Market Trends And Costs

Although, do we take into consideration that some percentage of ebay historic auction prices are driven from buyers who do not have an in-depth understanding of numismatics and subsequent value? The question is what percentage?

And do we also have to discount this statement/question when it comes to well known coins such as a 16-D 10c. or anything else in that coins category of rarity?

Most series will have enough completed sales that you can get a market range and just ignore the small amount that go real high or real low.

Most people even if they dont know that series can look up price values and other auctions ect since it is online, I would suspect that the number of buyers that really have 0 clue is smaller than we think. Then of course theres also availability for some coins. Even though numis may have something for say 150 if youre having a real hard time finding one or one you like youll pay more so you dont lose out, but that happens everywhere not just ebay

I offer coins in my inventory for what I believe is a fair price to the buyer and to myself. This takes into account not only what similarly graded coins have sold for at auction, but also the individual qualities of the particular coin and how "choice" the coin is for the grade. Sometimes, this will seem like quite a bit for those without experience in the niche while at other times folks might be surprised at how relatively low something will be offered.

FMV is what a buyer will pay and what a seller will accept. Eye appeal, luster, strike, color, etc, all come into play and the value is determined by all of the above. Some auction prices reflect spectacular examples and others not so much... so auction prices are a tool but not the answer. Quality always commands a premium... when buying and selling.

The post by linxlvr brings up a good point. Material that is commonly traded is either slightly overvalued or is accurately valued on the Greysheet while more scarce material is generally undervalued. I will not get into the politics or theory why this is the case, but it is the case. As an example, most classic commems are fully priced in the Greysheet and are tough to move at those levels unless they are superb for the grade. Morgan dollars are also generally properly priced and sell close to the prices indicated. Better date Seated and Barber coins, however, are wildly underpriced and have been like this for years. It is not unusal to be required to pay 2x or even 3x Greysheet to obtain nicer Barber and Seated material and this is for accurately graded pieces where the buyer is educated and is not being ripped off.

I'd be happy to discuss these coins anytime you would like. In the late 1990s I gave a long, hard look at attempting either an AU IHC set, a full horn EF Buffalo set or a VF Barber half dollar set. Any of those three sets needed scrupulously original coins and I would not accept anything less. After a year or so of analysis I determined that AU IHCs can always be found for a price and that EF Buffalos could also be found, but sometimes without a full horn. Original, mid-grade Barber half dollars, however, did not exist in any meaningful numbers.

I spent the next five years building a complete VF set in the two volume Library of Coins albums. The only two coins I could not find with original skin and/or VF were the 1893-S and 1904-S. Eventually, I sold the set in pieces. The 1893-S was an original F15 and the 1904-S was a slightly boinked F12. Before I sold the set I had 125 VF/EF Barber half dollars and Coin Values magazine used the coins in my set to build a photographic grading guide for an issue in 2005 or 2006 where I also wrote the feature article on the set. The set was tough to build, but I was in a much better position than others since I am a full-time coin dealer who attends major shows and auctions.

Back in the early 2000s I had to pay 2x Greysheet for many of the original VF Barber half dollars. By 2004 or thereabouts the series exploded (relatively) in popularity and prices advanced. Aside from a few coins (1893-S, 1897-S and 1904-S) you can still find F12 Barber halves for around Greysheet, but those three tougher coins can cost far more if nice. Additionally, once the VF/EF range is reached then the Greysheet is woefully out of touch, in my opinion, with most issues in the set. The AU coins are easier to find as are the MS pieces.

Even though I sold the set years ago, I still have a fondness for the series and use the revers of a PCGS MS66 1892 Barber half as my avatar and also display it prominently on my website. I also stumbled upon a full-time dealer a few years ago who thought so little of the series that he sold me a completely original 1893-S for less than Greysheet while I also paid over 2x Greysheet for a choice VF 1904-S. My opinion is that this series will not drop in price and if you are intent on collecting them that VF is around the entry point for value and detail. Buy original skin coins with good eye appeal and do not be afraid to pay up for uber-choice pieces.

I apologize for rambling on within this thread and hope that I did not hijack the thread for other folks.

Thank you for the kind words. I generally do not carry AU Mercs and instead concentrate on gem or near-gem type as well as circulated earlier dates. I don't know that I am allowed to place a link to my site on the boards since I don't have that many posts, but my business name is Thomas Bush Numismatics.