What Modern Coin Series Is A Darkhorse?

To me SBA are not the Dark horse the Kennedy's from 1964-1970 the silver half dollars are a forgotten coin. to find a 1965 ms-66 cameo is rare the SBA it very easy to Ultra Cam but the early Kennedy's 1964-70-D that is a hard and costly coin.and now 1992-2007 silver are going up faster than I thought. I waiting to see what 2008 with do?

But that my opinion,

Good points, MVC!

I have given thought to number two. I believe that as long as there are coins, circulating or not, there will always be coins collectors.

I would add a part "b" to number one, mentioning the lack of precious metals in modern coins.


Now that is said...

I vote for the Eisenhower dollar because I am biased towards that series, and I know I am not alone here! (EDIT: nds76 beat me to the punch, he posted as I was typing this response!) The Eisenhower had a short run; but with some silver thrown in, and a few types and varieties to make for happy hunting, it is gaining popularity.

I think it is easy to add the Ike to Dorion's choice because the dollar coins, big or small, were killed by the dollar bill. They did not really circulate in the first place, flying below the radar of many future collectors. One might even be inclined to add the Sacagawea and Presidential dollars to the list.

I started hoarding clad quarters in 1972 when I heard the FED would start rotating their stocks of coins so everything would become worn in time. I knew that no one was collecting these coins but figured who'd want to collect ugly debased junk and "investing" in it was a fool's bet if the FED was always going to have pallets of brand new or slightly used coins sitting in warehouses.

By 1976 I started collecting these. They were far more interesting than my earlier estimates had been. There were lots of really neat varieties and gems were often quite rare. Over the years I'd discover one rarity after another but no one was ever impressed. I'd always hear the same thing; what does it matter if they are rare if no one ever collects them.

Guess what? I guess it has sneaked up on everyone but there are people collecting these now. Most write off the high prices as "registry madness" but that overlooks the fact that the prices went up before the registry started. It also overlooks the fact that many of these that aren't involved in the registry have high prices. I'll bet there are no MS-64 '83-Ps in the registry but go out and try to find one of these. It won't be easy and it won't be cheap.

Yeah, there are only a couple thousand collectors of these coins but it goes up every year. More importantly, perhaps, these couple thousand collectors learn something new every day. I know I do.

It seems that so long as so few are interested that the future looks quite rosy.

Sure, I know there are many thousands (even tens of thousands) of mostly newbies collecting these coins from circulation and I hardly mean to demean their efforts. Some of the coins they are finding are already important and more will be important in the future. But they aren't putting any pressure on prices or affecting supply and demand unless they are in the market. But here too is an inkling of what the future might hold. These collectors will be doing some upgrading. How many will want to have some of their coins in unc? How many will want to acquire the varieties and gems?

The real darkhorse is probably the dimes since these are terra incognita. But I don't believe any of the dimes are especially scarce so it's just a matter of finding the gems and varieties. Obviously there are the known scarcities like the '65 silvers, '68 & '75 No-S, and the '82- NMM.

My predictions is that our Mint will begin producing coins in all denominations with just about every thing possible on them. These massive weird coins will be in denominations of .01, .02, .03, .04, .05, etc., etc., etc. The cost of porducing them is irrelevant as it is now. One some there will be movie stars, some all types of political people, sporting events and players, some with cars and/or motorcycles, some with sceenery (already have some), and just lots and lost more. Coin collecting will be about as popular in 100 years as stamp collecting, Beanie Babies, Baseball/Football cards are today. And maybe worse. The USMint is well on their way to doing this now with President Dollars, their wives, Commemoratives of everything except the kitchen sink (so far).
Myself I've started to hoard Buggy Whips. With the prices of gasolene, I think the horse and buggy will soon return.

Well, I think Jefferson nickels are undervalued. Just look at all the coins in the Jefferson nickel thread (https://goccf.com/t/24785) being looked through and still they are having trouble finding 8-9 coins. There are maybe 5 keys and a total of 6-7 keys/semi-keys.

I don't think the clad dimes, modern Lincoln Memorial Cents, or clad quarters will take off any time in the next 20 years and maybe not even in 40-50 years (except for the higest grades). There were just far too many made- unless there is a great big melt in the future due to us moving away from coins and to a completely cashless society (which is very likely).

JFK halves might show some upward momentum due to some tougher dates with lower mintages (78, 78D, 79D, 82P, 82D, 99P &D, 2002-present). But the thing that holds it back is demand. Look at Franklin halves. Until just recently, you could buy a complete set for buillion or maybe 5% above buillion, despite a lot of low mintage coins in the series. Demand for Franklins seems to have been low until recently, despite low mintages (lower than JFKs). Your talking 45 or more years later and finally starting to see some upward momentum, (most of it may be related to silver, but some of it appears to be non-silver related).

IKES, SAC and SBA- made way too many business strikes, except some of the more recent SAC- low mintage. But might be 15-20 years (or more) before the SAC takes off.

I, too am concerned that the bottom could drop out of the bull coin market in the long-term. Silver and gold probably will come down from their mighty levels, and more of the society will be cashless. Younger generation will rarely even see coins, let alone want to collect them. What this could mean is that 25 years from now, your collection could very well be worth less than it is now, because demand may tumble. I do hope I am wrong. I collect for fun, not to invest, because as an investment, coins sometimes don't even keep with inflation.

Example: You can buy a circulated Seated Liberty dime from the 1850s for under 8 bucks, $1.15 of which is for the silver buillion ($6.85 for numismatic value). That means in 150 years, the coin has risen 68.5-fold in value. Inflation from just 1913 is 1,929%. This means 38-fold increase and 10 cents in 1913 costs 380 cents today. I can't find 1850-1913 data, but surely there was another 100% inflation during that time. Usually there is at least 100% inflation for every 25-30 years.

High Grade Kennedys.

I think they are beautiful coins, and will be valued and appreciated in the future.

quote:

---

I don't think the clad dimes, modern Lincoln Memorial Cents, or clad quarters will take off any time in the next 20 years and maybe not even in 40-50 years (except for the higest grades). There were just far too many made- unless there is a great big melt in the future due to us moving away from coins and to a completely cashless society (which is very likely).

---

It's not just the highest grade coins that can be in short supply. There are numerous varieties whch don't appear in mint sets and weren't saved. Some of these were made in small numbers. For instance there were about 10,000 '82-NMM dimes produced and released mostly near Sandusky Ohio. There are only a couple of '75 No-S dimes known. The examples that can be listed here are nearly endless.

There's also some issue with just what constitutes "high grade". Most clad came off the dies looking pretty ratty because of worn dies and poor strikes. Then they were beaten before making it out of the mint. Many dates were notorious for planchet scratching or other systemic types of problems.

It's often not so much a matter of finding high grades but just finding one that looks nice. Every date has a few gems and for now that's enough to satisfy the market but supply is hardly boundless of nice coins. There are extremely few nice looking coins surviving in unc of some dates and any real demand will push up the price of attractive circulated coins.

The reason prices are up so much is because collecting is up so much. The reason that varieties aren't up a lot is that many clad collectors are relative newbies and either aren't collecting the varieties yet or aren't aware of them. You wouldn't recognize the price structure on these coins if this set attracted one tenth the interest that is in something like the old Lincolns. But I still think, in the long run, it's going to happen. Two generations of people have grown up with clads now. Eventually most people want reminders of their younger times and they usually turn to things that were common and widespread. What could be more common than a 1965 quarter? What could be tougher than a nice still unc '65 quarter?

I think it's mostly a matter of time and the recent price changes are saying that the time might be at hand.

As always I would not try to encourage people to invest in any coin. Collecting is more fun and has a higher probability of profit. It's OK to collect a coin because you think it might go up but don't try to collect something you don't like; it's still investing.

I hope the SBA's will be popular also and I have noticed collectors start paying attention to this series but its very slow starting out. As most people know thats been here for awhile my grandfather took us to the bank and bought us kids 100.00 worth of SBA's when we were kids and I bought all my cousins and my sisters and they are all in a bank deposit box except for the few rolls I have here at the house, and I even gave a roll away in a contest we had once that SuperDave won when we hit the 1000 member mark (the biggest giveaway we have ever had). I have to say if the past progress is any indication on what is to come then I think it may be a few more years than 100 before they become popular though