Silver Expected To Drop ?

As I mentioned in another thread, I am itching to buy a bag of AU-BU Morgan and/or Peace dollars, but the premium on them soared a soon as the price of silver dropped (to the point where the price ended up being the same). All I can hope for now is that the price of silver stays low long enough for the price of what I want to eventually come back down.

I saw some technical (chart) analysis on, I think, seeking alpha that pointed toward $25.

I always have to chuckle at the technical analysis approach to investing. It always looks to me like driving by looking in the rear-view mirror. The chart guys seem to be saying, "We haven't a clue about where we're going but we sure do know where we've been!".

As a stock investor for 35+ years, it is the fundamentals of the investment that I use to determine a fair price for something. Along with that is the realization that a person's time horizon is a very important aspect of investing. Stock investing is something that needs a 3-5 year minimum time frame for most investments to work out. During that time the prices of these investments will be up, down, and sideways. While the general trend is likely to be up, it certainly is no straight line graph.

Investing in PMs is similar in that there are many price moves over time and that you can make money in PMs if you are patient. Therefore, I tend to buy PMs when the prices are temporarily less than they have been recently and then hold them for a considerable period. While this does not guarantee success, it does up the odds a bit in my favor. In the meantime, I just enjoy collecting nice coins, bars, and rounds made of PMs. If they ever go up big, I might sell some. If not then I will keep them and pass them on to the kids and grand kids. Either way, they are a small but tasty slice of my investing pie.

How about "none of the above"? A slow rise to just over $30 during the next 3-4 weeks, followed by a fairly rapid rise to around $50 by Easter seems likely to me. After that, anything can (and probably will) happen. No data, just supposition!

I am sure that you understand this as well as I, Merlin, but I mention it here for others to consider. If we work with something for a long enough time, we often get to the point where there is a "feel" to it that we cannot explain in words but that we can tap into subconsciously. This is how the stock market is for me now. The feel of the market is very important and probably consists of many small details that we know about but which do not quite become conscious thoughts... more of a perception, really. This is not the only thing I use when investing but it is probably the most important one... to me, anyway. I have found this to be an accurate predictor of market behavior about 70% or more of the time, which is a very handy tool to have. I am relatively new to PMs, so do not have the "feel" for it that you and others on here probably have developed over the years. Still, it is coming to me... slowly.

First off Fake Chow (see Hall Pass), excuse me I mean Dog chow how would you know, you got a crystal ball as easter aint here yet....

Joltin Joe, say it aint so, you changed your name again eh....

The weather gets nice and the troll comes out from under the bridge

I was thinking the same thing! Must have all the predictions written down in a little notebook with our screen names next to them.