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Where Are All The 1972 5c Coins?

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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1005 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2011  4:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ozcoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
aarong,
I think you have been lucky.
I went through $340 before finding one.
I did a spreadsheet using the mintage figures from the RAM website and then comparing the proportion of 72s to the total number of coins made.
From memory I think you would expect 4 in every $100 (I will doublecheck over the weekend)
HOWEVER this is based purely on production figures and does not take into account that 1972 was a long time ago and many coins will have been lost/destroyed or collected in that time.
I have averaged close to 1.25 per $100
Pillar of the Community
Enlil's Avatar
Australia
560 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2011  7:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Enlil to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I doubt they are deliberatly taking them out of circulation, I beliee it is the dillution from the massive issues of the 2000's, and natural loss through attrition.
Pillar of the Community
Australia
1005 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  04:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ozcoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Enlil,
My calculation took into account dillution up till 2008 as there are no figures for 2009 onwards on the RAM site
Edited by ozcoins
12/02/2011 06:40 am
Pillar of the Community
Australia
1005 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  07:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ozcoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Here are the key figures from my spreadsheet.
Up until 2008 the total number of 5c coins produced was
3972.8 million
1972 5c 8.4 million
Percentage of 5c coins which were 1972 is 0.2%
This would be 4 coins per $100 - but only IF there were NO coins removed from circulation eg lost/damaged/collected.
If 3% of coins are removed from circulation each year, then there would effectively only be 2.7 million 1972's still in circulation.
To adjust the "4 per $100" figure to take into account 3% loss each year
2.7 / 8.4 * 4 = 1.29
1.29 per $100 seems to also be very close to what I seem to be finding.
Is the 3% figure for coins being removed from circulation too high or low?
Is there anything I might have gotten wrong?
What do you all think?

Valued Member
In2Fish2's Avatar
Australia
124 Posts
 Posted 12/05/2011  05:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add In2Fish2 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hey Ozcoins,
Thanks for your hard work on the 1972 5 cent piece figures. They seem pretty accurate to me.
I noodled $100 worth of 5 cent pieces on the weekend and besides the 8 Kiwi 5 cents and a Canadian 10 cent found one Aussie 1972 5 cent piece. Backs up your calculations pretty well. The only hassle was it looked like it had been fired from a cannon after it had been run over on Parramatta Road during peak hour ! Oh well, at least I found one of the slippery little fellas.
Cheers
Pillar of the Community
Australia
1005 Posts
 Posted 12/05/2011  8:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ozcoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the feedback in2fish2.
I was beginning to think the stats were not of interest to anyone.
Your mention of the foreign coins reminded me of Enlil's comment about dillution. I have not taken into account that foreign coins have been added to the pool. From my noodling I think that there are usually between 10 and 20 foreign coins in $100 worth of 5c. That is between 0.5% and 1% of 5c so will have some dillution effect.
I also realised that I only worked out the 3% loss each year up until 2008, but since 3% was just a guess it probably does not matter too much.
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Enlil's Avatar
Australia
560 Posts
 Posted 12/05/2011  8:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Enlil to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
3% is a good guess, but I don't think any one knows, as coin issuance depends on more than coin loss.
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enworb's Avatar
Australia
4411 Posts
 Posted 12/05/2011  9:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add enworb to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You've done a fair bit of research ozcoins. Seems pretty accurate to me when looking at an average. These things still seem to annoy the heck out of me. I went through $210 last week and found none and then yesterday went through $50 and found 4. I know it seems stupid and is probably just luck of the draw but I swear I have better luck from some banks than others.
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