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 Replies: 10 / Views: 4,323 |
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Valued Member
United States
257 Posts |
I am hoping that someone more knowledgeable than I am can tell me why the 1948B 5 Francs coin from France is considered a key date with over-the-top catalog values at all grades. The Krause catalog lists this coin's value at between 10 times and 100 times the value of the same denomination minted in nearby years. Yet, over 28 million of these coins were minted, a number close to or more than double that of other years produced within four or five years. It doesn't make any sense to me, and I am hoping someone can shed some light. Thanks in advance.
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Valued Member
 United States
257 Posts |
I understand why no one can even pose a theory; the contradiction between the mintage numbers, the metal, and the listed values are beyond reconciliation. It seems it would take a superior mind to comfortably hold all contradictory facts in the mind at once.
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Valued Member
United States
451 Posts |
I also checked the population reports of this coin and it is very sparsely populated. My dealer sold a PCGS MS 62 for $160 recently.
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Valued Member
United States
257 Posts |
Any ideas as to why a population report would be so sparse when over 28 million were minted, and not all that long ago by world coin standards, and others of the same denomination in nearby years, with much lower mintage figures, sell for a fraction of what the 1948B goes for? I'm afraid I don't understand the sparse population, either. Sigh.....But I greatly appreciate your input!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5362 Posts |
fmtaxguy Mintage figures can be very misleading. What you really need to watch are actual market place populations. The number of coins reported for any year may be 1) a simple error 2) data unrelated to the actual date on the coin. 3) the number minted but NOT released. I am not really very familiar with French coins but wasn't there a demonetization shortly after this date? A low denomination in a period of hyper-inflation may have been retained as unneeded by the central bank. As I recall larger denomination coins were prevalent in 1948 and a 5 Franc may have been near worthless. In cases where a coin is underutilized the stockpile may be retained or destroyed. Mintage figures are not adjusted to reflect these forms of wholesale destruction. So survival is far more important than production. I know that whenever I search dealer junk boxes I routinely pick out every B mint coin from France that is not a cull. I have done that for many years since I realized how high book prices were. They are actually far less common than the types with no mint mark (Paris).
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Valued Member
United States
257 Posts |
Thanks for all the info. It is beginning to make sense, now. Is there an online source for population reports for world coins that won't cost me my collection to utilize? Thanks.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5362 Posts |
fmtaxguy There is no such reference in print that I am aware of - at least not for French coins.
Most collectors get to know one particular area of specialty (a few coin types) and in the process they "write" their own book on actual rarity. But the information gained is usually kept secret. It is too bad that most collectors don't share more but the fact is most do not.
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Valued Member
United States
257 Posts |
It is most unfortunate. But I disagree that "most" collectors specialize in one area enough to develop and keep their own data. For example, I collect world coins by year of issue. That covers a boatload of countries and territories. I could never become that much of an expert. Many collect new US quarter issues. No book there, really. So if you are one who has expertise and you have created a book of information, why not share it? C'mon, play nice and share!
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Valued Member
United States
365 Posts |
There's another factor here that hasn't been pointed out yet. There are two kinds of 1948Bs out there in that 28 million population: the open 9 and the closed 9 of the date. The open 9 is the more common of the two, and carries a book value of 200 euros in AU58. (That drops precipitously in lower circulated grades.) The closed nine is the 'white whale'; I've not seen one in my 5 or so years of French coin collecting. The catalog does not offer a valuation for AU grades and above, suggesting their rarity--and what collectors might offer to have an MS specimen--to be very great. That said, there's a PCGS MS62 of the open nine that someone's been posting for very short stints on ebay, and they've not been successful getting the price they want (over 200 USD). I've been keeping my eye out for it, to see if the seller would list it at a more affordable price. Confirms the old adage, cat val doesn't always tell you what you will actually be able to get for it! -SCS |
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Valued Member
United States
365 Posts |
Just thought of an additional note, after looking over my own list of holdings in this type: I still need a good 1945 closed 9, 1949 open 9; and these two 1948Bs. That means I've been able to come across all the other dates and varieties, including the 1948 closed 9, the 45C (2.2 mill) and 46C (1.2 mill; each is a high value date). Each of these has a much lower mintage than the 1948Bs, and yet, I've been able to acquire decent examples of them (in some cases several). I've yet to see either 48B. Gives some perspective on the rarity and reliability of simple mintage numbers.
What the back story is on why these are so rare, I've not yet found any printed source that can tell it. Next time in France, that's the kind of thing I'd ask certain top dealers, but they themselves might not even know.
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Pillar of the Community
Luxembourg
588 Posts |
For French coins there are two print issues that give a very good overview of what exists and what you may have to pay for them. There are Le Franc and the Gadoury. I prefer the Le Franc. I don't know of any web page giving all those information, except maybe the sites of the large French dealers like cgb.fr I don't think it is possible to get one reference with all information of all countries. Even those issues can never be completely up to date. To get back to this series: there are indeed some very rare open or closed 9 varieties for common years. I am still missing both closed 9s from 1948 but I was lucky to find a closed 9 from 1945 in an ebay lot for a couple of $ |
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Replies: 10 / Views: 4,323 |
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Posted 02/24/2011 10:01 pm
