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Mint Sets And Junk Silver Prices

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Author Previous TopicReplies: 19 / Views: 3,083Next Topic Page 2 of 2
Pillar of the Community
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 Posted 04/21/2012  11:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list

Quote:
I actually think you would, but I'm thinking $15 silver is a long shot. For items like those, I think the percentage spread between melt and completed sales decreases as the price of silver goes up. In other words, there's not a high nominal dollar component of the price that is related to the numismatic value and condition.


Obviously any prediction of future precious metal prices is a guess, but I was really quite surprised at how little numismatic value there was in those sets.

Thanks for the reply!

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 Posted 04/23/2012  11:05 am  Show Profile   Check wheatiefan's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add wheatiefan to your friends list
Larsdog,

I have recommended late 1950s or early 1960s proof sets to collectors to fill holes in their type sets. I have recommended this since the price of silver was in the $4-6 range.

The premium over spot price has always been minimal.

Basically you pay for the silver coins and get the base-metal coins for free.

Of course, if you were to buy a $1000 bag of silver coins, many of them would be 'uncirculated' or even proof coins of this time frame. They were hoarded in large amounts.
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 Posted 04/23/2012  3:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add akane17 to your friends list
If silver falls to $15, I would guess the price on the mint sets would come down, but not by the same rate. You'll get a lot of people who think silver HAS to go back up in value so they'll overpay just to get in. I don't get that logic though, silver has to double in value for you to make a 10-20% markup.

Silver @ $31.66 and sets are selling for $40-45 each...
Silver @ $15? I would guess they'll get around $30-35 each
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 Posted 04/23/2012  5:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silvercoinrn to your friends list
if silver falls that much I will be a major buyer. other countries will end up buying all of our available PMs if that is the case and teh price will end up sky rocketing.
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 Posted 04/23/2012  6:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
Thanks for sharing your opinions. Good food for thought!
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 Posted 05/03/2012  9:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
Silver just dropped through $30.
Anyone smell BEAR yet?!?
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 Posted 05/04/2012  11:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list
I just moved this topic to the 'Precious Metals & Bullion - Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum' forum.

I think it could benefit from the input of the regulars.
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 Posted 05/05/2012  12:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
That's fine if you think this is where it belongs. My point is about the relatively low markup for 90% silver sets (pre-65 U.S.) and how mint sets are selling for little more that their junk silver value so the numismatic value of the sets themselves seems low. Anyone interested in those sets would want to watch the bullion markets to time a purchase, but the markets themselves weren't the focus of the topic.
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 Posted 05/05/2012  01:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list
Gotcha.

It can go either way. I was hoping some of the bullion regulars might have an opinion.

But I can move it back if you prefer or if the conversation stagnates.
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 Posted 05/05/2012  01:54 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list
larsdog,

In 2008-2009, I saw the US Mint sets selling in the low $20's on ebay auctions. Silver was $9-13 at the time. I don't remember the dates of all of them but it seemed to be across the spectrum. Plenty of sellers, also. Some people might have thought about waiting it out but after 6-12 months of falling prices, most seemed to change their tune. Hope that helps.
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 Posted 05/08/2012  5:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
jbuck,
Here is fine. I'm not picky.

traevin,
Thanks for the info. Let's assume $11 per ounce. That would be an 8:1 junk silver ratio. With a face value of $1.70, that's $13.60 for the junk silver alone and $6.40+ for the numismatic value. You can get P&D sets for 1968, 1969, etc. for $10 or less, so you would expect 1964 to go for at least $10 even if silver was free. It sounds like my original estimate was reasonably close. I should be able to pick up '59 through '64 for about half of what they are going for now IF (and that's a BIG if) silver tanks to $15 an ounce. It sure has been heading south lately and it "feels" like the precious metals crash of 1980-81. The historical price chart also look eerily familiar!
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 Posted 05/12/2012  2:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
Silver just keeps dropping!
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 Posted 05/12/2012  7:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list
LD,

If you use the 2011 highs as a reference point, then the drop has indeed been pretty spectacular. But for the price to halve again from the current spot, that might be expecting too much. IJDK.
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 Posted 05/13/2012  3:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
My prediction is based on history. I remember the spectacular run-up in precious metals in 1980 and the equally spectacular crash. Silver was exacerbated by the Hunt Bros trying to corner the market, but even without that spike it was a big run-up. Shops opened up everywhere - SELL YOUR GOLD! Toward the end of the cycle the airwaves were saturated with ads telling us to BUY GOLD! Then the bottom fell out of the market. Silver tanked all the way to $5. It rebounded to $15 once, back to $5, rebound to $10, back to $5 and pretty much stayed there until 2004. Gold was a more modest crash from $800 to $400. The silver:gold ratio was in the 80:1 ballpark for years. I think silver is still OVERpriced relative to gold. That's why I predict $15 silver and $1200 gold in a year or two as long as the Euro crisis doesn't tank the economy. But hey, guessing is free! I'm still waiting for a while before buying anything I need with 90% silver.
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 Posted 05/13/2012  3:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list
CORRECTION: The gold/silver ratio hasn't been as stead as I remembered. It looks like 60:1 is a better average which would lead to $20 silver if gold tanks to $1200. I think $20 is my new target price.
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