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Replies: 73 / Views: 7,209 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1454 Posts |
Quote: How original, a forum with entrenched camps. A forum that wasn't would be far rarer than gold, I think; but you'll like it here if you stick around. Please don't let my inane ramblings steer you in the wrong direction. Besides myself, people on this site are truly gentlemen (and ladies) in the strictest sense of the word. My post was said in a joking vein, anyway, Sixth. I already like reading your viewpoint. It's refreshing.
Edited by traevin 07/22/2012 11:42 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
@Sixthcents - A contrarian opinion on gold is often good to read. It challenges me to think through my own opinions and prejudices regarding how best to weather our current economic troubles. I want PMs to be part of sound hedge strategy, not an inflexible religion. I may not agree, but I appreciated your post.
Your comment regarding tossing away aluminium containers reminds me of several critical items we might miss in a SHTF scenario. For example, helium is on my short list of things worth stacking in the near future, along with toilet paper (the real cornerstone of civilization), and cases of good scotch.
It all comes down to a matter of degrees. The worse things get, the more desirability and necessity will shift among an endless list of stackable goods. Ultimately, none of us has a perfect crystal ball. If aluminium is the play that makes the most sense to you, go for it!
Edited by coinwatch 07/22/2012 10:55 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
135 Posts |
Thank's all!,
I just want to clarify, I was just using Aluminum as an example of a metal that was very expensive in the last hundred years when it's rarity made it more expensive then Silver.
I hope we never get to that point.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Gold's simply the most well known, Ed. Indeed it is... and for good reason since typically it is the largest non-cash item by weight and volume in any vault where it is stored. What we do not see in bank vaults are barrels of oil, stacks of lumber, or bushels of grain. These things are commodities as well but that is all that they are. Gold is money and has been for a VERY long time.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3167 Posts |
In my opinion, silver is obviously the best choice considering how it has performed in the past, plus, in the recent precious metal price rise, silver did better in percentage than gold. I rest my case.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1391 Posts |
"Historically it was harder to spend money, as silly as that sounds..."
Actually it is very silly and anyone with a little learning in history knows that that statement is more the received wisdom of our zeitgeist and our modern chronological snobbery than anything else.
My problem is that you are just being contrarian. It is easy to complain about the entrenched camps. Dig your own trench. You have not presented anything systematic. So far it has only been, this, and this, what about that? Some of your underlying points are even incompatable. It is easier to scoff than it is to make a working theory.
Now the historically high price of aluminum is an interesting point. However you misrepresent it is a few ways. It was never rare, it was just difficult to refine. History is littered with similiar examples of commodities or products that were once valuable. Take Nutmeg for example. During the Middle Ages and early Modern era a small sack of nutmeg and you could retire for life and live very comfortably. Now I can buy it in bulk at the store.
Could it happen with gold and silver? It could. You are missing the point though when people point out that it has survived longer than all the other stuff, aluminun, nutmeg and hundreds of other things that are only footnotes now.
Sure a company could tow a solid gold asteriod to low earth orbit and mine it. Would that change the price of gold? Yeah, but at the same time it would even out. After all, not all the objects in space are made of gold or silver.
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Valued Member
Canada
135 Posts |
Not silly at all, we have thousands of new ways to spend money, much more competition for Gold then in the past. Frankly, it's silly to think otherwise.
"It was never rare, it was just difficult to refine", the same can be said about Gold. By "refine" I am including the act of mining, which is critical before you can refine. Some estimates say as much as 95% of gold is still in the ground. Gold is much easier to get now then in the past.
Heck, by 2001, ONE SINGLE ONTARIO AREA produced 67 million ounces of gold. 12 TIMES AS MUCH GOLD AS THE KLONDIKE GOLD RUSH!
Aluminum has only been available for a hundred or so years.- You can't predict how valuable it "would" have been because it was non-existent.
The marketplace has infinite new ways to spend money, compared to the past.
I feel I backed up all of my points of view with a reasonable explanation.
Or does the adage go "Buy high, sell low"
Again, one thing history tells us, is a value of metal is determined by its practicality.
You forget to mention the 500 year period in which only Royalty had copper tools. It took a lot of gold to buy a copper tool at this point in history. This is the parallel you need to draw.
Stable gold prices over 5000 years is only good if you live 5000 years. ;)
Again, in the context of this thread and the OP's question, there are better, safer, more profitable investments then gold, at this point in time.
If you bought 5K in gold to day, you might make a couple hundred bucks, more likely you will lose a couple hundred or thousand.
Availability is what makes gold expensive. If you restrict the access to other metals, they will skyrocket.
You can build more electronics with copper, you don't "need" gold at all, it's just nice to coat connectors with.
If the SHTF, people will be instantly building crude electronics again. -This is what changes history folks.
Copper is the gold of our era, as in value, not "price". Sure golds expensive, I can by expensive wine to, but that is simply a luxury, that will give the same buzz as a $5 bottle of wine.
**In this day and age, price (in USD) is not a good indicator of real value.**
In a way, it's the same as when copper tools were "invented", it lead to an explosion of industry for 500 years. The same thing is happening now, except we are not chipping rocks with copper, we use copper to communicate.
In less then 5 years you are going to see copper hit $10 - $15 a pound, 300% ROI easy, if you get 3% ROI on gold in that time your doing well.
Your total lack of looking into the future is breathtaking, sure the past is a guide, that is all.
The new mines opening up in my province alone will make sure you don't make any real money on gold. It's simple economics, increase the supply and the prices goes down. The fact that gold is "rare" is even more worrisome when my province dumps millions of ounces on the market. Add to that the "New" mines being opened, as well as opening the old ones.
The gold production we have today, has never been seen before in history.
Edited by Sixthcents 07/24/2012 1:43 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
135 Posts |
FACTS: "More than half of all humanity's gold has been extracted in the past 50 years." *Ding*Ding*Ding* Here's a chart to help see the value. If you look at golds peak in 1980. and adjust for inflation, it was as high as 2300/ounce. Then look at the downward side of the peek.-this is gold production catching up and decimating the price of gold. Guess which side of the peak we are on. (Sorry, I can not upload the chart, I resized the heck out of it, then it says it won't upload a .PNG) Here is a link instead. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:G...e_in_USD.pngYou need balls of steel to slap your cash to the top of that roller coaster!
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Quote: In less then 5 years you are going to see copper hit $10 - $15 a pound, 300% ROI easy,... Copper is an interesting metal. If you can buy it at spot and have the means to store the volume and weight needed to produce a sizeable return, it does look very good.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: In less then 5 years you are going to see copper hit $10 - $15 a pound, 300% ROI easy,... Well, good. Maybe there is some hope for my FCX shares after all. 
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
"Copper is the gold of our era, as in value, not "price". Sure golds expensive, I can by expensive wine to, but that is simply a luxury, that will give the same buzz as a $5 bottle of wine."
@sixthcents: Your argument about wines is fallacious in that you're comparing [cheap wine to expensive wine] and [copper to gold]. The properties of these 2 metals are not the same and taste has very little to do with it. There is a different process to making wines of age thAn, say, mouth wash. There's a very good reason that gold and diamonds are expensive and it has nothing to do with rarity but with properties.
It's very hard to argue against you because where does one even begin...? Your points are interesting but the way you argue is just jumbled. When you talk about copper tools, do you actually mean bronze?
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Valued Member
Canada
135 Posts |
The tools were first made from a naturally occuring copper/arsenic alloy. Eventually they discovered how to make the "bronze" alloy with tin.
Copper age: -7000 to -2300 BC Bronze age: -3000 to 500 AD
Naturally you have some overlap of ages, dependent on where you live.
It would have been a really big deal to have a metal object back then. It change the way we hunt, build and conduct warfare. The big three industries of the time.
Edited by Sixthcents 07/24/2012 8:32 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5832 Posts |
From Gold or Silver and silver compared to gold. Now copper/bronze compared to gold, Aluminum compared to silver. What other metal we haven't compare to yet? And on the other side, cheap wines vs expensive wines!  Maybe bring in plastic!
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Replies: 73 / Views: 7,209 |