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No Double Dip--We're In A Depression--Edelson

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fenton's Avatar
United States
4989 Posts
 Posted 09/15/2011  12:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fenton to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The 1000% debt to GDP ratio cited in the article seems factually inaccurate. The U.S. Federal debt is 100% of GDP (about 15T) and 40% of that is owed to itself so, in practice, the government is only paying interest on about 10T of that or about 60% of GDP.

That is the figure economists care about -- debt held by the public / GDP. Over 100% is terrible. 60% is manageable if we get our fiscal house in order not yet a crises.

Lending is also a zero sum game. For every dollar a government or corporation borrows, there is an asset holder on the other end. The U.S. controls much, but not all, of the world's assets. That is why we have 400+ billionaires, etc... Total US assets are on the order of 188T or 13-14X GDP. Obviously, we have 56T million below the poverty line in the U.S. who have no concept that our nation is that rich but, in aggregate, all those billionaires and their holdings amount to a vast amount of capital. Contrary to popular mythology, few are job creators and there is little or no trickle down so the only way to really recycle that capital is for them to give it away (i.e. Buffett's initiatives) or for it to get taxed and redistributed:

http://rutledgecapital.com/2009/05/...ion-134xgdp/

Edited by fenton
09/15/2011 12:55 am
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 09/15/2011  6:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Government figures do not include ANY of the unfunded liabilities that they have promised to pay. When all of that is added up, depending on whose figures you trust and use, the total amount owed is in the area of $75-125T. The upper range of this is easily 6-7x the total national output. Of course, not all of this is due at one time. It stretches out over decades and so can the payments on it.

The bottom line is that we owe a lot of money and we very well may not be able to pay it back. This is hardly surprising because the debt is not shrinking, it is still growing and looks as if it will continue to grow for at least several more years. At some point, we need to stop the growth of the debt and begin paying it down. Other than for a World War II style national survival issue, I see no reason to continue squandering money that we do not have. It's bad when a person does this, when a business does this, when a local government does this, and it is very likely to be bad when a national government does it too. We really do need to ask ourselves, "Do we really want to be like Greece?". If we do, then we should stay on the same path we are on now and that will be the case.
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 09/16/2011  6:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The difference between US and Greece is there's nobody big enuf to bail us out.
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Ed_B's Avatar
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4008 Posts
 Posted 09/17/2011  7:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes, that is one difference. The other is that Greece has no industrial base to speak of. We do but it has been weakened considerably over the last 10 or so years.
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