Silver Price Means... ?

OK, got some good thoughts here.

Hawk seems to be thinking that it will bottom out somewhere in the low $30s and has been buying.

SDcoinguy is collecting Franklins and is buying from time to time. Price does not seem to be a big issue there.

Mitch and I seem to be on the same page with the 90% coins. I also like the portability and the smaller denominations that would be useful for buying food and fuel during a financial emergency. Not sure if it would be easy to make change in hard times, so having just the right amount for my purchases would be a definite plus.

I haven't purchased from Provident before, so this would be a 1st for me. I like their shipping rates, though. Their selection could be better in terms of coin type and quality. If they have what I want, then buying from them seems a good move.

ASEs are pretty much my BIG money (lol) but 90% silver coins are great for small change. I have a tube of Roosevelt dimes now. Another 3-4 tubes would be good. 14 silver dimes is close to 1 oz. of silver. Half dollars are also good, since 3 of them contain almost 1.1 oz. of silver. I have 3 tubes of half dollars now. I do not have any 90% quarters, so should probably be getting a few tubes of them one of these days to complete my change coin group.

I also do not have any bars, other than a single 1-oz. bar that my wife gave me as a gift a few years back. Would it be good to have some 10-oz. bars as my "big money" in silver? It would be difficult to spend these directly but it should be possible to sell or trade these for ASEs and other silver coins when needed.

The silver price seems poised for a possible rebound into the mid $40s, if not a little higher. Question here is when that will happen.

The dollar has shown some strength recently and that has helped push all commodity prices lower. This is likely to be temporary, however, and it is likely that we are now in one of those buying dips.

As usual, various governments are involved and that makes things more than a little confused. European problems and US problems are linked to some extent. Banks on both sides of the Atlantic have relationships with each other. Greece is an issue because the Europeans seem committed to supporting them with additional hundreds of billions of loaned Euros. Most likely scenario is that the Greeks will not be able to implement their austerity measures successfully, although their government will give it a good try. EU banks would then cut their losses by refusing to loan them any more money and writing off their previous loans. Greece will default and probably leave the EU. A much bigger problem is with the other PIIGS countries who would also like some bail-out money but who know that they cannot get any better deal than Greece gets. The EU is very wary of being too gentle with Greece because of the "me too!" effect from the rest of the PIIGS. Although they seem to be handling this problem, I would not count on them to do all of the right things at the right times to successfully resolve this issue.

US debt and a lack of leadership and vision is causing severe financial problems in the US and with our trading partners. The US financial situation seems precarious at best, with nothing in the way of an agreeable solution now in sight. We do not have to fix this problem immediately but we DO have to show a shared willingness to make the sacrifices needed to fix it as well as the beginnings of a long-term financial repair process. I believe that this is possible but perhaps not likely. :-/

Summer is supposed to be the slow time for PMs, so prices tend to be somewhat lower now than at other times of the year. Of course, big economic or political news could change that pretty fast so we have to be wary of that. The good news for us PM collectors is that there are many reasons why PMs will be more valuable in the future than they are now and they do make for some pretty good insurance against hard times. With all the bad financial news out there, thinking that bad times may be just around the corner is not nearly so far fetched as it was a few years ago when the economy was booming and jobs were plentiful. I was never a boy scout but I was a cub scout way back when and the "Be Prepared" motto is still well worth remembering.

Nice Freedom, that is some silver collection you have going there, keep it up, in fifteen years you will have a real hoard....

Ed-B,I think the lack of direction in silver prices is a combination of factors,many of which you listed and expounded upon. I think that many are waiting to see if the end of QE2 brings a stronger dollar or results in a major stock market tumble causing QE3 to kick in. My projection is a stronger dollar which will hurt exports and commodities,driving gold and silver temporarily lower(this may be what we are seeing now). The Fed will not,however,let the stock market plunge because that is the indicator most people look at(although erroneously in my mind)to determine the strength of economic growth.Since Americans are not consuming as in the past,lack of exports will equal lower corporate profits and a drop in the stock market. This will cause QE3 to kick in for the last quarter of 2011 and you will see a major surge in PM prices because it will become painfully evident to many more people worldwide that debt default and/or currency devaluation are the only ways out of this miasma! The political wrangling will intensify in 2012 to the point that nothing meaningful will happen for fear of stirring up the masses and getting unelected!Christmas,2011 will be touted as the beginning of the recovery,most folks will be so numb from hearing the propaganda they will tune out and shut down and the winter of 2012 will be bleak,cold and hopeless for those not invested in PMs! That may be the great tipping point in this miserable saga. Hope everyone has a nice day!(as he descends from his soap box)

I agree, Hock. QE is quite a wild card in the market and has quite a few possible outcomes... both good and bad. It's really hard to say which parts will have the strongest effect. We are definitely in a "wait and see" time, though.



I see things like this as a wave that comes on, builds, crests, and then recedes. We very well could be looking at the front edge of this wave. A lot of dollar weakness has been baked into the market pie at this stage. It would not take a lot in the good news department to improve the dollar / reduce commodities quite a bit. The trick is, will we get such strengthening?



I agree that the Fed is concentrating on the stock market and that this is an error on their part as well as that of many other people. If the Fed would look at the Dow 30 priced in gold, they would see what the market is REALLY doing and not what it appears to be doing when fed billions of shrinking fiat dollars via the QEs. That picture, while accurate, is not nearly so rosy.



It is unfortunate that neither Dems nor Reps really want solutions to our economic and financial problems. They would rather bicker over them than solve them. While this does zip for the country, it does much for their strutting and preening before the TV cameras. Guess which they will choose when push comes to shove!



I agree that we could well be near the time when it finally becomes obvious to Joe Sixpack that cash is a poor way to save money and that silver represents a very good way to do that. We could very well see a real rush into the silver market at that point with prices shooting up accordingly. From the way that silver has been bid up on ebay, it is clear that there is both demand and ignorance at work. Both of those are MUCH better for sellers than buyers.

I am getting eager to make some more cash, as silver is now under 34 bucks an oz., and it may hit that 30 dollar Mendoza line if some support is not found here soon. Gold has dropped to 1497 as well, and oil is down to 91 bucks a barrel, what gives?

Gas dropped here from $3.39 a gallon to $3.33 overnight this past weekend, and I am not gonna sound like a good brain washed sheep and say that is a good price, but if you compare it to what they pay in other places, yeah it is pretty good. I would have expected closer to 4 bucks a gallon by now for peak travel season, but I think the gov knows what a fragile thing the economy is in, and a trucker strike or something along those lines could be devastating. I don't pay much attention to other commodities other than the main four Pm's and oil, but it must be that "stuck in neutral thing" until that QE-3 announcement is made, or perhaps they tap into those medicare and social security funds next month, and who knows what either of the fore mentioned may do to the market....

Yes Hock, that all makes much sense. No doubt the US has been clubed a time or two up side the head lately with the ol ugly stick, but for now anyway the US is out of the spotlight, and Greece is center stage....

Well done, 20 ASE birds killed with one 767 dollar stone! The total, the number I divide always by is 767 by 20, which is a nice $38.55 each. You will probably be happy with that packing and shipping time, as well as that fair 12 dollar shipping and H charge on a roll of 20....

My shop has some of those five oz. Engelhard wrapped up all nice for 200, last time I was in, and silver is down a bit since. I would like one myself, a 5 oz. one anyway ....