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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
Exactly, can't worry over what was paid for past purchases. If you buy more at lower price it helps the higher price come down!
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
849 Posts |
Yep its all about cost per Oz. Its a long term investment not a short term.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1454 Posts |
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They really just should let Greece leave the Euro and all will settle eventually. They wish it were that easy, Angel. It's the PIGS, as they say. Greece is a tiny problem compared to Spain. Italy isn't much better, I've heard. And then there's Portugal. I predict Germany, or perhaps the Nordic countries, will leave the EU within the next 2-5 years. Their citizens will demand it. |
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New Member
United States
29 Posts |
Larsdog said: Quote:
I agree that price drops are common in a bull market and spikes are common in a bear market. The article you linked to was very interesting, and if you mean we are in a long term bull market, that may indeed be true. Using the terminology of that article I believe we are in a "vertical collapse". After that collapse the slope may gently climb indicating a bull market. The background is different today than it was in 1980, but the same factors are at work: 1) Supply and demand, 2) Speculation, 3) Emotion. I contend that the fairly steady line from 1989 to 1996 at $400 per ounce represents the supply and demand part of the price of gold. Factors like use of PMs in consumer electronics, demand from India, etc. are all part of the equation. Even folks that want to hold on to hard currency are part of the natural demand if they hoard 90% silver or .999 silver all the time. The stock market provides better long term returns than PMs, but when gold and silver become volatile, the ride gets very bumpy. That's because speculators jump in to try and make a quick buck. Every piece of news is scrutinized - the Rupee is down so demand for gold in India will soften - that was front page news in the Wall Street Journal yesterday! Then emotions kick in and people who never were in PMs before think they "need" some for protection. The fever builds until the bubble bursts. Then gold and silver bounce around for a while looking for their new natural supply/demand price. A market stressor caused the turmoil in the first place so the new "normal" may be quite different. Silver returned to $5 an ounce, but gold stabilized at $400 - double what it was before - when the 1980 bubble burst.
If the world economy collapses or some other catastrophic event occurs, all bets are off, but otherwise I would expect the PM markets to stabilize at some point in the near future. I'm not saying prices are flat - it could be a "secular bull" - but much of the volatility leaves the market because speculators can't make much and the emotional players leave. I'm guessing silver will stabilize around $15. Gold may be in the $1000 to $1200 range. I think we are in the correction now, but that's just one opinion. You discussed some factors affecting gold prices, but don't forget this one:  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
No doubt there are lots of driving factors in both directions and whether we are in a bull market or a bear market remains to be seen. I just think we are in a bubble bursting. When it's done, it just may begin the steady march back up over time. The big question is where will this drop take us? I say $15. Others would be surprised to see $25, but I've been saying $15 since silver was at $31.66 3 weeks ago. If silver crashes through $25 it's hard not to admit it's a bubble bursting. If it rebounds soon, I am wrong.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
You guys are thinking short-term.
-The price is what people are willing to pay. You get the amount that you can considering the current price. It relates to your salary and your trust in PMs. ("Well I entered in at $35 so it should go lower so I can buy more." or "Well I entered in at $35 so I want it to go higher so I can sell." Everything is relative. We can't just shake hands and agree on a price because everyone is at a different level.)
-Also, lots of you guys are numerologists, just admit it.
-If silver were to be traded interpersonally it would have to be worth $50 at least. An ounce of silver isn't worth carrying in your wallet for only $25. That's just my opinion. For it to have real worth and buying power it would have to make a dent in your gas tank.
-Just to clarify my opinion, I wouldn't consider carrying an ounce in my pocket until it can get me out of a jam. And I wouldn't ever carry gold around for that purpose because it's just too easy to lose and too expensive. For practicality, silver has to be $50 and gold at $1000 (and under a sound economy) to be useful in everyday transactions. You have to think long-term, is what I'm saying. Any talk of bubbles is by short-term traders trying to make a buck.
Edited by Libertad
05/15/2012 8:32 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
What you say is true, Libertad! But I don't believe in the long term wisdom of PMs. My investments are in the market. I'm also not a speculator, not in the traditional sense. I think I see a bubble because it walks, talks and quacks like a bubble. I'm just trying to time my purchase of '59 to '64 mint sets and the markup right now is quite a bit for the 90% silver. If silver drops through $20 I'm hoping to get those sets for quite a bit less than the $40+ they are commanding now. There are also a few 40% silver items I might save a little bit on.
If I'm wrong, I will have to buy those sets at the $40+ price, but I see no reason to panic. There could be some savings in my future!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1195 Posts |
Silver is about as low as it was in December, when I bought my first ASEs!
I just hope that this low holds until, or goes further down by, Friday afternoon so I can go back to my chosen coin dealer and flip some spare Cupronickel Ikes into halves, 40%-ers, and/or a junk-grade 1887 s Morgan when I'm in Chico for my last final. I've got about $40 tied up in extras acquired in the past few months
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
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I have 350 Canadian silver dollars I am trying to sell in Toronto area and are getting no takers at $17 per piece :( Why did you wait until that was more than spot? |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
590 Posts |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
When throwing price graphs around, you have to ignore any data before 1975 because the worldwide price of gold was set by by the US gubmint, not by market conditions.
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Valued Member
United States
110 Posts |
I think it is all based on the strength of the US Dollar. When the dollar loses value people jump into pm's. When the dollar goes up in value people buy dollars. Right now the dollar is rising in value. There are other variables but the value of the dollar is the key.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
The title of this topic should probably be changed. I'd say silver did more than "dip" below $30!
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Valued Member
United States
196 Posts |
How low will silver go!- Title
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
849 Posts |
Silver below $27 now.... wow what a drop
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Replies: 743 / Views: 51,994 |
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Posted 05/15/2012 5:57 pm
