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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2016  02:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The market is like a woman, impossible to predict, hard to tell what it's thinking and can change from day to day. My mining stocks have been doing well while my bio techs not so good. Miners were up, bio techs down. Last few days the mining stocks up and down to end the day with me at a loss. Today, all mining stocks down and bio techs all up. It's enough to make one get a knot in their stomach if dwelt upon. At one point I was wanting to dump one of the biotechs, but didn't. Going with what yup has said to practice, patience. I feel confident about the miners, but the bios had me a bit concerned, but looking back at the 52 week highs I bought in very low in comparison, and indicators said strong buy or buy when I bought. So now comes the hard part, waiting. If nothing else I will learn patience.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2016  8:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@yup. Question. With a trailing stop-loss order, over a 5 day period the volatility spread ranged from .35/share to .60/share. What would you recommend the stop order be set at, and how did you come up the amount? Thank you in advance.
zack
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2016  10:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
silver to gold ratio is screaming buy right now, but I'm trying to save up 50k for a house and am about half way through. Hopefully by this time next year I'll be able to save up 50k to buy a house. Do you think I should buy silver now or wait until I have a place to stay of my own?

I think even if I do pass on the opportunity with the upcoming recession another opportunity will most likely arise again in the near future.
Edited by greenprint
04/23/2016 10:47 pm
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 04/24/2016  09:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@greenprint
No one can tell you what to do, as you know your situation better than anyone giving advice. I believe you are right about another recession coming in the near future, so one must figure that into any big moves like buying a house. But, if it were me, I'd buy the silver and sit on it. I'd also not take possession of the silver. I'd go with one of the silver stocks that hold the metal mentioned on here in prior posts, like SLV. And just wait it out. Or maybe buy stock in the miners, like many here have done, then flip it into SLV. That's my plan. That's my 2 cents worth, which isn't worth as much as more experienced posters on here.
Pillar of the Community
AgCoinAu's Avatar
Canada
3049 Posts
 Posted 04/24/2016  1:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add AgCoinAu to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You're saving 50K to put into a house.. and half way there...

How would you feel if when you invested that savings it lost 15-20%?

Don't think about what you can gain.. you must be able to accept what you can lose!

Silver is a very VERY risky investment, and I would never suggest you going into PM's with more than 10% of your total portfolio...

Having said that... I did swap my gold for silver when the GSR was at 80 discussed here https://goccf.com/t/254056 ... as long as the GSR is 80 or above I will continue to buy silver... and right now it has some positive price action... so I may pick up a bit more here and there but I've already taken in my position with silver and now it's just a waiting game for me...
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  12:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Zack

your question is really one I can't really answer for a number of reasons.

For starters, what asset is it you are trying to buy? I personally have various stops I use depending on what I am trading. What may work for me may not work for you.

The other factor is time frame. I am not an intra-day trade. I work within a specific time frame, based on market conditions, set ups, asset I am trading and other variables.

Finally, I dont use automatic orders of any kind. I personally manage all my stops.

The other observation I would make is a stop should not be overly complicated. One cannot really determine the volatility of a certain asset over one weeks worth of data or month.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  12:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
wanted to put up a few charts up this week but just dont have the time but lets talk the key numbers going forward.

lets first say again and repeat for the millionth time: price action in the metals, like silver is constructive and as it continues, pushes the probabilities up that its officially in an uptrend, more later on that.

Gold is in an uptrend. It is simple as that. Gold hit yearly highs so that is our complete, 100% seal of approval of the market you could say, that it is in an uptrend. If you dont believe that simple truth of price action and think prices are going lower, well you probably are going to miss the entire move lol

Silver

the price action last week in silver is exactly what you want to see and observe to determine how strong the buying is and who is in control. Very explosive move out of the range repeatedly thanks to steady buying. Buyers looked tired towards the end of the week, normal.

Ideally, it would be nice to see silver pull in a bit or just go sideways, make another range and then push for that yearly high. Last week it came within cents of the yearly high. Typically, ranges, when they are broken, the direction of the range tells us exactly where the asset is going. IN this case, silver broke the ranges last week higher and so probabilities are high that yearly high is a good target.

The numbers to watch this week are-

see if silver can get over 17.72 and then go past the yearly high, which would be 17.77 Watch to see if silver breaks the Friday LOD which was 16.91


Gold


nothing to really say. Still range bound. Nothing wrong at all with that. so far looks like the range is getting narrower and narrower. Last it it got back into some key b/o areas in fact.

AGain, this is fine as it goes sideways. Notice it hasnt crashed back down. the more it just goes sideways and keeps trying to move into its previous 52 high areas, the higher the probabilities that when the range is broken, the push is up and explosive.

So again, nothing really to see. Uptrend still in place, sideways action and the next point of interest is for when/if that 1287.80 area is hit.

Miners in general also are in up trends and are market leadership. This is where the money is flowing into besides the PMs. If you havent bought miners and sitting on the sidelines you are missing out. One will make most of their returns by being where the funds are buying, buying the market leadership.

final observation- past couple weeks many parts of the commodity complex (grains, softs etc) the price action has been constructive. There have been some pull backs in the final part of the week in some but you have to expect this with trying to get out of a downtrend. Perhaps as a whole commodities are trying to turn around. Time will tell.



FOr now, stick with the trend until price says otherwise.


Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  11:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@yup
It was the stock WINT. Bought it and it's been loosing money. Today made the decision to take a $300 loss, sell the stock and put it into miners I already have in the portfolio that are doing well. They can't all be winners can they? Just had to suck up my pride, give up the hope it would turn around and leave emotion out of it; take the loss and move on.
I use the trailing stops in case one of the stock really turn south; except for the miners. No stops on them, only the biotechs and ADES.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  11:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Your not alone Zack..I've lost more $$$$ gambling on bio's than anything else...still sitting on RLYP and GNCA and SYN..at least my INO is up...never thought mosquitoes would bring cash in my pockets!
Toughest group to invest in...don't even talk to me about KBIO. I lost a bundle.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  12:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@zack

i looked at it, yea, not being mean here or trying to make you feel bad, but absolutely zero reason to be in that stock, its dead. Downtrend, below 10 bucks, not very liquid, which isn't always a bad thing, but way too thin and at yearly lows.

You did well by taking the loss. Better to take a loss, admit you are wrong, and move on. You did the RIGHT thing by selling, you were in a loss, you dont want a loss to grow bigger.

HINT- I am way more wrong than right, despite the fact that I solely trade price. Sometimes, other issues are lurking that we as traders dont know.sometimes a trade doesn't work because market conditions are getting ready to turn... Thats when stops cover your butt, you stop out, you move on. so I might get stopped say 4-5 times, maybe 6.... but guess what, then I find 2-3 that work and those cover my losses on the stops AND make a large profit.

you cannot escapes losses and being wrong in the markets. Its normal. Whats a major unforgivable sin tho is to buy/sell short wrong, be in a loss, and then stay wrong. One will always be doomed if one follows that course in trading, investing in financial markets.

However, if you buy right/sell short right, as expressed by price, set a stop, even if you are wrong and get stopped out, its OK. STAYING WRONG is NOT OK.

I dont want to get this thread derailed but biotechs, most, even the better ones, really are either doing nada or trying to build new bases so there is zero reason to be in biotech stocks. In fact, theres really no reason to have much money in the markets right now, basically since November of 2014.

the time to be in biotech stocks was actually years ago, I was making money hand over fist on the IPO biotechs, riding them until they broke down and went into yearly downtrends. IT was great, all you did was follow the yearly highs,the up trend, buy it, sit on and dump it after months and months and then slowly watch them die and implode. Fun stuff.

Again, all you have to do is follow the price action. If you lost money in biotechs its because you bought in the wrong spot. Right now tho, biotechs are not favored by the market, some price action has been constructive but its an area of the market that needs a lot of time to heal.

Dont ever use "hope" in trading. Only believe and trust your STOP and obey it. Profit will take care of themselves.

Same as miners, price action tells us all. Buy assets at yearly highs, sell short or stay away from assets at yearly lows.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  2:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@yup
Thanks for the advice. Since becoming an active trader in the portfolio (It didn't do well after just putting money in and 'forgeting' it) I have had to adopt the mindset I have at work in the medical field. You cannot become emotionally involved; it will tear you up. It might sound cold, but it's a means of mental self defense.
When I'd look at the portfolio and see a red loss, at first it hit my gut. Now I just look at it objectively, see what's been pulling it down, decide to dump it or hold. The other biotechs have good indicators, making a bit. The big money makers are the miners though. But didn't want all the portfolio in just miners, and with my little bit of experience, the biotechs I bought were down, and volume was good. Indicators said buy. What I've got left I am willing to sit on for awhile and watch. Heavy into miners though. I believe PM will pay off. Going to ride this baby to the top, with a little help from my friends ;-)
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2016  2:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@mycoguy
Since in the medical field, that may have slanted my perspective when I bought the stocks, as I figure I know a bit more than other investors in this field and could see the opportunity. But guess what? Have decided investors don't really seem to care about medical advances, just growing their portfolio. Go figure. As yup has said, follow the money. But what I've bought I still believe will be a good long term investment. VTVT, XBIT, CPXX. We need new drugs in the medical field and these folks seem to be on the cutting edge. BUT, that's MY opinion. So, going to hang on to them, but not bank on them for the near term. My big money is in the miners. I was buying physical, then decided to just stash my stack and go with miners after reading this thread. Might be a bumpy ride but going to hang on.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2016  10:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Really not much to say lately as we really havent done much...

silver, been up 8 days in a row. Cant really see it pushing higher here and even if it did, doubt it would hold or go higher. It would be good for silver to pull back soon.

gold, continues to chop and bounce around. could go lower, could go higher, tho seeing a move lower wouldnt surprise me.

miners look ok but need some resolution here, either lower or higher.

Pillar of the Community
MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2016  3:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dang, Sell the miners?

Yikes!
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2016  3:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
whaddya NUTS Montana? Come on...where's your positive spirit! I think Mr. YUP has miners he's HOLDING till the bitter end, and, plays buy-sell-flip, with others(most likely the biggest names, with the most price action)....I have both..ones I flip,(3, or more days "scalp", so I don't run into settlement issues, which can lead to supspensions at your trading house real fast), and, ones I wont sell until gold hits.....fill in the blank..I don't want to jinx it, or look stupid.
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