What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

@Gothic

PRetty much the same rhetoric that I have heard from PM bugs for years now. Also saying averaging down a declining asset is OK is wrong. IF that was right, then I suppose those who bought silver at 30 are doing good right? What about those who bought silver at 25 thinking it was great? What about those who bought at 20? Excuse me but a 10 pt plus drop is not a couple dollar drop.

Hmmm, lets see, so if someone has been every single dip, they are under water arent they? Well, guess now we can debunk the smartness in cost averaging in a declining asset. Do not average down, it doesn't work in a declining asset period.

Commodities work on the simple, time honored and well established patterns of supply and demand. There is no demand, zero, for gold and silver at this time. There are no "secret buyers" buying here as prices drop. There is no bank or fund that is "loading the boat" on metals.

Prices are in a simple but powerful downtrend. Nothing has changed about that. It is kind of sad to see those die hards not accept the reality of whats happening to PMs but hey its their money, not mine.

Can't believe spot prices have dropped back this far. $16.36/oz as I am typing this. Too bad there is still a high premium on ebay.

Commodities work the same way as any other "investment." Speculators push them around and churn the market to create volume--round numbers at, for instance 17 on silver, will be run time and time again to trigger stops. In a "powerful downtrend" in something like gold we are about 1% below where we were last month at this time. That is not a prediction and I am not a goldbug--it is a fact. Yeah things can go lower and I am sorry to inform you that boat-loading does occur, sometimes by the market makers--see high volume of commercial shorts in the US dollar index. I'll shut up and let ya get back to your orderly retreat based on supply and demand--hehe. Take care.

@Hardspun8

We will really know the downtrend is done and over for good when

1- we stop making fresh yearly lows

2- price breaks the downtrend line.

This will take time, as in months, if not years. The element of time is key here, as it allows the sellers and buyers to establish who has control or will be in control.

Trying to find a bottom, like a top, is a fools game. It cannot be done. Rather what we look for is signals that price is either done going up, or down going down.

As an example, silver needs to stop making fresh yearly lows. It needs to just go into a period where it does nothing, just chops and bounces in a range first, and then breaks higher.

For now tho, because silver and gold are in strong downtrends, its going to take patience and allow time to let this trend play out. Its all a process. Its a process for prices to stop going down, and it will be a process for prices to go higher.

Finally, do not expect or pin hopes that prices will sky rocket back up again. They wont. As gold and silver go higher, from wherever that bottom is at, they will encounter resistance in the form of price, they will face overhead supply.

I am not talking physical supply either. I am talking points in price where sellers will step in, knocking down the price.

FINALLY, let me make this point clear. I am not saying that you wait till next week and buy, in the hopes that the move down is over and its all clear. It isn't. Silver and gold have been making these same moves all year long, dropping lower, consolidating, dropping lower, consolidating, dropping lower, etc.

So if one waits till next week, and buys the dip, prices may bounce, but its only temporary and you will find that where you purchased, well,,, it continues to decline from there.

The BEST thing anyone can do now is to not buy at all. I am afraid tho, that this being a PM forum, very few will have the discipline to abstain. So to settle the itch of buying, if you must, which I am against, after a few days and then buy a single coin,,, something to scratch your itch as they say lol. But again, I would not sink a single dollar into PMs as an investment as they continue to decline.

I have seen declining assets of all kinds, in strong downtrends,, and its not pretty when you see the final result. Many many many many times they run lower than you can even possibly imagine....

@domain555

This move in the market has nothing to do with capitulation.

Prices will only rise when the downtrend has played out in its entirety, and this will be a process, which will play out over time.

I will say it again, averaging in in a declining asset is the kiss of death. IF it really worked, then ask the folks who bought at 25 an oz if its such a great deal, as silver dribbles lower here lol But hey, its not my money lol

@Gothic

Sorry to say, but you are not correct. What are you talking about is all related to conspiracies, conjecture and the usual banter of the PM metal crowd who cannot accept the simple law of supply and demand.

No fund, bank, commodity house or investment group is loading the boat on gold or silver right now. There is zero accumulation, zero volume on the buy side. Rather, there is clear, steady distribution and volume of selling going on.

Hey you can float all the conspiracies and reasons why gold and silver are being knocked down. I have heard them all, seen them all.

Markets are pretty clear and simple; its all about price action, not what we feel a certain asset should do or why it went down or higher. At the end of the day, only the price action is what tells the truth.

Price has been telling us for several years now that gold and silver are still trapped in powerful downtrends.

jmkennell





Thank you kindly for your valuable information.



During the 2007 time period AG was in the $13 dollar (range). That might coordinate well with cull Morgans-Peace dollars selling for (only) melt value.

Coins are new hobby to me. Wish I would have been interested in Silver Dollars 7-8 years ago.

Regarding Morgans and Peace dollars, mine are all culls. I own one Morgan that might turn a head. I got it about 35 years ago in a plastic container. Not TPGed.

If (when) Silver trades (much) lower I will start stacking Morgans at melt plus (APPROX) $1.00