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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,613 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
So how do you know a 50 cent pop isn't an indication of a change of direction? It is interesting that some say it will go lower than most would guess (like $12). Because of this, I wonder if it won't go that low since so many are expecting it. I admit I have no idea, but have enjoyed following the drop for the past few months. The only problem, if the price drops I am sad (my small collection is worth less). However if the price goes up I am sad (I can't buy as much today). Great, my new hobby has me sad regardless. If sideways, I am also sad. 
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
Austrowiki Great balance and points made.
I buy to have and to hold, not as an investment to play in and out of, so no, I need no exit strategy.
As mentioned earlier I do play with the paper PMs and in those trades I somewhat agree with Yup and his analysis. I use them to take gains and place the profits into physical that I can keep for security. I do foresee and end to this current financial system in my lifetime which is the reason behind my thinking and processes. I am not bothered by opposite opinions but I do listen and learn from some of them. I also think technical analysis works better for equities than for physical PM, esp in this manipulated market
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Oh oh Piffin you said that eleven-letter word.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors... Roll hunting since '77 Dirt fishing since '72
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New Member
United States
40 Posts |
Quote: Oh oh Piffin you said that eleven-letter word. LOL. I thought the same thing.
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
I want to make one point here...
markets have been volatile for WEEKS now.. and they been showing signs for WEEKS of wanting to do what they did this AM.
However, notice gold and silver. They are only doing the usual knee jerk pop and thats it.
The take away- institutional money is NOT parked in gold and silver. There is no interest in gold and silver as safe havens. Notice that the UST long bond is having an extremely great day... THAT is your safe haven.... not gold and silver.
Again, it just shows us, today and the price action, that gold and silver are not being bought up, they are not viewed as a place to hide out by the market. Be careful around a declining asset such as gold and silver.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Thanks Yup!
I wish you would post on this thread more often as I really enjoy reading your analyses.
What will be interesting is how low silver can/will go, and when/if you eventually see buy signals again.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Unless one is holding long, I might be concerned.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors... Roll hunting since '77 Dirt fishing since '72
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
yup says "There is no interest in gold and silver as safe havens"
So why are China, India, and Russia buying PMs hand over fist? and if the USD is so secure, why are they using their dollar holdings to buy it?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
With the market drop today, silver was largely left alone. To me, that shows a general lack of interest in silver. Money moving out of stocks, but anywhere but silver. Most seem to be parking in bonds.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
There is ZERO proof that China, India, and Russia are buying silver and gold hand over fist lol.
IF that was to be true, their foot prints would be shown by steady accumulation of the metals, which in turn would see silver and gold rising.
What we know to be true and fact is gold and silver are being distributed, that is being sold, are in a massive downtrends and no one is buying massive amounts.
That is typical gold bug talk. First they would want you to believe that the price is being held down because the market is so small... because theres only so much of PMs. But then, look at how they say "buying hand over fist".. well if they are, and if the market is small and easily manipulated, as the gold bugs such as Piffin claim, then their "massive buying" would cause extreme shock waves, dragging price up.
Dont be fooled by talk about Russia, China, or India "supposedly buying gold". Its nothing but desperate attempts to lure people into buying a declining asset.
The fact is today was further proof of how out of favor gold and silver are, how they are not safe havens anymore and their best days are in the rear view mirror.
The downtrend will play out on its own, and there is nothing even Russia, China or India can do to change that.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2019 Posts |
I wouldn't be too sure of that Yup, just because there is no so called proof doesn't mean they are not buying up gold. Plus we all know the Fed is printing out of control. Jim Rickards puts it all into perspective in this interview. http://pro.moneymappress.com/MMRBSSH47/PMMRQC09/? br / iris=252776&h=true More from Jim Rickards: Quote: Financial expert and best-selling author James Rickards' latest book predicts "the coming collapse of the international monetary system." One of the sign posts is countries like Russia declaring it will shed the U.S. Dollar as reserve currency in international trade. Rickards explains, "Putin said he envisions a Eurasian economic zone involving Eastern Europe, central Asia and Russia. The Russian Ruble is nowhere near ready to be a global reserve currency, but it could be a regional reserve currency."
Rickards' latest best-selling book, "The Death of Money," was released in April. Even Rickards is surprised at how fast the economic situation is unfolding. Rickards says, "If you ask me what has happened since you finished writing the book that comes as a surprise, I would say a lot of the things I talk about in my book are happening faster than I would have expected. Things that I thought would happen in the 2015 or 2016 time frame seems to be happening now in some ways. If anything, the tempo of events is faster than expected. Therefore, some of these catastrophic outcomes may come sooner than I wrote about."
Rickards goes on to say, "Right now, we are on the precipice now. When you are on the precipice, it doesn't mean you fall off immediately, but you are going to fall off because you can see the forces in play. What I tell clients and investors is it's not as if we are going to make some mistakes and some bad things are going to happen. The mistakes have already been made. The instability is already in the system. We're just waiting for that catalyst that I call the snowflake that starts the avalanche. You don't worry about the snowflakes; you worry about the snow and that it's unstable and it's just waiting to collapse. That's what the system is right now; we are just waiting for a catalyst. People ask me all the time, what could it be? Technically, my answer is it doesn't matter because it will be something. It could be a failure to deliver physical gold. It could be an MF Global financial failure. It could be a natural disaster. It could be a lot of things. The thing investors need to understand is the catalyst doesn't matter. It's coming because the instability is already there."
On gold manipulation and when it will end, Rickards says, "It will end when the physical shortage gets to the point that someone fails to deliver; which, at that point, there will be a buying panic. There could be a buying panic or what some people call a demand shock. One of the things I said about gold manipulation is if I was the manipulator, I would be embarrassed at this point. The manipulation is obvious. The evidence is coming in from all directions. . . . The manipulation is clear. When will it end? It will end when there is a physical shortage that pops up somewhere, or it will end with a short squeeze."
Rickards goes on to say, "We are going to get a very large demand shock coming from China and India. Let me explain those two cases. We have a brand new government in India, and they are going to repeal the import tax on gold. We also have the wedding season coming up. . . . So, India is set up for a very large surge in demand in the fourth quarter. Now, over to China, this is one of the things that it's happening faster than I originally thought. The credit collapse story is happening in real time. I said (in my book) this might be a 2015 event, but it looks like it is happening now. Defaults are piling up. We are seeing money rise. We're seeing people march down to the banks . . . trying to get their money back. . . . So, if they can't buy foreign stocks, domestic stocks, don't want to put their money in the bank and are getting out of real estate, then what's left? The answer is gold. . . . I see a demand shock coming from China. . . . You could see a scramble to buy gold. It is going on anyway, but you could see it accelerate. That will take down the manipulation. Once the markets prevail over the manipulators, then watch out."
Rickards says the collapse will happen, but he is not sure of when it will come. Rickards explains, "It is the thing you won't see coming that will take the system down. Things happen much more quickly than what investors expect." Rickards adds, "What will happen in gold is that it will chug along and then all of a sudden- - "boom. It will be up $100 an ounce, and then the next day it will be up another $200 an ounce. Then everyone will be on TV saying it's a bubble- - "boom. It's up $300 an ounce, and before you know it, it will be up $1,000 per ounce. Then people will say gee, I better get some gold, and they'll find out they can't get it because the big guy will get it. You know, like central banks and sovereign wealth funds will be able to get the gold. The typical investor will run down to the coin shop and they will be sold out, and the U.S. Mint will say sorry, we're not shipping. You're going to find out you can't get it because the whole thing is set up for massive shortages in supply." http://usawatchdog.com/catastrophic...es-rickards/Plus I heard it through the grape vine that the collapse has been postponed twice already , but that's just hearsay on my part.
Edited by Northerncoins 10/16/2014 12:57 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@Northerncoins
you are free to believe in what you want too, but there is zero proof that Russia, India, or China are buying massive amounts of gold and silver.
Again, IF that was true, prices would not be declining.
I know its hard for some of you die hards to accept that, and when one has a bias towards something, in this case on this forum, there is going to be a strong bias towards PMs, which then will allow confirmation bias, which is exactly what you are doing with posting those articles.
The fact remains that gold and silver are in strong downtrends, there is zero accumulation of the PMs by anyone. Put another way, the sellers are still overwhelming any sort of buying that is going on.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
@Northerncoins, Tilting at windmills even when there is proof is of little use and at times more than a little frustrating. It is all good, people believe what they are going to believe. Even mention market manipulation in the metals market is a big No No even with proof. At the LBMA forum in Singapore June 25, 2014, one of the keynote speakers was chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Xu Luode. In his speech he made a few very candid statements about Chinese consumer gold demand, that according to Xu reached 2,000 tonnes in 2013. In contrast to the Word Gold Council (WGC) that states Chinese gold demand was 1,066 tonnes in 2013. Xu's speech has now finally been translated and published in the LBMA magazine https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_...E/view?pli=1Let's go through a couple of quotes from Xu: Data on China's gold imports has not previously been made available to the public. However, gold has historically been imported through Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is highly transparent, disclosing details such as the number of tonnes of gold imported on a monthly basis. Last year, China imported 1,540 tonnes of gold. Such imports, together with the 430 tonnes of gold we produced ourselves, means that we have, in effect, supplied approximately 2,000 tonnes of gold last year. The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China. Of course, we all know that the Chinese ‘dama' [middle-aged women] accounts for a significant proportion in purchasing gold. So last year, our gold exchange's inventory reduced by nearly 2,200 tonnes, of which 200 tonnes was recycled gold. Again, we can read the simplified equation (for 2013): import (1540t) + mine (428t) + scrap (229t) = SGE withdrawals (2197t)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Yup,
I see this group as more "don't clean a coin" than silver to the moon. My guess is most don't plan to make money on silver, as it generally makes a poor investment, IMO. However , as a hobby it is great.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,613 |
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