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Any Help Interpreting This Long Term Gold Chart?

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Pillar of the Community
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1747 Posts
 Posted 10/24/2024  1:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add psuman08 to your friends list

Quote:
How do you interpret this chart?
I find it impossible to interpret a gold chart when for most of the years the value was dictated by the government, and it was illegal to own.
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 Posted 10/24/2024  1:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coin rejector to your friends list
Cup & Handle IMHO, and keep hearing $3000 p/o by years end.
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 Posted 10/24/2024  2:53 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list

Quote:
A massive adoption of nuclear energy to drop the cost of energy to near zero.

The cost to build, operate, and decommission those plants is substantial. The fuels must also be mined, stored, transported, and safely disposed of once depleted. Nuclear is pretty good from a carbon emissions standpoint—acknowledging that you've converted a CO2 problem into a waste heat and spent fuel problem—but it's not a panacea from a cost standpoint. The same is true of people claiming that sunshine and wind are free. While that is true, the infrastructure and personnel to responsibly utilize the free input energy are decidedly not free, and to ignore those costs is a tad frivolous. Arguments of that form could also be made for rivers flowing and geology producing fossil fuels as free, and those arguments would be similarly impractical from a utilization standpoint.

To the original question, gold does vary over time. If you stripped out fiat inflation (and particularly inflation in excess of GDP growth), I think what would remain is a reasonable fingerprint of economic confidence over time. In turmoil, gold's value rises as a universally accepted store of wealth. In abundance, gold subsides as other commodities like oil, timber, industrial raw materials rise in value. When gold rises in tandem with those commodities, it seems reasonable that it would be die to monetary inflation, and when they fall in tandem, that would probably be in times of deleveraging, when the commodity value of cash rises sharply.
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 Posted 10/24/2024  4:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add psuman08 to your friends list
The rumor with the BRICS is a currency with 40% gold backing and 60% local currencies.
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 Posted 10/24/2024  4:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list

Quote:
a currency with 40% gold backing and 60% local currencies.
That is a lot of gold or not a lot of currency.
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 Posted 10/24/2024  5:34 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list
How would that even work? What would it really mean to be partially gold backed, any more than the current situation of fiat-issuing sovereign nations holding gold reserves?
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 Posted 10/24/2024  8:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list
I think it could work as a domestic currency Brandmeister. But it BRICS really wants to compete internationally with the dollar and euro the gold backing would be drained out of their system quickly. France was doing that to the US in the late 1960's, demanding physical gold in payments. There wasn't enough gold to do that for very long. The Gold Standard only works when there isn't predatory behavior that tears the system apart.

India's domestic gold bonds back the Rupee to some extent, but the scale is tiny compared to Treasuries. Billions vs trillions. India is finding that building their gold reserve is expensive and time consuming. Their gold reserves are small compared to the US, China and Russia, and they aren't building them at $32 an ounce or by mining. Personally I like what they're doing to my holdings, but it's unlikely that they will succeed in their quest for gold-backed currency.

What hurts gold the most is that it can't be leveraged like fiat currencies. You can't create more of it out of nothing. A Gold bond or note has to be backed by gold, not by "full faith and credit".
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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 Posted 10/25/2024  4:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add glenmorenee to your friends list
The cup and handle looks massive and the breakout started just this year.

You'd think India would have hedged all their risk with their gold bond issues but this is government we are talking about.

Gold backed currencies can't get out of the gate because they can't even get past the first and simplest step. No country would ever voluntarily prove their gold reserves for everyone to see. Who goes first?
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 Posted 10/25/2024  4:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coin rejector to your friends list

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The cup and handle looks massive and the breakout started just this year.


Yep, exactly what it looks like to me.
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 Posted 10/25/2024  5:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coin rejector to your friends list
Also to note.... the $SLV broke out above $30 to new 52 week highs ($31.80), stair stepping up since Aug. Earlier in the year, I was wondering if silver would hit $35 before years end & it did or at least came within cents. With golds bull run, I'm now thinking silver to $40 is a possibility prior to year end & ATH's in '25.
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 Posted 10/25/2024  5:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add glenmorenee to your friends list

Quote:
Yep, exactly what it looks like to me.


Only problem is, I'm pretty happy with my holdings and that has never been a good sign.
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Canada
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 Posted 10/27/2024  8:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sbr to your friends list
Looks like a flag to me with a breakout , maybe 3,000 by Christmas lol who knows
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 Posted 10/28/2024  12:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add psuman08 to your friends list

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Gold backed currencies can't get out of the gate because they can't even get past the first and simplest step. No country would ever voluntarily prove their gold reserves for everyone to see. Who goes first?


Lol, you probably hit the nail on the head.
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 Posted 10/28/2024  1:42 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list
Large countries can intentionally manipulate their currency relative to commodities. If you peg your currency to a commodity, then that directly implies that other countries—or huge trading blocs like the EU—can manipulate your sovereign currency.

Rather than have a metal backed currency, I wish that we could just remove all the frictional losses on transitioning metals to cash and back. For example, capital gains taxes should be reduced for inflation or removed from certain categories altogether (or eliminated below a certain large amount each year). The challenge with PMs isn't necessarily that you can't hold them, but rather that there are so many institutional obstacles to liquidating them for use in commercial exchanges.
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Canada
128 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2025  08:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sbr to your friends list
Scottsdale mint has a few good you tubes about all the commercial flights from London to the US carrying gold. APMEX also has some you tubes about the gold and silver as well. Something is going on with these metals as we might have an audit of Fort Knox and the London Metal exchange has moved deliveries for physical from 3 days to up to two months. I also see Walmart is now selling gold . Interesting times.
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