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Silver Dips Below $30

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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  6:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It seems the market is shouting QE3! QE3! And the spin doctors are working their butts off fueling Bull Fever.

The thing is......QE3 causes a devaluation of the US Dollar. Which in turn causes all commodities valued in USDs to go up. And not just Gold and Silver......but includes things like; GASOLINE, HEATING OIL, Meat, Grains, Milk, Soy, ect ect. Now isn't that what you would want if you were the current President in an election year? Large Corporations making huge profits off of QE3 while the individual VOTER suffers from higher energy and food prices. Oh, and lets not forget that the individual is not buying that food, energy and housing are excluded from counting as inflation. After all what does the average person spend 90 percent of their income on?

Another funny thing this is my slowest business week, by far, since the last crash. NO ONE is buying physical Gold and Silver right now. I contacted a couple of other dealers and they too are reporting the same lack of business. In fact I just bought some 90% from Craigs list for below spot. And the seller was well aware of the spot price.

I also did a survey of some of my best Customers. long term stackers. All of them said the same thing; that they remember all the other times there was a price run up. And everyone went out and bought, bought, bought....and then it crashed and they were left holding high priced PMs.

Perusing this very board I see some of the same reactions.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  7:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
QE3, like the other QEs, is nothing but a way to inflate stock prices. It does nothing for the economy, although some folks will feel better if their retirement funds appear to be growing. What they do not see is the hidden tax called inflation. For every dollar of share price increase, they are likely to see at least a dollar of loss in their purchasing power. It is a fools' game, IMHO, and the best way to win it is not to play. The more games that are played with the US dollar, the less of them I want to own and the more PMs I want to own. They cannot print gold or silver out of thin air like they can fiat currency. Anything that is unlikely to be ruined by government bungling seems well worth owning.

Also, when foods and other basic necessities are inflated, it isn't just a problem here in the US. Many commodities are priced around the world in US dollars, so as the dollar declines in value from over-printing, the prices of most commodities rise to compensate. This can be devastating in those parts of the world where people spend much more of their incomes on necessities. When the prices of flour, sugar, rice, beans, and cooking oil rise, those who simply can't pay any more for them have to go without. This can be a tremendous source of anger that can boil over into violence.

As a scientist, I literally cringe every time the Fed or BLS come out with some new way to calculate that inflation or unemployment are better than they really are. Scientists have respect for the truth and do not see it as something that is pliable with the demands of politics. If good political decisions are to be made, then let them be made with the support of the best data that we have and not on self-serving political whims that benefit the few and not the many. The 1st thing one does in order to solve a problem is to ascertain that there IS in fact a problem and not simply pull the wool over our own eyes with bogus numbers until we can no longer see the problem. Failing to see a problem does NOT make it go away.

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larsdog's Avatar
United States
593 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  8:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well put, Ed, but telling the truth is not a good way to get elected (or re-elected). Therein lies the root cause of our problem, IMHO.
Valued Member
silverdollar2011's Avatar
United States
385 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  8:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silverdollar2011 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
funny how the majority of people here probably gotten their "financial education" from reading the Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver by Mike Maloney or the equivalent lol, I keep hearing the same things repeated...
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  8:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'll second that! Ed that was very well said! I am in complete agreement!

When I was a Detective the only thing that mattered were the facts! Not my or anyone else's biases.

After Engineering school ( Go Bucks!)the only thing that mattered were the facts. I am a big fan of Occams Razor!

I just love how the Government says that if you are no longer drawing unemployment then you are NOT unemployed!

Ok...back to Silver....
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larsdog's Avatar
United States
593 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  8:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My financial education is an MBA from Abilene Christian University. I am not stacking PMs personally, but I am in the market for a few collectibles that are driven by the PM markets. I find the dialog here interesting and respectful. Rather refreshing, actually!
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macmercury's Avatar
United States
5832 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2012  9:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I just love how the Government says that if you are no longer drawing unemployment then you are NOT unemployed!


How true!

That's how our financial analysts calculates on economic performance, it comes down to just numbers.
Edited by macmercury
08/23/2012 9:44 pm
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 08/24/2012  7:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Well put, Ed, but telling the truth is not a good way to get elected (or re-elected). Therein lies the root cause of our problem, IMHO.

Thanks, Lars, but only Sheeple react to things this way and why the heck are they even allowed to vote, anyway? They are apathetic to the point of being comatose so why worry about voting? Just continue to chew the Cud and watch reality TV.


Quote:
funny how the majority of people here probably gotten their "financial education" from reading the Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver by Mike Maloney or the equivalent lol, I keep hearing the same things repeated...

Never read that but am BIG on financial common sense. Most of that was given to me by my parents and grand parents, all of whom lived through the 1930s depression. My parents were just kids then but the grand folks were adults. I used to ask them LOTS of questions about those days and loved learning from their experiences.


Quote:
I'll second that! Ed that was very well said! I am in complete agreement!

Thanks, JMK. I learn a lot from your posts too. This is what this site is really all about... learning by sharing. Good stuff!


Quote:
I am not stacking PMs personally

Unless we are consuming 100% of our incomes, we are all stacking. Some stack currency and some stack PMs. Currency is handy stuff and I have my share of it but I really prefer the shiny stuff to fiat paper. History seems to be on the side of PMs as well, given that abused fiat systems all go broke eventually... and they ALL get abused at some point because they can be abused.


Quote:
That's how our financial analysts calculates on economic performance, it comes down to just numbers.

I would be OK with that, Mac, as long as they were REAL numbers and not some baloney that was dreamed up to make some politician or other and their policies look better than they really are.

The unemployment numbers are a classic example of how not to collect REAL data. These numbers are based upon a survey that gets mailed out to about 150,000 employers... out of millions of employers. I am pretty sure that a lot of these surveys are not answered at all or if they are, are not answered factually. The really strange part of this is that the US Treasury collects a HUGE amount of data in real time from ALL employers due to tax withholding. The US Treasury also publishes this data and virtually anyone can have access to it. If the BLS or the Fed, for example wanted REAL data on unemployment, all they need do is ask the US Treasury. The US Treasury KNOWS this stuff and it is both current and accurate. Because neither the Fed nor the BLS has any interest in this data it is pretty clear that they do not want facts. If they did they could very easily obtain them. Instead, they have to "calculate" what the rate of employment is and then "adjust" it after a few months when no one cares anymore about 2-3 month old info.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 08/30/2012  12:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So let me ask; what happens Friday if there is nothing definitive concern another round of QE3?

I ask because the market is closed for three days; right? But only in the US. So what happens if the international markets dump their positions a full day before they can in the US?

Or does it work differently?
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 08/30/2012  2:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anything can happen. Who knows anymore. This thread has been quiet due to silver's upward prices I guess
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 08/30/2012  6:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
When I was a Detective the only thing that mattered were the facts! Not my or anyone else's biases.

Exactly so, JMK. Facts are evidence. Opinion is usually biased unless based upon the training, experience, and skills of a recognized expert in some field of interest to the court.


Quote:
So let me ask; what happens Friday if there is nothing definitive concern another round of QE3?

Great question. Wish I knew. My guess is that the recent surge in PM prices was predicated upon getting some sort of QE3 announcement or a comment from the Fed about being ready to do that sometime after the election.

There was almost an air of certainty a month or so ago that QE3 would be announced at the 8/31 Jackson Hole Fed meeting. As we get closer to that, this certainty seems to be waning. This could be why stock prices are pulling back. If there is no QE3 announcement, it will not be good for stocks or PMs, IMO. We could see a temporary return back to around the $27-28 range where silver was stuck for a while and $1600 for gold. This would be good, for me anyway, because I would like to buy some gold at a better price than $1655.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 08/31/2012  11:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ok....so I switch on the news and see gold and silver skyrocketing and headlines screaming that Bernanke has pulled the trigger on QE3.

Then I read his statement. NO WHERE does it say they are implementing QE3. In fact it repeatedly says that 'the bar is higher to implement non traditional (QE3) fiscal policies. And then gives 4 reasons why it might not be a good idea, but conceeding that at the present time there is, probably, no damage from the previous QE's.

Bottom line, Bernanke waffaled around both sides of the issue and the bulls took what they were starving for. I.e. absent positive statements to the contrary 'qe is baked in the cake'.

Bernanke is on record as saying that he doesn't have to implement qe3 to move the markets. All he has to do is suggest it and they edge higher.

And isn't that all he has been doing now?
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 08/31/2012  7:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes, that is exactly what he is doing... jawboning. In any number of instances, this has proved to be more effective than actually doing something. A lot of this seems to indicate that stock and PM prices are more a matter of perception than of fact. QE is nothing but money printing, so more QE = a lower US dollar value = more dollars are needed to buy that oz. of gold or silver.

Like you, I heard the "news" on TV and understood that QE3 was a done deal that would be implemented shortly, most probably after the Nov. election. Then, looking up his comments on Internet, I did not see anything in his statement to that effect, so now think that people are reading into his statement whatever it is that they want to hear. The stock cheerleaders on CNBC, of course, are saying that QE3 is a done deal and that we will be seeing it shortly. We very well might but that is not what I heard in Bernanke's comments.

As I said in a previous thread, Bernanke does not want to use up any ammo that the Fed has left unless and until it is very clear that we will slide into another recession unless he does something. If he uses his only remaining ammo before that happens, he will have nothing to use then and he is right to fear that situation.

The one thing that I agree with Bernanke on is that a lot of what people want the Fed to do to solve our financial problems is not the Fed's job. It IS the job of the US Congress and the White House. Unfortunately, they are not doing a very good job of working together right now and virtually nothing is getting done. About all we can do is hope that things will get better in 2013. I don't see that happening if the same people are in the same jobs in DC, however.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 08/31/2012  8:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ed, of course it is perception. ALL classic supply and demand data show a drastic decline in the purchase of PM's. All show a glut of silver on the market. All show that the much anticipated Indian "gold buying season" is going to be a serious wash this year; with the watered down Rupee. I have read reports which say that a Goldsmith in India can not even buy raw gold with which to ply his trade. That it takes about 7 months of GROSS wages for an Indian goldsmith to even buy half an ounce of Gold.

Interestingly this morning I talked to a number of other dealers and they all read Bernanke's text and they all came to the same conclusion we did.

One last thing. Since when is it a good idea to buy when the price goes up? But that is precisely what many of the commentators are saying. Sometimes I think that is what is keeping the price up. Too many "bought HIGH, and are now afraid to sell LOW".
Valued Member
silverdollar2011's Avatar
United States
385 Posts
 Posted 08/31/2012  10:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silverdollar2011 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Normally, in the good o' days, when gold/silver rises, platinum and palladium would both sink. Gold and Silver were once strongly connected to the stock market... the recent price jumps of silver bothers me, prehaps, silver is being pushed up by scammers?
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