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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,340 |
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Valued Member
United States
405 Posts |
why when silver and gold go up the chatter on this thread dies? just curious
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Pillar of the Community
United States
711 Posts |
I would love to hear some opinions on the technicals for the US Dollar, the Euro, and the Canadian Dollar.
Kind of the inverse of gold, at least it used to be.
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Valued Member
United States
102 Posts |
was wondering if anybody has any opinion on china and russia now having a say in the price of PMs ?
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
18799 Posts |
There is a huge number of silver short contracts at this time. These contracts will need to be covered at some point. I think the squeeze will could occur around $18oz. It will be a buying panic and the price should move to 22 very quick. Just my opinion
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Valued Member
Australia
491 Posts |
The Perth Mints Silvers Chart In Aussie $$$  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1804 Posts |
Buckeye Quote:
I would love to hear some opinions on the technicals for the US Dollar My opinion. Basis JUNE futures. The Dollar did have major T.L. technical "closing" support at 97.20 For me, (very) short term bullish. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
sorry guys I haven't done much lately here, even coin collecting has been sidetracked past couple weeks with work.
Silver and gold, what can I say.... nothing but for now a counter trend move high, big deal. Really means nothing until silver and gold can break key higher levels from here so its really "nothing to see here, move along". If you have put your hope into the bounce higher, please dont as we aren't near any key levels yet to really even ponder that.
FRom the past weeks, I think, based on price action, that gold and silver only received a temporary reprieve from going lower. As I had mentioned in my last post, both gold and silver were really getting stretched to the downside and this is the result, the past week getting a move higher.
Again the move higher this week really means nothing UNLESS it can build on it and clear some key levels.
I hope to get some charts up so we can discuss together what we are seeing and what we would want to see out of gold and silver for higher prices.
someone asked about technicals on the CAD, USD and Euro.
As Domain555 said, the USD is still in a big strong uptrend even with the recent pull back, which no big surprise..
The CAD is stuck in a big strong downtrend and looks like after several weeks of basing might attempt another move lower to fresh yearly lows
The Euro also in a huge strong downtrend.
As with any trends, the Euro and CAD are going to be stuck in their downtrends for a long time. The USD will continue to power ahead in its uptrend for a while.
Remember, trends are like a huge ocean bound container ship. You cannot just throw the container ship in reverse and expect it to turn around 1-2-3. It takes a LOT of time and with markets, assets tend to follow the path of least resistance. So the current trends for those currencies are set in place for now and it will take time for them to reverse.
Finally, do Russia and China have any impact on gold? Nope, none. If you keep reading things that say they would make prices go higher and yet gold has been on a 3+ year downtrend, well its pretty easy to see that China and Russia have a net zero impact on getting prices higher.
Sorry again for not being able to put up some charts, hope to do that soon.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
819 Posts |
Silver will soon go over $50 per ounce, I know because I heard it on the radio! (by a company that sells silver) so there can be no doubt...going to rush right out and add to my stock (hoard) of about 100 ounces.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
I can agree with Yup.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
From my viewpoint, from my trading desk, theres really nothing to be had with silver and gold.. selling it short or buying.
We have had countless of these rallies, if you want to call them that... they really are known as counter trend moves within the trend. Sure, as a trader a break of key areas might make it worth a trade.. but who knows...
I mean, with these moves, I as a trader, for my time frame, right now, theres no money to be made in either selling it or buying it. It means zippo really. There are better spots to make money in the market.
Now I do want to say this. Overall, 2015 has been a not so great market for many assets. As an example, we are flat across the board indice wise. When you drill down deeper into the market sectors, market leadership in my opinion, is not very deep.
The financial markets, despite here in the US being near all time highs, some historical, are very very dicey. There is a ton of volatility, indecision in other words.
When I look at whats happening in markets outside of gold and silver, it seems like they are mirroring each other to an extent. In other words, theres not enough interest in pushing higher... and theres not enough interest to push the market lower. We are completely range bound for the most part.
I see this in gold and silver. Not enough interest to move higher.... not enough interest to push it lower. The sellers had every single chance last week to push it lower.. but it came up short. Now we go back to this boring counter trend move up.
Anyways, we will look at this together. I been very tied up with this recent market volatility so its taken me away from my hobbies and has held me back from posting here but I hope to have something up soon so we can look at where we stand and what targets we need to keep in mind to see whether this recent counter trend move can build.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Yup,
Given you follow a strict rule-based approach, why don't you write some programs based on your logic and automate the process. I can't imagine you just sit and stare at a computer screen all day.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
@Montana
The automation of trading question came to my mind too. I mean, why not? The algorithm (in this case, the rules for buying / selling) is pretty well understood. You'd want a degree of regular human monitoring for safety's sake (alerts to your smartphone). But beyond that? Seems doable.
In fact, I wonder if the somewhat predictable patterns being described in the PM market aren't largely attributable to heavy use of automation among traders in the first place? Human emotion / irrationality seem largely removed from the system.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Ok lets get right into it. Gold In our last updates, we had discussed how stretched gold was to the downside. There has been many days of just straight up selling. It even broke key areas even after many days of being down. However, when gold entered into these key areas of price where it should have broken down, it didnt. Instead of breaking down, it bounced off them. That in turn lead to the counter trend move we saw last week. AFter a week of trading from the lows, we see more ranges developing. Question is, what happens next? We dont know. Perhaps we are in this never never land of counter trend moves with false break downs. Perhaps one of these counter trend moves up actually holds for once. Again, we dont know the future and all we can depend on for the answer is the price action. so lets look at where we stand.  For starters, gold needs for the time being, on a longer time frame, to break 1307.81 before we can start thinking about higher prices. That's the upper most range. Next I call your attention to the 3 ranges that have developed. Between the 2 lower aqua lines we see where gold stopped dropping for now. It snapped the range above where it held and now is inside a 3rd range. In a shorter time frame, for higher prices, 1219.50 has to be broken. If gold is going to go lower, it has to reverse and break through the ranges it has gone already up through and then if and when it gets to 1141.60, a break of that number gets one lower prices in gold. What happens next, who knows. Gold is not on the top of list of any traders right now and only through time will its true direction become manifest. For the most part, we just are getting these false break downs, with counter trend moves.... which pretty much mirror overall market conditions across various asset classes. Silver  Silver is just like gold here. Came close to breaking down, hit key areas in price, was very stretched to the downside and managed to bounce higher and have a counter trend move higher. As is always the case, ranges in price develop. Key areas to watch are the upper range which is 18.51. Until that is broken, one cannot count on higher prices for now on a longer time frame. We then see each range silver has bounced higher from. For this week, on a shorter time frame, higher prices could happen if silver breaks 17.41. A breakdown and lower prices happen if silver breaches 15.26 on the lower end. Again, just not much to see here. No reason to buy silver, no reason to be a seller. For now, silver and gold remain a boring area of the market, going no where. Eventually, there will be a break that sticks but again, until then, no reason to be involved in silver or gold. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
nothing but lower highs and lower lows. Daily price action like this results in much lower prices longer term.
That is why the counter trend move last week didnt mean much, why it was no big deal and why there is no reason to get excited when gold and silver rise.
Until silver and gold can hit key areas above, expect this type of boring choppy range bound trade.
It will be interesting to see which way gold and silver break this current range.
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Valued Member
57 Posts |
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,340 |
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Posted 03/26/2015 2:42 pm
