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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 460,949 |
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Valued Member
United States
287 Posts |
Yep, you said, "I think you might find yourself getting turned around tho if you keep cutting and jumping back in, then frustrated as the market moves away from and back to where you were at. I would suggest you cut your sizing down more, slow down and stop chasing "
I could not agree more.
I also agree with your morning assessment and summer outlook on gold. I personally think we are going to get a summer silver surprise.
Ed
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Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
Remember, everyone, that relative strength is just that, relative, for miners in a bear market. In the last big bear, in the 80s and 90s, movements above 70 on the RSI were grand while they were happening, but didn't guarantee any lasting satisfaction. Set the chart to long term: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp...art-BGMI.phpWe just had our first 70 on the RSI (14)--in this big bear--not biting here. But good luck to all the bulls!!
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
Thank for the advice yup and ed. I do need to stop jumping around, write a strategy down and stick to it. I didn't sock money away for too many years and now am looking at a 10 year period before retirement, so it's coming down to the wire so to speak. Putting money in now on a monthly basis as much as I can. Biggest chunk is the SILJ as I believe silver has the best potential in upwards movement. Plan here is once it has reached a tipping point where silver outpacing the miners, sell the miners and buy silver held in London or Canada. On other stocks besides SILJ I will be using a trailing stop loss from here on out. I seem to be able to pick those stocks going upwards, but my timing is off. As stated, I need to stop jumping around and calm down. Am a perfectionist in a World that is not perfect. Am new to the market, so need to learn as I go w/o going broke. :-) No faith in sustainability of fiat currency, US debt out of control. PMs seems a no brainer to me. Before the fiat bubble bursts, would like to be well positioned in silver for retirement. Hoping to build up a nest egg while I can before going all silver. Thanks for the advice.
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Valued Member
Australia
491 Posts |
Interesting PM prices! Good Luck!The AU$ makes PM's look not so good.
The AU$ got to US$.78 April/May so I purchased items in US$ as that is currency they are solds in. I waited many months for that price. Need to purchase more but the AU$ from the end April highs of US$.78 has dropped straight down to US$.72 area over May.
As for price action the breaking of US$.76 in most of April now looks like a distant memory through May and the start of June.
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Valued Member
United States
287 Posts |
I wrote this somewhere else today. So thought I would copy it here.
June 1, 2016 Charting $Silver 101
Go to "stockcharts" Chose: $silver Daily candlesticks, clear the moving averages It is easier to use a larger chart like the 780 ans add 15 extra bars Chose the line tool Start at the January 13 low Draw the line all the way to the right hand side of the chart so that the middle touches the April 1st and 2nd low. (Cutting a little of the tail off of the bottom of the March 31 candle makes the line fit better) Daily closes above this line is critical to it being support. Draw another line from Feb1 bottom all the way right so it touches the Feb 27 low. (The first week of April ends up below this line) Draw a line from the Feb 27 low all the way right, just touching the April 4, low.
Next: Chose Fibonacci Retracement tool. (horizontal lines) Start at the Dec. 14 low Pull it all the way to the right and up so the top of the tool touches the May 1 high. (It fits the cart al little better if you cut those tails off too. I like $17.91 better than $18.04)
You should now see 3 levels of support, one broken, one being tested, and a third still lower.
"For Entertainment Purposes Only" *tm The Lorax Free for anyone to copy
Edited by edthelorax 06/02/2016 01:24 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Thanks for the post, Ed.
Where do you see silver headed based on this data? Buy, sell, hold?
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Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
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Valued Member
United States
287 Posts |
Montana, you asked "Where do you see silver headed based on this data? Buy, sell, hold?" Being a daily chart, the data can only help us with the next few weeks. The longer term charts all say buy to me. Based on this chart I would say there is a %40 chance this support ($16 ish) holds Another %40 that the next one holds ($15.25 area) That leaves %20 chance of breaking below $15.10 (or so) I bought silver stocks at this level, plan on buying more if silver hits %15.30. A close above $16.55 would be needed to call this as a near term bottom. The next couple of days will be crucial to PM's and the SM. "for Entertainment Purposes Only" Ed
Edited by edthelorax 06/02/2016 10:13 am
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Valued Member
United States
287 Posts |
Gothic, I really like the long-term charts. On the BGMI weekly, if you draw a trendline across the bottoms 1942 -1962 you can see BGMI came down and touched the trendline in January. AMAZING!! 55 years later. On the 10yr daily,It seems that buying when the SMA10 (red line) crosses above the SMA 25 (blue line) and selling when they cross back over would make profiting simple. As long as the price is above the red and the red is above the blue the up-trend will continue. Thank You, great charts. Ed
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Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
Yeah Ed--LT charts put things in perspective and "encourage" one to look past all the rhetoric. Your point about the trendline being touched is spot on. I look for it to be at least tested again, but have no special insight.
I am a long time investor in BGEIX and remember the zigs and zags there in 1999 very well--and the fact that we didn't bottom until late 2000. That was AFTER around 20 years in the wilderness. This time might be different and world financial conditions might be precarious, but bankstas have a way of awarding themselves mulligans--well at least til they can't and who knows when that will be?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
We seem to be in a similar phase of pricing with gold to December 2015, right before the Fed Rate Hike..I believe the low of 1050 was in mid-December. We all know what happened next. It did take a bit for the miners to swing into the game. Most large Investment firms missed this period. I'm am sure much remorse, as literally billions in profits could have been had with their capitol. A lot eventually did get in, like Fidelity(I do not know what specific equities they have now, either ETF's of individual miners), which started the wave of buyers behind us who were in, jacking prices up. My hunch is a violent swift swing back up is near. Since I am long on miners, I don't sweat the day to day noise. I did read the CEO of First Majestic, Keither Neuemyer, told a reporter that some Tech companies approached him to buy silver direct. Neumyer was stunned, and said this was a first, in 14 years for his reign. Suggesting supply issues, this little tidbit of news is interesting. I read Neumyer at a mining conference last year wanted 30 of his cohorts in the industry to boycott mining for the month of June...to send a message to the buyers/traders/exchanges that manipulation must end. Nobody in the room liked the idea, having too many bills to pay, they chickened out. I've read the selling side is quite complicated, way beyond anything I'll ever grasp. So, if shortages are coming into play, a good thing. Supply-Demand. Simple.
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Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
http://bullionbullscanada.com/index...-what-s-nextIke, I found the linked article interesting and as I was averaging in to miners for a long while ( to our fearless leader's consternation), I do say thank gods for "fake rallies." Interesting comments about silver there.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Ed,
Thanks for the response. I like how you presented it in terms of percentages. Your comments are similar to the igoldadvisor, Aaron. He just posted another great YouTube video yesterday.
I hope long term, you are both correct. I don't mind lower prices for buying physical. I currently have to buy under about $16.30 not to increase my average spot buys. Over that it's hard to justify as I hate raising average.
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Valued Member
United States
287 Posts |
Montana, I just started writing in the percentage format because when I would say "could" or "should" or "may" some people took that to mean "will" Cost averaging down is great, cost averaging up, just means you were right the first time. I hold some physical for fun and safety. I buy stocks to make money. I do not have physical for a doomsday scenario as I have tried to sell eagles for $10 at Yellowstone a few tears ago. Those people weren't hungry and it was hard to find someone to "trade" and eagle for ten bucks. I feel the best way is to spend the same every month, sometimes you get more sometimes less. That is what accumulating is all about. JMO Ed
Ed
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Valued Member
United States
287 Posts |
June 2, 2016 charting $silver 102
Choose your favorite stockcharts.
$Silver, Weekly, 5 years, candlesticks, size 780 no moving averages, it's easier to see what we are doing. Annotate, I use the OLD 'cause well, I'm a defiant YOUNG
The horizontal line tool helps find future support and resistance, based on past support/resistance. I move the line to "best fit" often ignoring extreme data, cutting "tails" off of the candlesticks.
Chose the horizontal line tool. Starting at the bottom of the chart we will place the first line so it touches the weekly highs around Dec'15. and the weekly highs on either side of that. ($14.50) Prefect example of how support becomes resistance and then support again. Next put one at ($19.75) See how the chart "sits" on the line dangling it's feet. It tried to find support there one last time in Aug'14 before continuing on down. That spot is why I like the line there instead of ($19.20) The next one up Is easy to find the right fit. The candlesticks look like a ball bouncing on a table then off the edge.($27.75) Let's stick one up at ($35) It catches a bottom in '11 and tops in '12 Now it should look like something is missing. let's fill in that space with one that touches the summer '13 highs. Much better.
Except there is one line, the most important one missing. Change color to Green and make it fit the chart in the 2015 time. This is the most important line to me because it let's us know what to watch and how Silver handles this line will give us strong clues about the strength of the underling commodity.
Now choose the selection tool (arrow) and by clicking on any line make adjustments so you like the" fit" of the lines.
If any can tell me exactly what price I put the green line, They win bragging rights for the weekend.
"For Entertainment Purposes Only" *tm The Lorax
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 460,949 |