What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

But watch out Ed :)

http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php...a_chart_room

Nice jump in silver so far this morning. Was driving home watching the price of silver on the foreign markets, just to get idea of how the day might go. It had been hovering around .10 up all night, then BOOM, looked and its up like .40/oz. YES! My miners are shining; GREEN :-)

LikesIkes,
You said: "We seem to be in a similar phase of pricing with gold to December 2015, right before the Fed Rate Hike..I believe the low of 1050 was in mid-December. We all know what happened next."

I noticed the same thing last night, and did not realize it was your idea until I re-read your post this morning. I believe you are right. Especially because of all the stories relating a hike to the gold weakness. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Nice call about the silver price jump. If the pattern now rhymes with Dec. then I would look for the next few days to drift down into the meeting.

JM not so Humble Opinion
Ed

Hazelwood<< Hehehe!!

@zack

dont worry about what the market is doing today. Its fine. Plenty of areas are up big right now, the indices generally do not tell us whats really happening.

One of the bigger areas of the market being hit right now is/are the Fins, hence why the selling. However, other areas that were trending months again, at 52 highs, are at it once again. Think of rotation, now going back to assets that were being dumped a few weeks back.

thats the type of market we are and have been. However, as I have told you and others forever, your job is to hold your miners and stick with the trend. Miners and PMs breaking the 4+ year downtrend was a big deal and its not going to just stop after starting. I know for the vast majority of the public that is a very hard concept to grasp but its really simple, it really is.

@yup
Just nice to see some action again with the miners. Not going to go anywhere with the miners, still holding the SILJ. Read an article about this ETF, that if silver hits $100/oz the SILJ could increase 1000%. Question for you, in your opinion is a 10x price increase feasible for it with silver at $100? If so, I may not jump from the miners into physical silver. May just leave my $ parked right here. The stock I'm eyeing I'm holding is the CCXI I just picked up (when it had hit a small jump of course). But learned my lesson with the CPXX and not being patient. Gut says it will do well. Thanks again for the recommendation on Livermores book. Got it read, digested, now just need to learn to follow what I learned. Jumping around has cost me!

@zack

With any silver miner or gold miner or related ETFs, it is hard to say exactly how high they will go in relation to the metal, thats really up to the market, how high it wants to push it.

So long as gold and silver keep pushing higher and stay high, all PM miners and ETFs will continue to move higher in general. I remember years back when oil was running higher and we saw the various oil stocks go higher, some ran even higher, if they were oil E & P stocks, they shot higher than say your regular oil Majors like XOM.

So its possible that some ETFs do run higher than individual mining stocks and vice a versa. 10 times as much? That I dont know. The market will however price in premiums according to what it seems fit.

Remember too that as we go along with this phase and trend in gold and silver that the market is going to ferret out which are the strongest mining stocks, which are the ones with the best growth etc. It will separate which are the weak ones and which are the best positioned ones to catch a fair amount of this uptrend as it moves along.

The easiest and simplest way to figure this out is to pay attention to which stocks make up your ETF, find out when they have their ERs and just watch price. When they report, if the stock tanks, and continues to drift lower or lags the overall industry group, you know that mining stock is a dud and one to just pass over and look for those that pop on their ER. Those are the true leaders of the industry group and will drift higher.

To give you an example, let us circle back to gold miners GOLD and FNV. GOLD had a crappy ER report. Take a look today at its reaction. Sure it bounced but its lagging from its yearly highs. Conversely, look at FNV, which reported a good ER, they are a stone's throw away from their 52 highs. FNV is an example of a strong gold mining stock, one of the leaders of the industry group. There are other gold mining stocks exhibiting this pattern right now. The same will apply to silver miners.

Like I been saying, for now, price action says we will see gold and silver miners bouncing around in this range. Take your SILJ as an example. Since late April its been trading in a range, with a few attempts at making making fresh yearly highs. With the bounce today (which should be ZERO surprise as that 11.50ish area has served as the lower end of the range for weeks now) you are seeing it moving into the higher end of the range.

Again, your job, Zach, is to hold on until this trend is done. Silver and gold are in up trends and it will take time for this trend to die. In between, because of the overhead resistance and because gold and silver are commodities, you are going to see some pretty sharp moves that are going to cloud you are mind, especially since you along with the vast majority of the public, are not used to such patterns nor know if its a real decline or not.

Just keep repeating to yourself- we are in an uptrend. Everything else is noise and you dont need any reasons why the pull backs happen in this uptrend. Just focus on the uptrend.

Date Price % Gain Date
2009-09-02 14.37 9.14%
1998-09-04 3.37 9.26% 1998-10-05 4.29 27.55% 1998-12-04 3.61 7.13%
2008-12-10 9.29 9.64%
2016-06-03 10.49 9.73%
2000-02-04 3.34 9.96% 2000-03-06 3.04 -9.06% 2000-05-04 3.00 -1.30%
2008-09-12 10.39 10.18%
2008-11-13 7.42 12.02%
2008-10-28 6.22 12.83%
2008-10-29 7.04 13.25%
2008-11-04 8.16 13.78%
2008-10-08 10.38 13.93%
1999-09-27 4.35 19.21% 1999-10-27 3.64 -16.27% 1999-12-27 3.48 -4.56%
2008-11-21 7.64 24.47%

BGEIX is a miners mutual fund that has been around since 1988. Above are all the times we have seen daily 9% or better gains for it in its history (dividend adjusted). Nine of those gains were in the extremely volatile 2008-09 period. Results for the other 3 besides our current big increase are shown 1 month and three months out from the increase date. We'll probably start seeing mind bending volatility, if this is a true bull, or we've seen a rousing bear market rally. Time will tell.