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Is The Coin Market Headed For A Crash?

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Author Previous TopicReplies: 15 / Views: 1,603Next Topic  
Valued Member
stmpcol's Avatar
United States
223 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2006  5:28 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add stmpcol to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
With all the new TPG services giving out high MS66 & 67 can 68s & 69s be far behind? Will NGC & PCGS loosen there standards and give higher grades? Why not send that MS63 to one of these services and get a couple grades higher. People seem to be willing to pay no matter who grades it as long as the grade is high. Sell it on ebay and go back and buy that MS64 by NGC and put some cash in your pocket to boot. What's going to happen when this all comes tumbling down?
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
United States
23522 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2006  6:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The TPG's are currently grading non-Moderns as tightly as they've ever done. That MS63 you send in will come back MS61/62 if it's older than 1950.
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Bryan1315's Avatar
United States
14454 Posts
 Posted 11/29/2006  8:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bryan1315 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree its definitely not a good time to be sending coins in for a regrade to NGC or PCGS. As far as the back yard shade tree slabbers their market could crash at any time because pretty soon the uneducated buyers that are buying these coins will become more educated and no one will be buying these things and their value will be pretty much worthless atleast that is if we have anything to do with it, that is why we try to spread as much knowledge as possible to the new collector so they cab make sound decisions and not pay $300.00 for a MS-67 coin that if graded correctly would be a $30.00 MS63
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AuldFartte's Avatar
United States
830 Posts
 Posted 11/30/2006  10:54 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add AuldFartte to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with Bryan - the third and fourth tier of useless so-called TPGs will disappear after a while. Someone will always be there to try to scam unsuspecting consumers though. The best defense is education.
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amac44's Avatar
United States
3242 Posts
 Posted 11/30/2006  11:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amac44 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I try to keep my coin raw but the is some I will be getting graded soon as I get some Extra cash. But seam like that day will never come
I seen it crash in the 80s and I hope it doesn't do it again
Edited by amac44
11/30/2006 11:04 am
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Silver Dollar's Avatar
United States
287 Posts
 Posted 12/20/2006  10:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver Dollar to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Grading is more stringent than ever. With the vast knowledge through the internet today people are more aware of buying a correctly graded coin. With that in mind I do not think that the market will crash or even cool as everyone seems to holding onto there collections tighter than ever for fear of selling too cheaply.
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Guido's Avatar
United States
390 Posts
 Posted 12/22/2006  5:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Guido to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think it all comes down to supply and demand. There is a limited number of coins available and the number of new collectors or investors keeps increasing. But, if prices go up to far, to fast, then I think there will be a correction, but I don't know about a crash. Coin collecting is a long term deal (or investment if that's why people do it), so price swings will happen over time. It just like the housing market. Home prices went crazy for 3 to 5 years before 2006, but now prices are coming down, but will only crash if something big happens economically to really mess up the economy. Same thing with coins.
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scoutjim99's Avatar
United States
4589 Posts
 Posted 12/22/2006  5:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scoutjim99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I see it unfortunately going the way of the sport card market a big crash all due to greed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. However I sure pray that I am wrong
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TSmith3510's Avatar
United States
455 Posts
 Posted 12/22/2006  6:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TSmith3510 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
[quote]Originally posted by Guido

...if prices go up to far, to fast, then I think there will be a correction, but I don't know about a crash...



I agree we may see a correction, it wouldn't be healthy for the market if it kept going up up up. Two steps forward, one step back is a much better recipe for a strong market over time. I'll gladly use the dips to add to my collection at reduced prices.
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Guido's Avatar
United States
390 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2006  01:17 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Guido to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think it also depends on where the price of gold and silver goes. If those prices keep increasing, I think the base price of coins will as well. There is a certain melt value that would continue to increase which could offset the correction for the feeding frenzy going on right now.
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Spider5689's Avatar
United States
2269 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2006  09:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Spider5689 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't see a crash anytime soon. The dollar is still very unpredictable combined with the rising cost of oil, it leaves the silver and gold market with some room for growth. I am optimistic about gold reaching $700 by mid 2007, like it did in 2006. Prices might stabilize for a while, but with the growing demand oversees from China and India, gold and silver should not drop to levels we have seen in the late 80's or early 90's. While there may be a correction, it should not be that drastic that everyone will feel the need to dump all of their holdings, thus causing the market to crash.
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habiru001's Avatar
United States
236 Posts
 Posted 12/24/2006  12:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add habiru001 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For my money RAW is the way to go. I will not purchase slabbed coins. Why? Because as someone just said, education is the key- Also, there are people who believe that "Cracking slabs" is the way to make money- So here's the rub--if the person beholding his treasuree coin thinks it can get a better grade somewhere else- then you have already discredited the third party graders- Now look at it this way-- Have you noticed in the produce markets in your super markets- that when the word Organic is applied to a given item- the price is obscene compared to the items that are not marked ORganic.Yet these same people who pay those prices have no compunction about eating junk food at the fast-food places. So my friends. It is all about money. Stay with the Raw. YOu can't have a beautiful album with a bunch of slabs. So be it. Dewey
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Metalman's Avatar
United States
7123 Posts
 Posted 12/24/2006  03:47 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Metalman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I believe that Dewey has made the right suggestion,, want to get good prices for your coins without paying someone else,, stop paying someone else !!

There is no security in the TPG's I truly believe that the shoe will drop on all TPG's not just the back yard slabbers, but all of them once the court system fills up a few cells with perpetrators of fallacy of stability and consistency that the TPG's have bought and paid for in the market place !!

Rick

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Silver Dollar's Avatar
United States
287 Posts
 Posted 12/30/2006  11:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver Dollar to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with Metalman and habiru001. With problems the TPG services have encountered, I believe people are losing confidence and faith in their grading. Raw coins excerise our grading skills and may make us all better aware of condition.
Valued Member
Ferret Lord's Avatar
United States
218 Posts
 Posted 12/31/2006  01:19 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ferret Lord to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
with the exception of key dates I wouldnt be sending in anything for grading
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Metalman's Avatar
United States
7123 Posts
 Posted 12/31/2006  03:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Metalman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sending coins in is only half of the equation,, the other half is buying slabbed coins,, until the collectors get togehter and stop paying premiums because the coin is slabbed, then we as a collective group have no power over our own market place.

The TPG's will continue to dictate by manipulation of the POP reports and such things as registry sets and the hype that has been created by them within the Hobby driving a sensationalism that is growing rather than shrinking.

The overall ability of the main stream numismatist is diminishing ,,grading skills are being replaced by dollars and the ability to purchase coins without knowledge has never been at a higher level than it is today,, and that trend is growing.

We hear the words all the time buy the coin not the plastic,, but when you take an honest look at the market is that what you see ?

Rick

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