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Modern Commemorative Market

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 Posted 09/24/2021  2:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list
Any particular reason for the Atlanta Olympics Commemoratives to have appreciated in price so much relative to other Commemoratives? I mean, all those that wanted these coins could have bought them from the Mint when issued. Why the wait and sudden interest (from 2004 on)?
Edited by NumisEd
09/24/2021 2:53 pm
CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
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 Posted 09/24/2021  5:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list
@NumisEd...

I'll try to answer your questions, but first a query for you:

I'm curious why you indicated that the price increase happened in 2004 and beyond. The 1996 Atlanta Olympics silver dollars began separating themselves from most other SDs in the series, in terms of market price, in Q1 2000.


My answer to your questions:

By 1995-96, collectors were suffering from modern US commemorative coin fatigue - too many issues without enough inspiring designs. Many stopped buying. This fatigue lasted for several years.

In September, 1996, Congress enacted restrictions on the modern program including limiting releases to two per year Public Law 104-208; the law took effect on January 1, 1999. It took a little time, but this limit positively impacted collector interest. Compared to many earlier issues, the mintage figures for the 1996 Atlanta Olympics silver dollar were low - a common trigger for collectors to develop sudden interest and the urge to buy! More collectors looking to buy = price increases!


Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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 Posted 09/24/2021  5:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list

Quote:
I'm curious why you indicated that the price increase happened in 2004 and beyond. The 1996 Atlanta Olympics silver dollars began separating themselves from most other SDs in the series, in terms of market price, in Q1 2000.


Perhaps my sample was too narrow, but if you look at the 1996 Swimming in MS68 condition the biggest rise started in 2005: https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=9712-68
For the 1996 Soccer MS68 as well: https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=9714-68
Same story with Rowing: https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=9728-68 And High Jump: https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=9730-68
Edited by NumisEd
09/24/2021 5:38 pm
CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
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 Posted 09/24/2021  7:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list
@NumisEd: Thanks for the info on your sources.

The price for the Atlanta Olympics SDs rose for several years, but the rise started in Q1 2000. It was during that period that their market prices crossed the $100 threshold while nearly all other SDs traded in the $15 to $35 range.




Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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 Posted 09/24/2021  9:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list
You think that the PCGS price info is not correct? Or perhaps incomplete?
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 Posted 09/24/2021  9:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list
Commons, I've never shopped for the olympics comms as I'm not interested but of all the ones listed I will agree with the Native American museum reissue of the Bison nickel as a silver dollar. That was the only one I paid over what it was issued for. Even the Smithsonian I paid a little more than bullion at $30. The others I got I paid from $14 without the OGP to $22-$24 in the OGP. Even the dual proof sets like the Mt Rushmore I paid less than the US Mint price.

That's not to say one shouldn't buy them. I'm happy for the ones that I got. But I for one will buy them in the secondary market. I still don't have the Apollo 11 Comm as it's still a little expensive and that is another I want.
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 Posted 09/30/2021  7:34 pm  Show Profile   Check Lancek's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Lancek to your friends list
I've gotten in to these precisely because they are easy to pick up cheap. And I like history. Although I hate how much room the OMP takes up, and the cloudy film many proofs develop. So off to ANACS during one of their $10 per dollar and $39 conservation for up to 20 coins specials. They come back looking great.

I've got one of those aluminum 50 slab holders with the clear top. With Anacs' angled top I can quickly find the year I want. And the whole thing makes a nice display piece when I show it to friends.

I'll never understand how ASEs command a big premium over silver. While many of these I basically get for melt. For more than 20 years every ASE was essentially the same design. A very beautiful design. But I love the individual design of each commem. And they mark a place in time (olympics) or remember something from our past. Maybe there just aren't enough history buffs out there.

First time I ever saw one wasn't even the coin. It was outside the Prisoner of War Museum in Andersonville, GA. They had a large plaque saying how some of the proceeds from the sale of that coin helped build the museum. I eventually got one. I just picked up an second one to give to my daugher. Coins aren't her thing, but she did think having that particular one would be a nice memento of our trip.


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 Posted 09/30/2021  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list
There is one very notable modern commemorative that goes against my experience, as mentioned in my earlier post:

2009 ultra high relief Double Eagle:
151,000 minted.
Issue price $1189, spot gold at the time $860 (38% premium above spot).
Current price $2625 in MS-69, spot gold $1760 (49% premium above spot).

My opinion is that this Mint product will always be a 'gilt edged' investment. The US Mint expended a huge technical effort, and lost financially in the production of it.

One of the few modern coins that I would really like to have in my collection. The premium above gold spot price will continue to grow slowly but steadily, over the long term.

Another way of looking at this investment is that it has had an average growth rate above inflation of 4.9% year on year.
Edited by sel_69l
09/30/2021 8:33 pm
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 Posted 09/30/2021  8:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list
I think I would prefer an original Saint Gaudens over a High Relief Double Eagle. Because in the end, the former is a real piece of history whereas the latter is a modern gimmick.
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 Posted 09/30/2021  10:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ChicagoCoinGuy to your friends list
Lancek's post is my thoughts exactly. Great post.

I too like them for the historical aspect, and how each design is so different from the next. I'm real excited for next year's Purple Heart and Negro League sets. I get the 3-coin set for each of my toddler kiddos every year (I give myself only the silver proof )
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 Posted 10/01/2021  11:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add carlp007 to your friends list
I started collecting the modern commemorative silver/clad proof coins a few years back. I enjoy the diverse designs on the coins, and of course they are silver. Meaning the one dollar commemoratives have a numismatic value and/or a silver value. I buy the half dollar clad proofs just to complete a year's set. I don't have every year's set but will eventually when I find the right deals. I also buy more than one years issues, proof or UNC, for their silver content if the price is right. I have picked up several of the 1986 Statue of Liberty, Constitution Bicentennial, etc... Dollar coins at spot price or below. The American Buffalo two coin set it the highest price set I have purchased.

After reading commems great informative posts , I plan to buy more UNC versions because of a unique difference from the proof coin.

I am still working on the 1995-1996 Olympic coins. I haven't found the right deal for them yet.

Bottom line. I enjoy the series. That is what it should be about when collecting.
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 Posted 10/01/2021  10:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list
Was browsing silver coins on ebay and came across this medal: https://www.ebay.com/itm/303905920402
I have to say, the design with the satellite in orbit around mercury looks pretty nice to me.
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 Posted 10/03/2021  3:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add livingwater to your friends list
Modern commemorative/bullion coins can be a profit situation for collectors depending on popularity, timing, precious metals prices. Dealers are obviously making money selling them.

Someone may have compiled price history of commemorative coins the last 30+ years to compare gains/losses and has charts.

PCGS started in 1986. I assume they researched prices back in time to 1970 to begin their PCGS 3000 index. It shows classic/rare coins prices. This index has had good gains. Some may be suspicious of this index, but it provides insight into the coin market over time. I did some calculating, generally, roughly, according to sources I looked at Google searches.

Since 1970 PCGS 3000 has gone up about 5,939%
Since 1970 Dow Jones Ind. has gone up about 4,100%
Since 1970 S&P 500 has gone up about 4,800%
Since 1970 silver $1.63 oz,has gone up about 1,380%
Since 1970 gold $37.38 oz has gone up about 4,700%

The coin market can go up/down like stocks. The highest PCGS 3000 ever got was 1989 at $181,088. It's currently $60,398. If you would have bought every PCGS 3000 coin in 1989 they would now be worth 66.65% less, bad timing.

I can't afford high dollar classic/rare coins. I'm not in the PCGS 3000 arena. I still enjoy my modern coins and my ancient coins. I don't worry much if they appreciate in value. I just try to buy at current fair prices.
Edited by livingwater
10/03/2021 4:53 pm
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 Posted 10/03/2021  7:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list
@livingwater,

your number for the DOW and S&P500 do not give a complete picture as you seemingly forgot to include dividend reinvestment.
Including that, the total return of the Dow is 24,069%. For the S&P500 this number is 22,616%.

https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
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 Posted 10/03/2021  7:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add livingwater to your friends list
Yes, assuming someone reinvests their dividends and doesn't spend them, makes the stock market much better.
Edited by livingwater
10/03/2021 8:06 pm
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