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Pm Prices Are Falling.

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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  06:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trout1105 to your friends list
The market last week had a couple of nervous twitches of a dollar or more and settled/got manipulated back again.
It makes me wonder if there is going to be a spike shortly
I have been quietly buying a couple of grands worth of silver over the last 2 weeks and intend to do the same until the price spikes again.
I really cannot see silver staying at 31-32 bucks for much longer tho, So I am getting in while I can afford it.
Valued Member
United States
299 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  07:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Piffin to your friends list
I do expect silver to take off at some point. Meanwhile, I am not waiting on that to make money from it.

SLV is trading in a range ( manipulated possibly) from about 30 to 34.50.
So as it gets near the low end, I buy, and as it gets near the high end I sell. Then I take the c. 10% profits and buy more physical with it.

You guys waiting for 20 to buy physical will be waiting forever. If we ever see twenty dollar physical again, the will have already hit the fan.
Besides, as the price slides lower, there is less available to buy
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  7:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
If we ever see twenty dollar physical again, the will have already hit the fan.
Besides, as the price slides lower, there is less available to buy


I guess I have a little bit of a different opinion about that. I can tell you from experience that there was no shortage of silver being sold when the price bounced between $9-18 between the Fall of 2008 and the Fall of 2010. ebay ran PM auctions 24/7, just like now. Dealers dealt and buys bought with nary a hiccup, and I went from zero silver to 750 oz. of it in two breathless years. If I'd had the money, I surely would have been able to buy double that figure in the same period, judging by the number of auctions I lost back then. Those years spoiled me, because I never knew silver cost anymore than my average SAE or SML price of $14-17 an oz. If we have another stock market crash or a recession, I believe silver will bottom out once again, especially if it's a prolonged recession. I don't think the offal has to hit the fan for PM to drop off a cliff again. We have the ingredients for it, right now. Banks are still leveraged up to their eyeballs. Credit default swaps are still the riskiest, most deleterious trade on the planet. The stock market has risen to within 700 points or so of the 2007 all-time highs and TPTB might think it's ripe for the picking once again now that middle class is back in the game after an extended break. Europe is still on the brink of a major banking disaster. Interest rates are still dragging the pavement. Gas is right back where it was in 2008, before the plug was pulled and it dropped to what, $20 a barrel? China's economy is slowing at a disconcerting rate. Housing is still considered overpriced by many experts and poised to plunge deeper underwater. I could truly go on. IMO, the last "recovery" was made possible by the printing press, and I don't know how many more times they can go to that well before it runs dry. It wouldn't surprise me to see a major PM drop before or soon after the next election, depending on the winner, which I "assume" will be the incumbent.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  8:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
The one thing that impresses me is the above-ground ounces of silver, which has shrunk from almost a billion to almost none.

When it hits zero, you can only dig so fast, and all the market manipulation in the world won't create another fizzical ounce.

That's when it gets real interesting.

Agreed, Fredd. I also wonder about what will happen if some really big money comes into the paper silver market and then stands for delivery. It's pretty clear from the info on the net that the CME / COMEX does not have the physical silver necessary to back up more than a few percent of its sales. All but a few of these contracts settle for cash, so whatever physical metal is in their vaults can be leased or loaned out for a fee and they are doing that. It will be quite a day of reckoning when more delivery is demanded than they can fill.


Quote:
I can tell you from experience that there was no shortage of silver being sold when the price bounced between $9-18 between the Fall of 2008 and the Fall of 2010.

That may depend on where you are looking. I have seen times in the past couple of years where the local coin shops had very little inventory to sell and could not get more for some weeks. Either that or they were holding metal and simply refusing to sell it at those low prices. It was hard to know which.

I'm not sure that ebay represents the whole picture on this, although it does have its uses.
Valued Member
United States
299 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  8:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Piffin to your friends list
I laugh when I read the word, "Recovery", not at you traevin, but at the press and pols.

Yes there is always silver on ebay but I'll wager you were paying a good bit over spot to get it. The mint itself dried up! The smart money was sitting on their silver, not selling it at a loss.
I commend you the foresight to stock up when you did
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  10:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
I laugh when I read the word, "Recovery", not at you traevin, but at the press and pols.

Yes there is always silver on ebay but I'll wager you were paying a good bit over spot to get it. The mint itself dried up! The smart money was sitting on their silver, not selling it at a loss.
I commend you the foresight to stock up when you did


I know what you mean. For millions of Americans, there was no recovery. So many seniors were wiped out and they will never have time to recover what was lost. The lion's share of my sympathy lies with them.



But about the silver collection, funny thing is, I've never bought an ounce of silver from any distributor, mint, pawn shop, coin shop, or anywhere else besides ebay and I never paid what the big retailers ask. Of course, I also never did the BINs on ebay; just auctions. But there's a catch. It takes a ton of research and perseverance to figure out exactly what one should pay for a particular coin and I had to be willing to stick to my plan regardless of outcome. I typically had to put in an average of 29 losing bids on a snipe program for every 1 winning auction to get the lowest price. It was really frustrating at times. So it takes a lot more time and energy than picking up the phone and calling a dealer or stopping in at the local coin shop and having the PMs there for the taking. The way I did was a real hassle; but believe me, I'm a disabled vet on a shoestring budget, then and now, so I had no choice but to get the best deals or get nothing at all.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  10:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list
No recovery a play with numbers on unemployment as well as inflation. Those that gave up looking aren't included as well as many necessary items not included in inflations
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  11:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
It will be quite a day of reckoning when more delivery is demanded than they can fill.


And I see the possibility of that within five years. Juggle numbers all you want, but when the users, not just speculators, need x million ounces to continue their operations, paper silver won't cut it.
Pillar of the Community
United States
526 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2012  12:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Freedom to your friends list
This is my thought process on PM pricing. Every month I buy at least $200 dollars of silver/gold/whatever. It can take the form of Peace/Morgan dollars, Quarter Eagles, ASE's and even silver Proof Sets. I just don't care as long as it contains a PM. I have fifteen years until I retire, that hoard should be quite large by then and it will supplement my retirement, SS and my pension.

I prefer coins over actual bullion in the belief that if PM's do fall, the coins would retain some numismatic value
instead of just falling bullion prices.

That is my take on PM's. With that said, If it catches my eye, it goes on my want list
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2012  7:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Juggle numbers all you want, but when the users, not just speculators, need x million ounces to continue their operations, paper silver won't cut it.

Right on, Fredd! Paper silver is not: 1) the most electrically conductive metal known to man; 2) it isn't the most light reflective metal known to man; and 3) it won't make any of those new comm circuits, super weapons, or photo-voltaic cells. So much for paper!

When the big silver users have to bid against each other for what little supply remains, THAT is when we will find the true value of silver. Heck, for the right bribe, er, price, I might even sell MY silver!
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2012  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list
Yes and the problem with selling at a high price (in dire times especially) what do you replace it with
Pillar of the Community
United States
3077 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2012  8:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yotie to your friends list
steel brass and lead maybe?
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2012  6:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Yes and the problem with selling at a high price (in dire times especially) what do you replace it with

It may be some time before it can be replaced, if ever. If it can feed my family and get us through the worst of what comes, then it will have served its intended purpose.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2012  11:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
It may be some time before it can be replaced, if ever. If it can feed my family and get us through the worst of what comes, then it will have served its intended purpose.




Wise words. I believe things almost have to get much worse before they get better. And I'm an optimist.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2012  6:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
I believe things almost have to get much worse before they get better. And I'm an optimist.

Thanks for the support, Traevin. It's appreciated!

Looking at the world today is a real exercise in patience. There just seems to be so many things about to boil over and way too many people trying to treat the symptoms rather than the root causes of these problems. This gives me little hope that some very nasty problems can be avoided for too much longer. It would not surprise me a bit if we were to have a US dollar collapse or a worse than 1930s style depression. Having a little land on which to grow a garden and maybe raise a few chickens seems a real good idea about now. So too is having some PMs for barter, some useful skills, and some like-minded family and friends on whom to depend. As they say on SGT Report, "We're all in this together".
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