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However, in this day and age, we have seen the meteoric rise of a third kind of "unusual coin exposure" - indirect exposure, where the person sees a news clip or YouTube video of somebody finding a rare coin in change that sells for an exorbitant price, and they want a piece of that action so they go looking for similar coins so they can sell them.
I think that's a completely valid way to become interested in the hobby. Treasure hunting is exciting for many folks.
I also think you are missing a fourth class of people interested in coin collecting: investors. Rare and valuable coins have become popular as a component of many people's wealth strategy.
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A small percentage of these people will actually get good enough at "finding stuff in change" and actually take an interest in learning about the coins they find that they become collectors, but it's not the traditional "old coins" or "foreign coins" they're into - it's errors, varieties and similar oddities in currently-circulating coins.
Indeed. Three years ago, I started poking through pocket change and got a few rolls of nickels from the bank. Today, I have a growing list of reasonably successful cherrypicks.
When people explore hobbies, they generate a lot of flashes in the pan. The amount of sports equipment available at garage sales should tell us that much. As long as a small percentage converts into long term participants, the hobby will remain healthy, regardless of what first got them interested in coins.