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Posted 02/07/2019 12:50 pm
I never like to hear of folks losing their jobs, especially when it is a consequence of a company misreading the market trend.
I don't think so. As with any hobby, interest will wax and wane due to various factors however, my sense is that there is still a core interest in the hobby. What has plagued the NCLT market recently in Canada as well as numerous other mints around the world is oversupply, high cost and repetitive themes.
The RCM typically pitches their Silver proof product at 5-6x bullion. Combine that with rehashing polar bears, eagles, maple leaves, Niagara falls etc. and mintages in the thousands and you essentially have a very high priced commodity that has historically lost value and trended towards bullion pricing. It is unlikely that you will ever see Silver appreciating 5-6 times in the next few years so you are buying a declining value asset. While most collectors are prepared to see some variance in their cost vs. value equation, routinely seeing 20-50 cents on the dollar is not viable in the long term.
Looking internationally, many countries are coming out with interesting bullion issues at near melt prices. In the past, bullion was for investors looking for a hedge against the volatility in other markets so an annual maple leaf, krugerrand, philharminonc or ASE worked... there was no collector appeal beyond stacking. These days, that equation has changed. While bullion issues don't have the fine detail or shiny fields of a proof issue when you look at the Somali Elephants, the UK Queen's beasts, the wildlife issues from Australia, the US 5oz ATB series etc... there are plenty of options open to collectors casual and serious. Just look at the http://goccf.com/f/143 forum for some of the options. When you add the fact that many of these issues evolve the design every year, there can be collecting trends where you can enjoy the hobby and not lose your shirt in the transactions.
In this context the RCM starts to look very expensive for what is a tired product line. They have tried to embellish with paint, enamel, glass baubles, pop culture themes and most recently Pysanka and UFO egg shaped coins but these are derivative and not targeted at folks who see the beauty and value in a 1858 large format cent and... I would contend... it is this latter group that forms the core of the hobby and without whom, the hobby will gradually die out.
The RCM gold NCLT is already reasonably priced at under 2x bullion. Whether you will ever see your purchase price again is in question but in general, I have seen gold product prices remaining close to issue with a few appreciating nicely. The key learning I take from this is a 1oz Gold coin at $2,900 CDN is equivalent to a 1oz Silver coin at $40-$45. I would contend that volumes would be much higher and sales more stable if Silver ounces were sold at $40 instead of the $120-150 we routinely see these days.
If the mint take this opportunity to refocus on design vs. technology, on value vs. quantity, on uniqueness vs. rehashes then I think there is a robust future for them and the hobby in Canada. If not, then this is not going to be the last news release we see like this.
Quote:
Have people lost interest in collecting coins?
Have people lost interest in collecting coins?
I don't think so. As with any hobby, interest will wax and wane due to various factors however, my sense is that there is still a core interest in the hobby. What has plagued the NCLT market recently in Canada as well as numerous other mints around the world is oversupply, high cost and repetitive themes.
The RCM typically pitches their Silver proof product at 5-6x bullion. Combine that with rehashing polar bears, eagles, maple leaves, Niagara falls etc. and mintages in the thousands and you essentially have a very high priced commodity that has historically lost value and trended towards bullion pricing. It is unlikely that you will ever see Silver appreciating 5-6 times in the next few years so you are buying a declining value asset. While most collectors are prepared to see some variance in their cost vs. value equation, routinely seeing 20-50 cents on the dollar is not viable in the long term.
Looking internationally, many countries are coming out with interesting bullion issues at near melt prices. In the past, bullion was for investors looking for a hedge against the volatility in other markets so an annual maple leaf, krugerrand, philharminonc or ASE worked... there was no collector appeal beyond stacking. These days, that equation has changed. While bullion issues don't have the fine detail or shiny fields of a proof issue when you look at the Somali Elephants, the UK Queen's beasts, the wildlife issues from Australia, the US 5oz ATB series etc... there are plenty of options open to collectors casual and serious. Just look at the http://goccf.com/f/143 forum for some of the options. When you add the fact that many of these issues evolve the design every year, there can be collecting trends where you can enjoy the hobby and not lose your shirt in the transactions.
In this context the RCM starts to look very expensive for what is a tired product line. They have tried to embellish with paint, enamel, glass baubles, pop culture themes and most recently Pysanka and UFO egg shaped coins but these are derivative and not targeted at folks who see the beauty and value in a 1858 large format cent and... I would contend... it is this latter group that forms the core of the hobby and without whom, the hobby will gradually die out.
The RCM gold NCLT is already reasonably priced at under 2x bullion. Whether you will ever see your purchase price again is in question but in general, I have seen gold product prices remaining close to issue with a few appreciating nicely. The key learning I take from this is a 1oz Gold coin at $2,900 CDN is equivalent to a 1oz Silver coin at $40-$45. I would contend that volumes would be much higher and sales more stable if Silver ounces were sold at $40 instead of the $120-150 we routinely see these days.
If the mint take this opportunity to refocus on design vs. technology, on value vs. quantity, on uniqueness vs. rehashes then I think there is a robust future for them and the hobby in Canada. If not, then this is not going to be the last news release we see like this.
