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 Replies: 107 / Views: 8,951 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
The big drop today was probably related to the MF Global mess and clients moving to new brokers. Apparently margins changed and many had to liquidate. Even Jim Cramer was dumbfounded with the metals move down. I think you will see a fairly rapid rise back to more reasonable levels.
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
The economy will get better, the question is when.
I see Europe coming out of their debt crisis with a closer political union to go along with their common currency. They may lose a few weaker members along the way but the end product will be stronger.
The US doesn't have a debt problem, we have a political problem. We have the means to pay off our debt but no political agreement on how to do it. Again, I look back to the 80's. Politicians eventually came together to rewrite the tax code and fix social security. It can happen again.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
It is a free market and it goes up and down. No such thing as a pullback = just the regular flex of a commodity market. Beef does this a lot so I have been through more market cycles than I want to count. Sometimes I win and sometimes I do not.
I like buying Silver when it gets around the $30 mark - it is worth the gamble to me.
Economy - strange event my wife lost her job today. The first time for the family but nothing different than what a lot of people go through. Not going to cry like most people though.
So with that said play the market to have an opportunity to win. And remember there is no such thing as a pullback, the stuff goes up and down and sometimes for no logical reason at all.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
666 Posts |
Like I said originally, this is all just imho... Tulips / oil / whatever... they always follow the same path  google "Jean-Paul Rodrigue" I have my own idea of where we are on the curve. Scroll to the bottom of this link and select either the box for gold 1995 to present or 2000 to present. Then compare that with 1975 to present paying particular attention to 75-82. Edited by SpringCypress
11/17/2011 10:56 pm
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote:
And as far as silver, if you really start to read and research, you will see it has much more practical applications then you could ever imagine. It flows currency better then gold. I was at the physical terrorist this afternoon, and noticed three bottles behind the counter with the only text big enough to read said "silver". I asked if it was colloidal silver, the girl didn't know, but handed me one. Sure enough, about 8 ounces of colloidal silver. The last I saw was when silver was around $15, and it was $20 at GNC. She said this was certainly higher, and checked that it was $32.50. I forget whether it was 4 or 40 ppm, but unless you have a 55 gallon drum of it, it certainly will never be recycled. |
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
Personally I think we are in the "bull trap" phase of your graph. I expect another silver to take another good run before the bubble bursts. If I'm right, I sell at the right time and make some money. If I'm wrong and it keeps going up, I still made money. If I'm wrong and we are heading towards "dispair", I have some nice shiny proof sets that I like.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3670 Posts |
SO BF you are saying they make oral medicine which is composed of silver, or did I not understand that correctly?
I hate those stinkin tulips from multi century's ago, so often mentioned here, at least ten times I have heard them made in that reference, all by different posters. Which baffles me as flowers are once again ORGANIC LIFEFORMS, and silver or gold is metal or a NON ORGANIC element created way back in the beginning of the Universe. Organic is temporary, metals have the potential to last forever even if the form changes a million times along the way.
I understand the point and did like the thought behind the graph in ref to bubbles. But it sure seems like we have come along way since then, with a weee bit more access to information then they had in the tulip craze era. Or heck for that matter, the big money investors that took such a loss back in 2008....
Perhaps most of us all will be all wrong, and Spring cypress will be dead on. But for that to occur in my estimation, we would need to see silver fall back to 15 bucks an not move any direction other than a buck or two each way for a real long time, for me to say o.k., IT WAS A BUBBLE AND IT BUSTED.....
I think the big difference that all who buy into PM's are on a bubble theory is.... houses, tulips, land, pork, whatever, are commodities AND NOT CURRENCY. The thing is, many look at gold an silver as currency (as it has been for countless eons) whether it is or not, well that is irrelevant IMO....
Edited by Silverhawk74
11/18/2011 12:24 am
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
Whether you call PMs commodities or currency we had a very similar bull market for silver and gold in the late 70's / early 80's. That was a bubble and it burst. Thirty years later we find ourself in a very similar situation. Why is 2012 different from 1982?
I would say industrial use would support a price of $20 per ounce with a healthy global economy.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I could buy that JSH, and great to also point out the Hunt brothers crash from the early 80's as again so often mentioned in the argument that silver will again tank....
Key word that could make me buy it is "healthy economy", and with adjusted inflation I am afraid your 20 dollar theory would be way underestimated, more like 28 to 30 and perhaps continuing to climb depending on how much demand arises in next 15 to 20 years, verses how much the earth yields....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts |
I truly believe silver is WAY undervalued and would predict that it will be in the $100 range within this coming year and stay there permenently.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
the graph works when assuming the dollar you measure it against is stable. I'd turn the graph upside down to represent the path the value of the dollar is taking, with us on the "denial" run with no "recapitulation" possible
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
My understanding is the the Hunt brothers were only trying to corner the silver markets. Gold also had a huge run followed by a equally huge crash in the same time period.
Inflation will push the price of silver up over time but I don't look for long term investments that only keep pace with inflation. Demand may increase but it also may fall due to some technological breakthrough that replace silver with a less expensive material. Lots of variables. My key question centers around whether silver is a good buy at current prices. My answer is no, not if you are planning to buy and hold.
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New Member
United States
29 Posts |
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The economy will get better, the question is when.
I see Europe coming out of their debt crisis with a closer political union to go along with their common currency. They may lose a few weaker members along the way but the end product will be stronger.
The US doesn't have a debt problem, we have a political problem. We have the means to pay off our debt but no political agreement on how to do it. Again, I look back to the 80's. Politicians eventually came together to rewrite the tax code and fix social security. It can happen again. Wow. I admire your optimism. Instead of going into detail about why I see things differently than you, I ask you to take some time out of your day and watch this amazing, interesting, and insightful interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWgtzwqWh60 <-That explains things better than I ever could. (Everyone should watch it IMO)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
666 Posts |
Since the late 70's / early 80's the dollar has been quite stable when compared against inflation. Colloidal Silveris used in alternative medicine as a cure all. There hasn't been much study done into this though. What work has been done points to colloidal silver leading to symptoms such as Argyria, kidney failure, liver issues, etc. A bubble is a bubble. To me it doesn't matter what bubble you're talking about. The reason the tulup bubble is so often referenced is because to my knowledge it's the first modern bubble to be recognized and studied. There's just as good an argument as to why their value should be affected due to being organic as to there is to them being inorganic. Neither argument is directly related to bubbles. As to Kyle Bass... I serioussly doubt any hedge fund manager has the general publics best interests in the forefront of their minds when they're releasing media blurbs made to look like interviews to the world at large. Their primary concern (and rightfully so) is to their investors. (I didn't watch the whole thing... have to go to work... It's more than an hour long.) As I've said in every response in this thread, this is just IMHO. I'm no economic expert. I'm just a physics teacher. I very well could be wrong. BUT... Serioussly... Last night on natgeo there was a show on about Psycic Gold Hunters... To me that means we have to be somewhere between media attention and delussion. Edited by SpringCypress
11/18/2011 09:30 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
part of the reason why I don't think gold is in a bubble, unless something else goes "poof" with it.  Edited by poboxw
11/18/2011 10:14 am
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Replies: 107 / Views: 8,951 |
First Page
Posted 11/17/2011 9:39 pm
