Wall Street Journal Gold Article

Yeah the Fed statement was the big news of the week, but it still takes a majority vote to make policy and how else can we pay back 16+ trillion in debt. Plus it is a world gold market and with Japan's buying of US Treasuries possibly coming to an end who is going to buy our debt if the Fed doesn't? The elephant in the room to me is we can't afford even the interest our debt if interest rates have to rise a lot to attract buyers of our debt. China has stopped buying it and may even start selling it.

That depends on how long term the debt is, if its a 10 year bond we need to sell the debt every 10 years. If they dump the 10 year debt back on the market after 1 year our new 10 year debt has to compete against the 9 year debt back on the market. At least that's how I understand it.

hmmmm heres my thoughts-

1- our markets, our economy will NOT go into total over the cliff end of the world nuclear explosion death mode. Yes we have suffered hard times, we had the great depression, we had a horrible slowdown in 08-09. But guess what, this is the only super power in the world and EVERYONE wants to buy our debt and live in America. Dont bet against America, you will lose no matter how hard it gets knocked down. PERIOD.

2- **unnecessary on a family forum**

3- China will NOT stop buying our debt. Japan will NOT stop buying our debt. EVERYONE AND THEIR BROTHER wants to buy our debt. PERIOD. this is no problem at ALL. The USA has a great thing, everyone wants to buy our debt! Dont be fooled by those that try to scare by saying debt is our problem. Its not. Guess what, if China and Japan stop buying USA debt, they are SCREWED. America has Japan and China by the short hairs. (Caps used for emphasis)

3- I was doing some prep work for next week. its clear, that gold and silver want to continue lower. I also think, based on some research I was doing, that the Fed will probably look at less bond buying and thats why the long bond is puking.. hence more rotation out of safe and defensive assets into stocks, and perhaps interest rates go higher, not a massive jump but slow but sure increase in rates.

All this adds up to better bargains in buying PMs. Long term, I think you wait for these days where theres massive dumps, then you nibble. Then, you wait for another massive dump, and you nibble again. and so on. and you buy quality coins over quantity. To me, the lower prices in PMs doesn't mean that they are done, rather that the market is pricing in a changing environment and they must go lower before buyers reprice them and step in to buy based on the current market enviorment.

And not to harp on it, but this is why I was saying, to me, APMEX being on ebay is a short term top... in other words, a lot of folks are gonna be caught buying PMs EXACTLY when the prices are going down.. and then they will go lower and folks are gonna be like.. "oh man I gotta dump" and then they will jump to the stock market, but by then, the market has already run up and at the moment they get in, the markets will dump on them....

Yup agree and disagree again shocking I know .

Completely agree were not really in danger of countries committing global economic suicide, we are basically every producing nations best customer. It is however important to understand we arent bullet proof. At some point people were saying never bet again Rome, or the Ottomans or Egypt ect. It is absolutely possible to destroy yourself from within with bad policies, they take time to erode it down as superpowers dont fall over night but eventually everyone in history has fallen and as much as we like to think were the exception we likely arent. I dont think it will be in our lifetime though.

I do agree PMs look like theyre going to be going down for a while. Some of its probably perception, some of it could be people needing liquid cash, some could be that a lot of people have already gotten the amount they are comfortable holding their money in, others could have just fled the market entirely from buying high and not liking the losses theyve taken ect.

We definitely underestimate our ability to overcome bad situations and work out of hard times when we stop tripping over our own feet and just let the cycles play out. That wont be true for ever but as of now were getting away with our mistakes. Like a pitcher though you can only hang so many curve balls down the middle before someone puts one in the upper decks

Yep, all you have to do is put humans in charge

First of all, I appreciate every one's opinions and thoughts.

To me, tho, I am not being sarcastic. Any world government that holds US debt has only two options 1- buy more of it 2- hope that the US doesn't go down because they will too.

IF the USA falls, so does the entire world. China is committed and stuck buying and holding US debt. This is fact. America has a great problem other countries only WISH they had- they can get into debt and sell their debt.

The USA is and will be the ONLY world super power. Tell me... who has 11 Carrier Strike Grps, AKA carrier battle groups? Russia? umm no. China? Try again. Canada? Nawww. North Korea? ehhhhh ... only the USA has the military might. Only the United States has the might and power that other nations seek and crave.

Therefore, to bet against the USA, to think we are going to suffer an economic implosion and complete utter financial devastation is far fetched and will not happen to the USA.

So, how does the above impact PMs? Well, clearly as things get better in this country, rates will slowly rise. The price action in the long bond is typical when institutional money is starting to unwind from safer assets and moving money, rotating it out. Part of this defensive stand with the long bond is the money that has been parked in PMs. Its going to seek out other areas as the economy gets better. This is not mere speculation- I am seeing this M-F and I Am in the middle of it every single day.

PMs will have strong head winds as the economy improves. But does this mean that they are done, that they are no longer need? No. All that we are seeing right now is the marketplace repricing silver and gold for a better upcoming global environment. In fact, I actually think, after the market makes adjustments for better economic times, there will be money flowing back to PM's, as it is already, gold is now viewed as a currency, rather than some metal that collects dust and doesn't pay a yield.

So, as I have repeated many times, keep your cash ready. Dont gobble up all the silver and gold you can buy all at once. Whether you are a collector or investor, there will be many deals and lower pricing to be had down the road.

BTW- my point is not to be political or cheer a certain government. The point is major changes in the USA...... and the world follows. The improvement in the American economy will carry over to the global economy. The money flows will leave bonds and PMs and venture into other assets such as the equity markets.

For now, China and Russia are actively pumping up their forces. At some point China will catch up to us, they have the money and for whatever reason we allow them to make a lot of our comm equipment. doesn't mean we wont still be a superpower, but its unlikely we will be the only one from here on out.

Weve only been one for a short time, USSR, GB, Germany, Japan were all world superpowers not to long ago.




For now, at some point it will the only question is when. All societies collapse under their own weight from government expansion whether it takes 100 years or a 1000 years is the only question.




Agreed. Silver will probably never see its 5 dollar level again from new industrial uses but I agree lower prices will be had over the next year or two if nothing else from the lack of fear as people adjust to the new economic climate.

Its very true the world needs us to survive right now, they survive in large part selling to us. Its just important to remember that while that is true now that doesn't mean it will be true 50 years from now or even 25 years from now, remember it was less than 80 years ago that we werent a superpower and really werent even thought of as a major threat, one of the fatal tactical mistakes of WW2

Well, I love you all guys but I sharply disagree and throw down all my money that China will NEVER EVER be a world super power and you can keep this posting forever. China will NEVER EVER be a world super power, and they cant be one. China suffers more than anyone else, look at how they are suffering now that Europe is in having difficult times.

Again, China will NEVER EVER be a world super power.

Japan, please, they have been stagnate forever, they will never be a world super either, NOR are they interested in being that.


EVERYONE and his brother wants to live on this soil. Canda is no paradise, shoot Canadians are demonstrating on the US Border and demanding more out of their government. So sorry but I haven't and don't see a massive rush to Canda. I see people from all over the world tho, are willing to risk life and limb to the USA.


Ok, so how do we get back to talking about coins and PMs?

In any case, while I am neither a gold bug NOR am I anti-gold, I do see PM prices going lower. I think the general public, those who got into buying PMs late in the cycle here are going to be disappointed. Deals will be had.

But to me, that's encouraging. I like the idea of a massive drop in the metals, a fear and panic that you start to see headlines talking about the "death of silver and gold". thats my buy sign for sure.

As a collector, I am really looking forward to that, because I have a LOT of catching up to do with proof gov mint silver and gold lol