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Opinion - The World Will Run Out Of Silver In Nine Years

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biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2011  10:32 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
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barryg's Avatar
United States
5855 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2011  11:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
By 2010, the U.S. Mint announced that they had run out of sillver [sic] bullion blanks. At the time, they also suspended production of American Eagle Silver Proof coins. Why? The answer is a simple. The didn't have the supply to meet the demand.

I didn't realize this. Obviously, though, they managed to find more silver bullion blanks. They even ended up lowering the cost eventually.

Quote:
Fast forward to November of 2011 and that trend is on track. In fact, silver prices are increasing exponentially.

Exponentially? I do not think that word means what you think it means. During the month of November silver started out at just above $34, dropped precipitously down to $30, and has only slowly been creeping its ay back up to $33.

Although I'm certainly willing to entertain the possibility of this article's main thrust (peak silver is upon us and prices will rise sharply when it hits), the specifics of the article make me doubt the guy knows what he is talking about.
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muddler's Avatar
United States
7192 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2011  12:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add muddler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What will happen to silver prices when the TONS of silver from the discovered ship wreck off Britain returns to our markets?
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biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2011  12:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A ton of silver is 24,000 ounces. Solar panels alone use over 3000 tons.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  01:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with Barry.

Additionally, there are a number of GOOD reasons for buying and holding silver coins, bars, and rounds. Getting too excited about running out of silver, however, is not one of them IMO.

From the human perspective, the Earth is a BIG place. There could still be a LOT of undiscovered gold, silver, oil, and anything else people find useful buried under the Earth's crust in places where people either just never bothered to look or were unable to look due to inadequate technology. Extraction technology has also improved a lot in the last 100 years, allowing the exploitation of mines and wells that were previously considered as too low in ore or oil grade to be commercially viable.

There may well come a time when the Earth is completely developed and no more of the minerals that we need are available. Such times are often hugely exaggerated. Just remember that as the easy-to-find and exploit deposits of oil and minerals are consumed, other deposits that are more difficult to find and exploit will be used to satisfy the demand for those minerals... at a higher cost, of course. It is entirely possible that silver, gold, and other valuable mineral deposits will be found on the moon at some point, if it is sufficiently geologically similar to the Earth.

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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  03:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In 2010, about 22,000 tonnes of new silver was mined. The largest silver mine in the World (Cannington, in Queensland), has only just come up to maximum production rates, at 38 million ounces per year. The mineral deposit for this mine was only discovered as recently as 1992. This a a reasonably rich deposit, and the cost of production per ounce is the lowest in the World.

How much existing silver in the World is recycled annually?

What is the World annual silver consumption?
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DavidZerbato's Avatar
United States
1081 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  07:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DavidZerbato to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't necessarily believe everything in that article and am extremely skeptical. First the title is "The World Will Run Out of Silver in 9 Years." That simply is not correct. There will almost always be silver in the earth, the problem will be how easily can you get it, not to mention recycling efforts. That article also states demand has outpaced supply, however on their nice little graph, the demand, while increasing, has not outpaced supply in any year to date. This seems to me to be one of those hype articles to get people to buy silver.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  5:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
How much existing silver in the World is recycled annually?

What is the World annual silver consumption?


Good questions, SEL. The answers to these and many other besides can be found in the pages of the following web site:

http://www.silverinstitute.org/

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United States
759 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2011  5:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add OneBowl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Earth will run out of air first.
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MJS's Avatar
Sweden
38 Posts
 Posted 12/03/2011  10:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MJS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It seems like there often are references to gold discoveries, but with silver at best it seems that disused mines are being reopened.

One notes in the long list of vast mineral deposits waiting emergence from Afghanistan - silver is not mentioned!

It will not "run out" - just as gold will not run out. An above ground circulating stock is present.

What will happen eventually as the supply continues to constrict relative to demand will be a higher silver price as it continues to emerge from a super long term historical bear market. Eric Sprott is correct. Basically from its recent and ultimate bottom it can only continue to go up (with much volatility, sense of risk and setbacks along the way).
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biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 12/03/2011  10:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Too many predictions assume straight-line movements. Today, there are lots of uses of silver that are just plain impractical to recycle (silver tooth amalgam, threads in clothing, windshield heaters). If silver started having gold-like pricing, these would be practical to recycle, so at some point, price will result in more silver being available. Ditto deep-sea mining, which is just now ready to come online.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 12/03/2011  6:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Deep sea mining has HUGE potential. If it can be commercially realized, it will be a real game changer.

In addition to a vast array of metal ores, there is also an amazing substance referred to as "methane hydrate". This is an ice-like water-methane molecule that forms under great pressure but cold temperatures, such as exists on the ocean bottom. If the pressure on it is reduced or the material is warmed, it falls apart into water and methane again. If the amount of this stuff is anywhere near as large as it now seems to be, it would be a tremendous energy resource.
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