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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  03:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I will purchase Livermore's book and read it. Well, I must admit I got greedy. I shouldn't go home and log into my account and watch my portfolio. It went down day before and was going down again, but the miners was still showing a profit, so decided before loosing more, I'd sell and then jump back in once it bottomed out and I could buy even MORE stock. But at the end of the day, I had sold at the lowest price of the day.
@yup
Reason I bought some ABX was it was rated about a B-, large company with a lot of trading so easy to buy/sell, a lot owned by corporations. On my graph, the fast MA had crossed the slow MA so bought some to be "Diversified". As for why buy at $18, it looks to me by the graph, $18 would be the new floor for the price so figure it will be back down to 18 in a day or two. Sold the SILJ as was still in an overall profit and the fast moving average line had dropped and crossed the slow moving average line. Figured I'd jump back in on the way back up, able to buy more shares this time from the profit (greed once again). The entry points you suggested is below what I sold for :-/ So will set at the computer for the next two days watching the price in order to jump back in. This time proceeds from ABX will go into more PAAS and SILJ. The SILJ has been the best performer for me. Once back in, sounds like I should stop checking the progress every morning and read Livermores' book instead.
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  04:19 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What's the mathematical formula for silver price? I know not exact because then I would be rich but best fit. Like let's say I take the average cost per ounce of silver on a monthly basis and go back as far as the data allows us and their this date into a nx2 matrix... Plot it. Find the least squares fit relation. Had any one tried finding the curve? It's been awhile since my linear algebra and statistics days.

Could we not find the curve and more days points the better. I rember some truth density chance percentages of next value being X stuff..

Anyone?
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  10:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Just wanted to call attention to stock, a gold miner that has been mentioned by me here.

GOLD, or Rangold Resources, reported earnings. HORRIBLE earnings reaction today, despite being a stock hitting 52 highs previously.

We will discuss at a later point how we avoid scenarios like this. For now, if you were looking to buy the dip on this stock, I would avoid it, again at a later point we'll discuss how to deal with ERs and stocks at 52 high lists.

Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  11:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting forecast greenprint..I saved it in my files...we'll see how those pundits do by the end of the year, just to check. I seriously doubt anybody can predict futures based on data today, as the times we are in really have no similar history to compare with. Maybe the 1930's, when devaluation was rampant,, leading to extreme hyperinflation, as in Germany.
Most of those "Gold to $20,000" sites use the hyperinflation model to chart their predictions.
I'm no expert, but, each record high was followed by another record high(1980, 2011), and, bullion seems to repeat itself on both the ups and downs, with time and price. I would hope the next run leads to a new record high..
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  11:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dang, I'm glad I sold some of the mutual fund over the past two weeks.

Do you think the miner run is over for now? I don't mind selling the rest as it's still up overall.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  11:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hang tight Montana...this is a normal selloff, and, a good thing, to be rid of all the algo-speculators taking profits...let them get out, and leave dodge. The real players are waiting with baited breath to make their move in, either as a secondary buy, or, a primary. The next wave up should make over 1300 real fast, heading to 1350 as the next floor. Things will move fast, probably. Friday's NFP result could start the next upswing. Even if it comes out as expected, the money is in the wings, waiting. This next move up may make Jan-now look small.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  12:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Jumped back onboard at $12.10 for SILJ. Got more shares for my $, as I sold at 12.45. I knew by watching the market that around 10a is when prices really drop, but jumped the gun. Oh well, at least sitting on 1110 shares waiting for ignition. Now need to download Livermore's book and get some reading in and stop watching every little dip as yup recommended.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  12:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@MontanaCMR

if you cant resist pull backs and have a hard time with them, I guess it depends on how you feel. If you cant handle these sort of moves you should probably sell. I would also say that if pull backs make you want to sell, chances are high you are carrying to many shares. The people who always ask me that or even traders who fret with that question are just carrying too many shares of an asset.

Keep in mind, the big money is made in the sitting and waiting. Be forewarned that sometimes, a b/o can retrace from where it starts. Thus far we havent seen that in general mining ETFs and each mining stock acts independently on its own.

If you are worried you are going to lose your profits, then sell it. However, again remember, I repeat, the big money is made by sitting and waiting once you are in the trend. Also, the more you keep jumping in and out, and adding much farther away from where the move started, the more risk you carry that one day buying the dip blows up in your face and doesn't work at all or takes longer. Then you will start to face the psychological hurdle of why didnt the buy work... why isn't it going higher, why is it so slow going higher etc.

I really cant tell you what to do. Thats the thing about markets. First you must find a method that allows you to buy/sell right. Then you must decide on what suits you emotionally the best, how much do you put in, what is your time frame?

When its your money in there, then the mind starts racing. Unless one is disciplined, can control ones emotions and has a proper system to buy/sell, one will be doomed for failure. That will either happen because one had profits but then gave them up quickly or stopped paying attention to overall market conditions.


I can make suggests based on my experience and what works for me. But, being all humans and different, my emotional make up, as an example and experience is going to vary from the next trader who may not feel comfortable with buying 52 highs as I am. He may or may not see or feel comfortable in doing and may not fully grasp my method.
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I was just trying to interpret if you thought the poor performance by GLD was an indicator of the entire sector.

I'm also aware that nobody knows where the market is going, and recognize there is risk. My plan, for now, is just to leave it potentially for a few years.
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United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  1:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
you mean GLD the metal based ETF or the miner I mentioned earlier, GOLD, Randgold Resources?


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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  2:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My bad, GOLD. I think my fund has about 5% GOLD.
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United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2016  2:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@MontanaCMR

well going back to your original question and my answer is no. one stock doesn't represent an entire sector, this sort of thing with GOLD is common, some do well, some done.

As an example, ABX did pretty well and so on.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2016  5:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anyone interested in a gold "penny" stock, look at Amarillo Gold OTC AGCBF...I bought some the other day when it was 0.17....today, 0.2362...+34%...seriously, when they get into full production, this one could be a winner. Maximum profits when buying this low.
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2016  8:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So I am starting to think of a semi-yup approach to these funds. So far,

1. I like finding funds that are at 52 week highs, but have been clobbered for years. So ideally, 52 week highs, but not all time highs.

2. I like Yup's approach of entering by buying initially, and then progressively smaller amounts.

3. Different, but I still like taking some off the table after crazy run ups. Then, I can throw it back in after a bad week, as long as it still appears to be in an uptrend.

4. I still have no idea how to determine when an uptrend is over. I'll look to this forum for advice when to get out of the PM markets.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2016  9:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
just a few things-

Gold- made yearly highs last week, up days in a row, which 2 days alone it moved 40 dollars... thats some serious steady buying. If you are bemoaning that its pulling back I dont know what to tell you. I mean you have an asset at yearly highs, out of a FOUR YEAR DOWNTREND and continues to grind higher with very little in the way of price pull backs. It spent 2 months consolidating... what more would you want?

Clearly, the buyers are in control for now and it will take a lot to stop this trend and momentum to stop.

Looks like we might be getting another range forming so stay tuned. Look to see if it bounces off 1263 or if it gets into that area in price, how does it react?

Bottomline- gold is in an uptrend. Those who have been buying the dip have not been caught out but been rewarded, so no change in character. Next price point of importance is if/when gets over 1306.

Silver

Lagged gold for a while. Formed a range or base for 2 months. A few times it fell out of the range but was quickly bought back up into the range. That was clue number one of who was in control between sellers and buyers. Clearly buyers were showing their authority by pushing it back repeatedly into the range.

Then that explosive move came as we covered in last weeks charts. 12 CONSECUTIVE up days in a row. That pushed into yearly highs and gave confirmation that silver is an up trend.

What more do you need to understand or grasp that simply put, buyers are in control of silver and not sellers. Anyone who thinks some day silver is just going to roll over any day now is either high on something or is just full of wishful thinking lol

With such rapid, non stop buying, silver is showing incredible strength as it has backed off by about 40 cents from its yearly highs. If we step back and look from where silver broke free from, the 16's range, its still way above that.

Again, just as with gold, silver is in a clear uptrend. Its pulling back so far in an orderly way considering it was bought day after day. A pull back MUST happen and is HEALTHY. It helps silver reset and allows for the smoother ride up. Dont fight or panic when pull backs happen, especially we are at the START of the uptrend and its early.

The next target to watch for on silver is 18.06, breaking that price brings us more highs. simple.

stick with the trend. If you have been buying right, your concern is not about pull backs or whether the trend is done. I will repeat again for a millionth time: the big money is made by sitting on your hands, letting the move in price, let it follow the trend and allow it to do its thing. Stop worrying about when the trend is done, we just barely started it.
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