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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,609 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Many of those buying silver care not about the price, but are buying as hedge against an economic meltdown.
I do find it interesting that the US Mint has had record SAE sales this month.
In the first eight days in October, the U.S. Mint sold 2,250,000 Silver Eagles.
Demand has been huge with the recent price smash.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
"Hobby" is a good word. Let's list some hobbies; Beanie babies, model planes, stamps, scrapbooking, painting, clothes shopping, collecting gadgets....
None of these have much of a chance of any returns. Silver/Gold? Pretty good chance.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
I agree as a hobby you probably lose less than most, and may even make some.
I actually understand buying as a hedge against a meltdown even less. Silver will not be used as a currency anymore than a horse will be used in a meltdown for transportation.
Food storage - yes
Fuel- yes
Guns and ammo- maybe
Just my opinion. It's a fun hobby for some.
Trying to time as investment only a little better than beanie babies. Time beanie babies right and you could have made great money.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
Quote:
In the first eight days in October, the U.S. Mint sold 2,250,000 Silver Eagles.
Demand has been huge with the recent price smash. mmmmm that's about 75 metric tones of silver sold from one outlet in 8 days. This is real silver, NOT paper Silver. The demand is obviously there so why didn't the price increase with demand? Before anyone says this is but a spit in the ocean , This is only one outlet What about all the other bullion sellers and their sales figures? I find it a wee bit strange that with such demand the price continues to get "Smashed", Unless of course there is a huge stockpile of physical silver "On Hand" at the moment  Just my thoughts on this and anyway there is nothing wrong with throwing a snake into the woodpile to make sure people are careful about what they pick up  |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
there is zero supply shortage for silver, and for gold... so I am not surprised people would continue to buy gold and silver even as it declines.
Hey its not my money, its theirs, so if they wish to buy a declining asset, what can I say? I know I wouldn't do it...
One can pound the table and insist that "so and so is buying so X" without having proof at that, and point to mint numbers and insist that it is all physical, not "paper".
However, in the end, at the end of the day, there is no winning in fighting the price action and what the market sets as the price. Only the price action matters and where its at and where it is going.
As I have discussed on this thread, silver and gold continue to run lower until the downtrend is broken. That could take quite a bit of time and clearly buying every single dip in silver and gold has not resulted in any sort of bounce or profit.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
oh and by the way, almost all collectibles you can make money on it....but it is all about the cycles.
Right now, tho the cycle isn't on the side of PMs.....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Surfing the PM stores, I have found many items out of stock, for instance, 1oz. bars.
Is this common?
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
People buy collectibles, no problem
Demand is slowly shifting to Asia - I noticed it for the last 4 years - my sales to Asia increase with the time.
As of silver - locally I do not see drop in prices - they are at the level when the silver was $22 - people keep buying it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1068 Posts |
Quote:
Surfing the PM stores, I have found many items out of stock, for instance, 1oz. bars.
Is this common? If the stores are adjusting their prices for the drop in PM then no it doesn't really surprise me any... Since no one knows how low PM will go, people are buying it up since it is at bargain prices compare to a few years ago... |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
Yup Said,
but it is all about the cycles.
Right now, tho the cycle isn't on the side of PMs.....
You are absolutely right,And as far as market trend analysis yours is much much better than many I have seen.
spot on much more often than not. And you are definite great asset to this community.
I realized after posting earlier today that knowing the information that I know about the physical market shows me that we both may be following Silver and Gold but I think we are following 2 definitely different markets.
The paper market thinks that there is at a minimum of of 100 more ounces of Silver and Gold in the market than there is actually in physical in the vaults. And this is directly from the mouth of Jeffery Cristian Head of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)
Also when the price in paper was smashed down to 8 a few years back there was NO Physical to be found. There was a definite short squeeze going on.
I think what I and others are trying to get across is this point. There is less physical to settle contracts than there are paper contracts out there.
As long as Comex and the CME can hold together the paper games they are being allowed to play the market will have these trends that you are amazing good at letting people know about.
On the other hand if a good number of contract holders decide to stand for delivery I believe there is going to be a serious shock wave that hits the metals market.
I always read what is posted and greatly appreciate your analysis and opinions
Stewart
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Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
First Majestic announced that it won't sell its metal into the recent weakness
First Majestic announced that it won't sell its metal into the recent weakness in the silver futures markets. In a statement the company said:
"Silver prices declined 19 percent in the third quarter, representing the second largest quarterly decline since the financial crisis in 2008. As a result of this weakness, the company decided to temporarily suspend silver sales in an attempt to maximize future profits. This suspension of sales will result in lower revenues and earnings for the third quarter. However, it is likely that these inventories of unsold ounces will instead be sold in the fourth quarter. As of September 30, 2014, approximately 934,000 ounces of silver were held in inventory."
This isn't the first time that First Majestic has withheld production amid price weakness. The company and its chief executive officer, Keith Neumeyer, long have acknowledged that the monetary metals are monetary and subject to attack by issuers of other forms of money. Unlike most other gold and silver mining companies, First Majestic is not inclined to cooperate with such attacks. It even mints its own silver rounds, bars, and ingots and sells them directly to the public:
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Valued Member
Norway
61 Posts |
@yup7676 - I wonder, you still haven't comment on my remark that prices hasn't declined that much for everyone else living _outside_ the us. As far as I can see now gold is back were it was a couple a weeks ago, all because someone now believes the dollar to be worth more (I beg to differ but thats just me)...it was a small time at 7780 NOk, now back at 8100 stable just as a example from here were I live...were it also has been most of the year, same applies as I can see for most of Europe at least. Only thing down is silver but its at same level as part of earlier this year so no big crisis there.
For me most of the price decline for now seems due to the dollar strength, nothing more. And off course some analysts that thinks Russia is a positive factor in Europe, and that the US is unaffected by decline in most of Europe etc.
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Pillar of the Community
2087 Posts |
I will respond to that: Gold currently stands at €973.607 oz. The US$ (Despite all the anti(Jealous?) Euro rhetoric) is valued by the market lower than the Euro. In europe there is a huge problem with Deflation. Even though in some Euro Zones house price inflation is over 10%pa actual inflation rate is close to zero. Its my understanding that Deflation is not overly good for gold. The problem I see is those still saying "buy gold" expect inflation( even hyper inflation to be just around the corner). The fact is the velocity of money in Europe and many other countries( including the US) is still declining. QE if it comes in in Europe will not herald inflation but rather a desperate acknowledgement we are probably in a depression worse that the last two. I would have thought that as gold is most often regarded as a hedge against inflation that deflation ins't particular good for Gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@christians86
long and short answer- the pricing that only matters to me and is the bench mark is the comex price. I dont care what else its priced in, means nothing to me, doesn't matter to me.
Therefore I do not follow gold priced in any currency other than dollars, nor is its price as reflected in other currencies mean anything to me nor of interest.
In anycase, gold in no matter what exchange rate or currency is traded in, be it euros, yen, etc, its STILL in a downtrend, its still going down.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@stewart-
I appreciate your encouraging words and kind comments friend. I am glad you consider the thread informative and helpful, really my whole point was just that, to help out.
To provide a narrative from someone whos actually trading these assets, someone who has no bias, I have nothing to sell to anyone, nor am I shilling for anything. I simple am showing and sharing how a trend trader would be looking at the direction of any asset and in this case, gold and silver.
To me, I mean all that matters is price. I have heard all the talk about "paper" versus physical etc etc etc. I have always ignored it, it means zero to me. Why? Well, I dont get paid by thinking or guessing whats going on and why, I get paid by identify and going along with the currents, not fighting it but finding it, following it, and staying with it until it shows me clearly it is changing.
Look at gold now. punched lower last week. almost touched yearly lows and bounced, has received buying.
However, is this it? Too soon to tell, we have seen this pattern and price action MANY times over the past year. I suspect we again see a counter trend rally until it reaches levels where sellers step in again.. then rinse and repeat...
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Posted 10/16/2014 8:11 pm
