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Replies: 72 / Views: 5,638 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Of Course if you don't invest in gold, silver is the next best thing IMO as well.... Really, Hawk? Well, let's think about that. If we look at the historical price charts on Kitco, we have: Gold on 1/4/2010 = $1121.50 => up $284 = up 25.3% Gold on 12/30/2010 = $1405.50 Gold on 1/4/11 = $1388.50 => up $435.50 = up 31.4% Gold on 8/18/11 = 1824 Silver on 1/4/10 = $17.17 => up $13.46 = up 78.4% Silver on 12/31/10 = $30.63 Silver on 1/4/11 = $30.67 => up $9.65 = up 31.5% Silver on 8/18/11 = $40.32 Average gold increase since 2009 = 28.4% Average silver increase since 2009 = 55.0% Silver is out pacing gold by nearly 2:1. Now... what were you saying about "silver being the next best thing"? 
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New Member
United States
46 Posts |
Quote: Sorry cfibaker.I had some epidurals yesterday so I was in a lousy mood. I guess we all have these.  My goal wasn't to sound like a smart ass, with the graphs or my interpretation of them. I am pretty sure the rocket is going to keep climbing as we prepare for what seems to become the melt down of our society as we know it. Looks like people are buying what they can get their fingers on in Silver & Gold. Average price on ebay tonight is 45-53 dollars per ounce... I wonder how many will put it all in one nest, maxing out their credit cards, depleting everything right down to the wire, to get in on the hype. You know... for when the stone-age hits again... Hopefully reality will return at some point.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
 CFI
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Ed, the only number I care about is $1835 compared to $40.74, lol. And in your personal situation I think silver is best for you, and I am not saying one should buy into gold at these high prices. If the Staneburry add Bruce got is right, and gold does fall to 1000, I am not worried, as I am in it for the long haul....
You guys with the charts are right, and way smarter than I. And if I convert all my silver to gold, I will probably regret it later. But I figure, I can always start adding more silver, as it is cheap enough to do so IMO. If I can get 45 grams of gold together in these high price days already, adding more silver is gonna be possible even if it hits 75 or 100 an oz....
I don't like to gamble, as I always lay up. Even though I don't play golf after my friend spliced a shot right in to my upper lip 13 years back, which split a hole in my face I could blow air through and it took nine stitches to sew it up, lol....
My point, silvers volatility bothers me. Gold can pull back a few hundred an be fine, but if silver drops five bucks over the next five bus days, and takes 30 years to get back to 40 again, well it would be a bad thing for many of us. I don't think that will happen and many of my rants on here would lead one to believe I would never think silver to do that, but if the powers to be decides to dump enough, it could happen. I just have a gut feeling gold is gonna be a safe haven for many years to come and not as easily tampered with. Silver just has not shown me enough yet to believe it will follow right along, even though I do think a 20 to 1 ratio is destine to occur again someday. The question is, is it in a year or two or fifty. I am more inclined to think in a year or two....
Edited by Silverhawk74 08/18/2011 11:45 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
New guy on the block here so please correct me if I'm way out in the left field.
I don't feel silver's price difference to gold is much of a factor. "Poor man's gold" can be had for 40/oz right now but that's not all that far from a 1/10 oz or 1/20 gold. If I had a couple of hundred or few thousand dollars in spare change to invest, it makes no difference on a value level if it's for one gold coin or multiple silver ones. If I had only $40 in spare change, then a job's going to be the first thing I should think about, not silver v.s. gold. Even more so if I had tens of thousands or if I am buying stocks and the like in the precious metals sector.
Silver is gaining much more than gold on a percentage level, but to invest in silver one's got to have the heart for the similarly steep downswings. For the long haul silver definitely seem shinier. For small time investor/collectors that may need to sell portion of their investment every now and then to cover for unexpected things, I feel that the stability in gold at least means you won't be fair too bad.
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Valued Member
United States
63 Posts |
not many can afford gold that's why silver is now the poor man's gold, $40 in .999 gold is like size of pin head vs holding a silver eagle in hand
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
 Welcome Bill99 an Poboxw! "For small time investor/collectors that may need to sell portion of their investment every now and then to cover for unexpected things, I feel that the stability in gold at least means you won't be fair too bad." See, that is me as I am far from established as I would like to be. I like to diversify as well via G an S, and in all likelihood will not drop below fifty oz. of silver, but gold is climbing SO FAST, if I don't do something now to add some more, I will never be able to. So the time line just seems logical to stay on gold, while it is still barley in buying range before it blows past 2000....
Edited by Silverhawk74 08/19/2011 12:31 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
Thank you Silverhawk,
@BILL99: Pin size or not, a dollar's worth of Something is a dollar's worth. If it's about size and quantity or about what $50 will get you, then we're really talking collecting and not investing
@Silverhawk: My thoughts exactly. Coming for a collector point of view I want to net a couple of full oz gold maple leafs before the price rises so hight that i'd have to settle with 1/4oz-ers. Just found a dealer here in Canada that haven't changed their price on a commemorative pure gold coin yet, making it a good buy if I can sneak in an order :)
Edited by poboxw 08/19/2011 12:35 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
619 Posts |
I ordered a 1/10 maple at melt a couple of weeks ago, and it finally came in today. It was already a decent deal, but in the two weeks since, it's become a great deal!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Two weeks, man CPC24 where did you order that sucker from Canada or Siberia, rof  .... Nice additon, I need one of that variety....
Edited by Silverhawk74 08/19/2011 01:44 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1143 Posts |
Timing is everything and yours was perfect!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5861 Posts |
All right, here's what I don't understand...
I agree that it probably makes a lot of sense to keep buying gold right now as a short-term investment, since it will likely keep climbing for awhile before it eventually crashes back down. Had I bought at $800 or even $1300, I'd have made a really nice return on my investment if I sold right now. And if I buy right now, I can probably make out pretty well if and when it hits $2500.
However, why are people still talking about buying gold as a long-term investment? It seems like everybody agrees that gold will eventually crash (at least to $1000, perhaps lower) -- the only question is when. What good is buying gold at $1800 if it crashes down to $1000, whether in a month or in a year or in five years, and then stays there for the next 30 years the way it did after the last crash?
The only reasons I can think of are (a) some people don't really think gold will ever go back down, (b) people think that after the crash it will eventually go back up within the next 20-30 years or (c) people buying gold now are really just trying to preserve their money as best they can and are not actually buying as a long term investment after all (on the theory that, unlike other investments like stock, gold will never lose all its value).
I am definitely interested in buying gold right now, but I still can't shake the feeling that as a long-term investment (especially when buying at current prices), it's really a sucker's game. I suppose if I truly believed the world governments were on the brink of collapse and that we are headed into a new dark age, then stockpiling gold would make a lot of sense to me. But if that were the case I'd also be stockpiling guns, food and water, buying a place out in the country, digging myself a fortified bunker, etc. Which is to say that, if the end of the world really is coming, I don't think having $100K in gold bullion is really going to make all that much difference...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
So what is long term to you Barry? I've been investing in PM since 1987, I've got silver with a cost basis of $7-$8/oz. I started buying gold about 10 years ago at $300-$350/oz. How's this for long term... in the 1960's you could buy a gal of gas for 20-25 cents, today if you have a quarter minted before 1965 the silver is worth more than a gal of gas. And yes many of us see the dollar continuing to fall long term. About the only thing that would turn my opinion around on that is the next election cycle but even then I'm afraid its too late. We have way too much debt, the only way out is the printing press now. See sig and welcome all you new guys 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5861 Posts |
Long term for me means at least 20 years (basically, when I hit retirement age). When gold peaked at around $800 in the early 80s and then crashed back down to the $300 range, it stayed there for the next 25 years or so. Had I bought gold then and wanted to sell it 20 years later, not only would I have not made any money on my investment, I would have lost quite a bit.
Obviously, if I had bought gold 10 years ago at $300-350, I'd be thrilled right now. In fact, I probably would have sold it all by now. The question is whether it's still worth it to buy gold now at $1800+, thinking it will be a good investment over the next 20 years or so.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Yeah I hear you Barry, but what would dollars in the bank have done since 1980 in terms of buying power? Things are different now that we are broke, we have run up all the credit cards to the max, gotten 2nd and 3rd mortgages and lost our job on a national scale.
BTW unfortunately I did sell my gold when it hit a $1000, but bought it all back and more around $1400. I do have Sept put options in GLD and SLV for downside protection.
Edited by GoThunder 08/19/2011 09:58 am
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Replies: 72 / Views: 5,638 |