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Will The Sleeper Awaken?

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Valued Member
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 Posted 11/18/2017  5:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The last sentence by cladking pretty much sums it up, but I feel there is still more involved with the "why" collectors don't have more interest. Taking silver out of the circulating coins starting in 1965 certainly played some part in the mentality of the collectors of that time and undoubtedly today. I know for me, that is the number one reason I'm not attracted to any of the clad issues, and prefer collecting the 90% silver coins. And even though I know that there are a few tough clad issues, I still can't get myself interested in them. I guess there has to be leaders and followers to get attention drawn to potential sleepers out there, and right now it doesn't look like anyone wants to follow.
Edited by jmgi
11/18/2017 5:28 pm
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oriole's Avatar
Canada
5246 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2017  5:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oriole to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The process by which large numbers of collectors go from being not interested to interested, is, I am sure, as inexplicable as the latest fashions. Maybe it is helped by promotion. Once new varieties are announced and talked about, interest grows.
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 Posted 11/18/2017  6:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Another thing to consider is that there is so much to collect nowadays. Even as late as the early 1980's, there was only business strikes along with simple mint and proof sets to collect if you wanted the latest issues. Back then there was no Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles, no State Quarter program, no special edition this or that coming out every week. And that's just some of the American minted coins to collect today, not to mention all the world stuff out there, silver and gold bullion bars, coins etc. Its really pretty overwhelming for someone new to the hobby to decide what to collect! So, that being said, boring 1969, and early 1980's clad quarters are not that appealing to many.
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cladking's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2017  7:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cladking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I guess there has to be leaders and followers to get attention drawn to potential sleepers out there, and right now it doesn't look like anyone wants to follow.


Well, I'm certainly no salesman and no leader either. I couldn't sell a bucket of water to a man on fire for free even if I threw in a wet blanket. I can leave a trail of bologna and dogs won't follow me.

I've always said "leaders" are really just people adept at jumping in front of crowds and selling them on the idea he was headed that way anyway.

Quote:

The last sentence by cladking pretty much sums it up, but I feel there is still more involved with the "why" collectors don't have more interest. Taking silver out of the circulating coins starting in 1965 certainly played some part in the mentality of the collectors of that time and undoubtedly today. I know for me, that is the number one reason I'm not attracted to any of the clad issues, and prefer collecting the 90% silver coins.


I think the next generation of collectors won't have this prejudice. Many of them have gotten their start in clad states quarters and have no bad memories of frozen dates and silver being removed.

The incidence of the old quarters in circultion is plummeting and eventually people will notice they are going the way of the Model T.

Quote:

And even though I know that there are a few tough clad issues, I still can't get myself interested in them.


Most clads are ugly that this discourages collecting them. But there are pretty specimens in every grade and this should prove to be the biggest attractant.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2017  8:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Most clads are ugly that this discourages collecting them.


The same could be said of Barber coinage, but the Halves still command decent prices.
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cladking's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2017  8:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cladking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The process by which large numbers of collectors go from being not interested to interested, is, I am sure, as inexplicable as the latest fashions. Maybe it is helped by promotion. Once new varieties are announced and talked about, interest grows.


You might be right that it will never happen but I doubt it. Some time, maybe in the distant future, people will wake up and realize these coins are pretty much gone and then they'll want them. Perhaps it will wait until after the government melts them.

Collectors tend to want to collect what everyone doers because ultimately one of the biggest reasons people collect is to get out nd socialize. All people tend to do what everyone else is doing. They buy when prices are high so they have something to sell when they are low and then commiserate with their friends.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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 Posted 11/18/2017  8:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Barbers are not very artistic for sure, but they are well over 100 years old and 90% silver, which is enough to generate some interest. I used to collect the half dollars myself, just lower circulated grades. Barber halves in Mint state have pretty nice looking details, way better than the same coin in Good.
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oriole's Avatar
Canada
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 Posted 11/19/2017  06:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oriole to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
You might be right that it will never happen but I doubt it. Some time, maybe in the distant future, people will wake up and realize these coins are pretty much gone and then they'll want them. Perhaps it will wait until after the government melts them.


Yes, I think that eventually people will notice that something is rare and want to collect it. The question is when.


Quote:
Collectors tend to want to collect what everyone doers because ultimately one of the biggest reasons people collect is to get out nd socialize. All people tend to do what everyone else is doing. They buy when prices are high so they have something to sell when they are low and then commiserate with their friends.


You are right that there is a social aspect to collecting. Human nature is that people want to achieve status/ recognition in their group, whatever the group might be. Although there are some lone collectors, most would prefer to show off or talk about their collection. If nobody else is collecting it, there is not much to talk about.
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cladking's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 11/19/2017  10:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cladking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply




Quote:
You are right that there is a social aspect to collecting. Human nature is that people want to achieve status/ recognition in their group, whatever the group might be. Although there are some lone collectors, most would prefer to show off or talk about their collection. If nobody else is collecting it, there is not much to talk about.


Collecting was a lot lonelier for me before the advent of the net. Fortunately I collected a lot of other things besides just modern coins so it wasn't too unusual to share a passion with other collectors and I had experience collecting old US coins when I was younger.

The internet has been a Godsend since I can talk to collectors of almost everything. Well... ...some of my collections are still pretty esoteric.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 11/19/2017  11:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Well... ...some of my collections are still pretty esoteric.


It wouldn't offend to see you expand on this subject, probably in General Discussion.

I have no use for Moderns in my own collecting space, but am as bullish on their Condition Rarities as any coin of any era. If there is a "sleeper" in numismatics, these are it. There are already collectors posting here who visualize coins minted during my lifetime as "old," and I suspect the majority of us will live to see the day when (at worst) 1960's and 1970's Condition Rarities will be recognized as the unicorns they are. If "sleeper" can be defined as issues which will amply reward those with the patience to hold longer-term, look no further.
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 Posted 11/19/2017  12:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
SsuperDdave, So I take it you are not putting away condition rarities of anything modern, even though you do see them as sleepers. I guess you don't think that their day will come in your lifetime? I'm a little more bullish than you on some modern stuff, not just the condition rarities, but also on various low mintage issues.
Edited by jmgi
11/19/2017 12:24 pm
Valued Member
United States
160 Posts
 Posted 11/19/2017  12:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Let me throw this example out there to see what you think of it. Take the 1996 mint state bullion Silver Eagle, the lowest mintage at 3.6 million. It regularly sells for around $50 in the raw. I may be wrong on this, but wouldn't most of that mintage still be around today in some condition? I mean, they don't really get melted do they? So, looking at some of the more recent silver Kennedy proof half dollars, with mintage's under 700,000, and they can regularly be picked up for under $15. Am I missing something, or are these under priced compared to the 1996 bulllion Silver Eagle? I know its not a enormous price difference, but its still close to three times. I would be very happy making triple my money on a coin.
Edited by jmgi
11/19/2017 4:12 pm
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 11/19/2017  1:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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SsuperDdave, So I take it you are not putting away condition rarities of anything modern, even though you do see them as sleepers.


I have a limited budget, and the things which do move me emotionally are dominating it. Were the money freer, I would absolutely be backing up my words with actions.

A few factors interfere with a broader bullishness on my part, though. First, the NIFC issues - they're not suffering any attrition, tend to have been produced in high quality, and therefore even mintages under a million will ensure easy availability for collectors wishing to acquire a nice example into the foreseeable future. It's unreasonable to expect individual collector interest exceeding a million examples; heck, I doubt anything possibly excepting Lincolns will ever command such demand.

Circulation issues have been produced in ridiculous abundance over the last fifty years, and even factoring major attrition unless there is some sort of mass-recall/melting event in the future, they will never be "uncommon" except in the rarest of cases. However, they were produced with such casual craftsmanship - forced by the production volume - that higher-graded examples are rarities from Day One and even though more will surface into the future (some current rarities will lose their scarcity) it's still as sure a bet as can be imagined, in the broader view.

I believe we're just looking at different percentages of the "bigger picture" here.
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 Posted 11/19/2017  2:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
SsuperDdave, I agree, that's why I said earlier that with so many different ways to collect nowadays, which were not around 30 years ago, ones money can only go so far. You have to decide where you can get the most for your collecting dollar that you will be happy with.
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cladking's Avatar
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2271 Posts
 Posted 11/19/2017  5:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cladking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Circulation issues have been produced in ridiculous abundance over the last fifty years, and even factoring major attrition unless there is some sort of mass-recall/melting event in the future, they will never be "uncommon" except in the rarest of cases. However, they were produced with such casual craftsmanship - forced by the production volume - that higher-graded examples are rarities from Day One and even though more will surface into the future (some current rarities will lose their scarcity) it's still as sure a bet as can be imagined, in the broader view.


I have some of these rarities and some I have in quantity. I have many safety deposit boxes full of what I believe are scarce and rare US and world moderns. But the scarcity of some of these coins is really far greater than most people realize. My favorite example is the '82-P quarter. If you look at the pop reports you'll come to believe this coin is common in high grade but that's not true. it's not true because the services give coins pass when they are badly struck by worn dies. If you want a true Gem then I'm not too certain even a single coin exists. I have some beauties but even my finest example was only about the 500th coin from die pair that wasn't quite perfectly adjusted. It's a full pressure strike though. I'd grade it MS-64++. To give an idea of how bad these are all the souvenir set coins are atrocious. They are poorly struck by mediocre dies. A few of these are pretty clean but there's nothing I'd grade over MS-64 but the services give some of these MS-67.

There are lots of neat varieties as well and most of these will only be available in VG or F because nobody has collected these. Some are tough enough that my best is only AU or XF. Of course there are rarities and scarcities I don't have at all.

I'd be happy to discuss any of my collections in the general forum. Essentially I collect most 20th century tokens and medals though I have mostly only the most common issues. I don't collect coal tokens but most everything else. The only collection that even approaches being "world class" is my telephone token collection. I have a few issues not even listed by Targonsky or Earl. I have fairly decent collections of Ind and DC transportation tokens but no rarities.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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