The idea is that a dead stock, like a dead cat, will bounce when it drops far enough. That does
necessarily indicate a recovery.
If one problem (failing banks) is causing another (falling stocks), there's little the affected segment can do.
Segue to PM.
If the general trend for silver is up, (like for a dead cat is down), that doesn't mean it won't temporarily bounce in the other direction, which is what seems to be happening.
Look for a big downward bounce on gold before any long-term rise.
Here's a quote from Larry Edelson about PM. Larry has been trading for 33 years, and I feel that he is one of the most level-headed predictors, basing pricing on long-term trends like population numbers in age brackets, etc:
Quote:In the short term, there is no question that I have been conservative in gold and silver. And many have questioned me. That's ok. It's more a sign of how emotional many investors are now, which is also one heck of a sign that a turning point could be very close at hand in the metals as well.
I have, however, warned that gold could reach the $1,700 level and indeed it has. Nevertheless, I repeat my warnings of late: The recent rallies in gold and silver are NOT the big ones.
Those will come later, much later, heading into the worst phases of the sovereign debt crises which will not be here for a couple of more years. That is when gold will skyrocket to well over $5,000 an ounce -- to $7,700 -- and silver to well over $135.
It is not going to happen now. And if you want to risk a lot of money, go ahead, be my guest and buy into the gold and silver euphoria if you wish. I think you'll be sorry, and could face very steep losses in the weeks ahead.
Indeed, I am seeing very strong signs that gold and silver may roll over very soon to the downside. Last week's action in gold -- soaring to a new record high, then selling off sharply, is just one subtle sign a selloff may be at hand.
Silver did much the same, jumping to $42.25 and then plunging -- in the same day -- down to below $39, an incredible 8% single day reversal.
I have updated signals for you for gold and silver. But before I give them to you, a few further clarifications ...
I am very bullish both metals,
longer term. If you've been following me for any length of time and acted on my recommendations, you should own gold from much lower levels and have very nice profits!
You should keep the long term in perspective, and not worry or get wrapped up in the short-term movements. Gold can still rally here to $1,750, even $1,800 or higher.
But as I said before, these are NOT the big moves up for gold or silver.
Those moves are a ways off, and getting overly emotional right now and caught up in these markets and the emotions of the times will be -- I can almost guarantee it -- hazardous to your wealth.
Having said that, it is also entirely possible that both metals will not turn south, as investors all over the world panic and go to "cash." If that happens, here are the support levels you should be watching for.
As you can see, gold has many more support levels under current prices than silver does. That is very significant, and it shows you that longer term, gold is much stronger than silver.
But it also tells you something else: Silver is again vulnerable to a CRASH. If silver closes below the $38.86 level -- which are now very close -- silver could easily plunge to $30, and lose more than 20% of its value in a heartbeat.
Now, I fully understand I have a lot of enemies in silver. But that doesn't bother me one bit at all. I have been around these markets for 33 years and I have the experience, the instincts, and the tools to have complete confidence in my forecasts.
I know when to be in the markets, when to be out of them, and when in, which side to be on. Right now, I would not touch silver with a 10-foot pole (except from the short side, if you have the financial wherewithal and risk-reducing discipline to sell short silver.)
Now, to oil: In my last several columns I've been telling you that oil would be rolling over to the downside. In my June 20 column, I gave you a very important level to watch: $91.57, a close below that would indicate a weekly sell signal.
That signal is now in place and oil is collapsing. I now expect oil to plunge to as low as $80 in the weeks ahead. So I would not be buying any oil and energy stocks right now.
Quite to the contrary, I would be considering short positions via inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Oil And Gas (DUG) or the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO). These are double inverse positions so monitor your risk tightly.
Posted 08/11/2011 11:10 am
Loon22
