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 Replies: 11 / Views: 2,851 |
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Following is a post I made at another location, in answer to a person's desire to enter the reselling arena for modern graded commemoratives and bullion coins. I ask for comments - was I off-base here? What do you think? The market in graded bullion is completely speculative. It is not based on any degree of rarity, either conditional or otherwise. There is no dearth of high MS/PF grades of any but a very few commemoratives or bullion coins, and given the US Mint's apparent willingness to take advantage of this speculative market, I forsee no issues of real rarity going forward.
The Mint is producing coins of the highest quality it has ever achieved. An MS/PF70 grade on a Mint issue is no longer an achievement; indeed, receiving a current commem or bullion coin which would grade less than MS/PF68 is cause for alarm on the part of the recipient.
The "market" in modern commems and bullion is, as I said, purely speculative. It's a yearly bubble created by the Mint-originated hype surrounding new issues, perpetuated by the TPG's who hype the First Strike illusion and the artificial value of their slabs, and the resellers who hype the MS/PF70 "rarity factor." It is not sustainable in any long-term sense, because there is no underlying rarity to support such demand. You need look no further than Completed Items searches for older examples of these issues to see what I'm saying here.
In my opinion, to take advantage of this market bubble is to relieve unknowing buyers of money they would not be spending had they waited a couple of years to add these coins to their collections. It is one of the two major problems currently facing numismatics as a whole, the other being the proliferation of alphabet slabbers who, facilitated by ebay and other online auction venues, have made a perversion of the best intentions of the "true" TPG's into the current "reality" of the marketplace.
Now, as a former moderator of an online buy/sell forum, I stand very strongly in favor of the "caveat emptor" concept. There is, to me, much responsibility to be laid at the feet of hyperactive buyers who do not bother to educate themselves before throwing their money around. The same can be said of those who pay premiums for new Mustangs or Vipers, or those who must have the newest computer hardware as soon as it is produced, even though it'll be obsolete in six months and unavailable next year. It is part and parcel of the capitalist system to be able to make initial excessive profits to recoup one's production costs, knowing that in the longer term your margins will dwindle because of marketplace competition. However, the system requires willing participants on both sides of the transaction, and only one side is unaware of what's really happening.
Remember, I speak only for myself here. There are those who share my opinion in the world of numismatics, and there are those who would diametrically disagree with me. There are strong arguments on the other side, too. I do not ask that you walk away from your proposed path; I merely request that you become aware of the bigger picture, and choose your actions accordingly.
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Member
United States
3242 Posts |
Very well said SuperDave!!!!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7123 Posts |
Dave I believe all that you stated to be accurate,,
If someone has a problem with the concept then they have not thrown away enough dollars yet .
One fine example are the first strike graded coins,, which have flooded the bullion market,, anyone who pays extra for the label or for that matter the plastic has not been paying attention.
Rick
Edited by Metalman
10/29/2006 11:13 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Dave, that is an excellent assessment of that particular market. I applaud you for your post, both here and elsewhere. I believe the same thing can be said for most Moderns. I don't collect modern stuff, but I will get the coins I need for my type set about 2-3 years after they come out. I've saved a load of money that way.
And if I get slabbed examples (pretty rare occurrence for me) I'll get 69s rather than 70s. Who the heck can really tell the difference? I sure can't.
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Pillar of the Community
Belgium
2078 Posts |
Very eloquently said I find on the Monnaie de Paris coins they drop from 100 % excess price at issue to 10% over a few years then to climb slowly back up to 30 % And we are talking 2000 -3000 coins series here . It is like postage stamps in 1970 when Burundi made the biggest and the most colorfull pieces of paper with glue on it  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2365 Posts |
I too am in agreement with what you said and how you said it. Applause!!!
While I do purchase Commens I only buy the ones that appeal to me and don't expect any short term gains.
Thank you for your well stated "opinion"!
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New Member
United States
45 Posts |
Bingo  , SuperDave you hit the nail on the head to an issue most "new" collectors miss. The US mint has refined the minting for commemoratives, billion and proof coins to an art. One should be alarmed of they get a coin graded MS/PF 68, there's no reason one of these modern coins should be that low. Again it comes down to education and knowing what you're looking at. Numismatics in general, can be a very unforgiving, frustrating hobby. Then throw in all the commemorative, proofs, billion, errors, etc. and "wow". But armed with the right knowledge it can be very rewarding. Most new collectors see the auction prices, the billion market, or the word "commemorative", then get caught up listening to all the hype about this and that, place all those things together and miss the whole point completely. To me Numismatics is about holding a piece of time or history in your hand. It 's about the design and what that design represents, not the rarity of the coin at that time or the chance it'll be worth a fortune in the future. It's about learning, about sharing and about fun, first and foremost. Everything else is just a bonus. Oh and here's a newsflash for those who think their going to retire off the sale of one of them new commemoratives or billion coins. It's not going to happen, At least not in your lifetime. History has shown that only "TIME" can make a rare coin rare. I, like dsking; buy what I like. Whether it's a commemorative, a proof, a regular strike, or whatever. But sometimes, just sometimes I think it's so "darn prurdy" that one just isn't enough  . |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
751 Posts |
quote:
Originally posted by SuperDave
[applause] |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1840 Posts |
How can someone fault you for posting your opinion on an Internet forum?
While I don't completely agree with your opinion, your argument makes several valid points. My personal opinion is that you can't fault the seller of the coins as long as they are up-front about the product being sold. Everything else is up to the consumer.
What happened? Did you hurt someones feelings?
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
I do not think you were off base at all in your comments
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1267 Posts |
But what would the coin vault have left to hawk to unsuspecting newbies if you took away graded bullion? The grading companies need new venues, and they love grading bullion.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1267 Posts |
BTW, I agree with SuperDave. |
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Replies: 11 / Views: 2,851 |
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Posted 10/29/2006 11:11 am
