Is The Modern Coin Market On The Verge Of Dying?

@Darth,

We can't know for sure if the Morgan market would have developed into what it is without the help of promoters and speculators. Think of all of the capstone Morgan dollar promotions: GSA Sale, Redfield Sale, Binion Sale, Continental Bank Sale... just to name a few. The Morgan dollar was massaged into the collector consciousness and became the most popular classic coin to collect. Every coin dealer will buy uncirculated Morgan dollars from you, but only a small percentage will buy moderns. I offered a top tier set to a known dealer, believing that at least one of her clients would like to have the opportunity to put this quality set away- it is likely the finest known and finest ever assembled- I was curtly told- not interested. I was advised to talk to one or two other dealers- neither of whom I'd ever do business with - or recommend any of my friends to work with.

To me, this is telling. It tells me that the mainstream dealer doesn't value moderns, doesn't buy into the possibility that they have any real value in the marketplace. It also shows disdain for those that do collect them.

For the last 35 years until today this is the number one problem for moderns; dealers and most old time collectors hate them.

In the long run this will be their greatest strenght. The best collectibles are usually things that were everywhere in their day but everyone hated them. Everybody sees them and knows what they are but very few survive because everyone hated them. People notice things that are widely derided. Many of the biggest names in the hobby are modern bashers or have been in the past. This just adds to the allure and the interest.

Even HSN's coin "expert", Mike Meszak, recently said that all "real coins" are old coins right before trying to sell a modern silver eagle!

They can't hold this market in check forever because they have to supply the coins in demand. When a customer comes in for a $3 1971 mint set they aren't going to be able to sell them a VG Barber dime instead.

The reason that people cared so much and promoted the VAMs, is because Morgans were so plentiful. There are scores of Ike Varieties- you just don't know about them.

c

"There are scores of Ike Varieties- you just don't know about them." Ike's are also plentiful. A look at the mintage figures spanning a short time compared to Morgans will show that.

Well actually I do and collect some of the Ike varieties. I also collect gem toned Ike proofs. I am at the end of the day a value investor (stocks & coins) so I appreciate a good buy with upside potential. What interested me in this topic is when Morgans were compared to Ike's as being massaged and manipulated into their "coin status". There is some truth to that however they would not have been able to be massaged into that status had there been no desirable attributes to appeal to collectors. Morgans were initially not well received by the general public. That helped create one of the attributes of these coins as so many went into storage and never circulated providing a multitude of mint state specimens, some of which are beatifully toned. Ike's were minted using modern coining machinery/techniques so you don't see the "glaring" varieties/mishaps that occured when silver dollars were produced in the late 1800's early 1900's. Much of the allure of older coins are the classic designs & beautiful coins that were produced with antiquated machinery compared to what's available today. Those techniques also produced some fabulous varieties. This also supports the arguement that modern varieties may have a good deal of upside valuation as not as many are produced thanks to modern machinery/minting techniques. That is why I continue to buy them. I'm sure the valuations for Ike's will appreciate at some point in time. But so will the older coinage. I was not trying to bash Ike collecting; comparing apples to oranges is what caught my attention.

This is an interesting discussion. Here are a few thoughts I have on the topic of Ikes. I did not own one a single Ike before joining this site, but now have well over 100 Unc/Proof coins (almost 2 complete sets and dupes). There have been many good topics covered about Ikes and I have developed a great appreciation of the series making it one of my favorites. Recently, there has been a good number of new discussion on the series which could reflect increased popularity (even if it is a small increase). I view Ikes as a subset of the modern coin segment which could be classified as classic modern (or anything else you like). The coins are an obsolete size and the design has a different feel than what is being created today or even what was produced in the 1970s. Additionally, the coins didn't circulate very well and many people are not familiar with them making the set interesting.

Today's modern Ikes will be tomorrow's "classic" Ikes. Until that time arrives, proof and 40% silver Ikes will nevertheless appreciate. As has been pointed out, some of that has been fueled by a surge in their certification, which in itself, rightly or wrongly, confers a "collectible" aura on them. That said, I know of at least one coin shop that puts ordinary clad Ikes out (generally circulated, but occasional AU & UNC examples as well) at face value.

The same argument could be used for the SBA's, Sacajewea's, and even the modern presidential series.

I'd decided to re-read this thread and came up a rather fascinating rhetorical question regarding the Eisenhower dollars:

"It appears that the engraver was always tweaking the molds to change them slightly. Could this tweaking be a purposeful creation of VAM's. Thus the market is now be adjusted by the misdeeds of the engraving section at the mint."

If this heresy bears any fruit then the interest in "discovered" VAMS's is nothing but a mint based manipulation of the market place and not dealer driven. If this manipulation could have been done on the Eisenhower's why couldn't it have been done on other coins.

After all, isn't a VAM nothing more that a modification to the dies itself.