes appear cast, because of the same flaws in both: scratch, dimples. I must say, this is becoming a bit damning for that medallion also.
It must have been in the possession of the criminals who made these two fakes. It is either the original used to cast one of these fakes and the obverse of the other. Or it may be another production of the same gang.
I remain very scared of collecting ancients :(