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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,792 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Quote: ...Gold is much more likely to rise at least $500 than drop $500 from current levels, imo... Agree 100% but also think gold will fall some more in the next year or two. I'm guesstimating a bottom ~$900 for gold this cycle. Equities have a while to run with the current atmosphere and a relatively strong USD will keep gold in check in the short run (barring a black swan event of course).
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Valued Member
United States
160 Posts |
BH1964, I would welcome the opportunity to buy more gold at $900, I just don't think it will go that low unless there is some major event as a catalyst, I just can't picture it grinding slowly down to that level without sufficient reason. More pro's than con's imo for gold going higher. But who knows, you may end up being correct.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts |
I am still puzzled by the so called uptrend line. When I look at a 1 or 3 year chart I don't see it. However, I see what is called a death cross on the technical charts from a few days ago where the 50 day goes below the 200 day MA and is not a good signal going forward for a while.
This will take a while to work it's self out. Best to all.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
just hang in there...new bottom is good...it means next run up better than ever. Inaugural day may gown in history as the beginning of a new civil war...the nutbars are heading to Washington to make a huge disruption---great for gold..not so good when a national guardsman is comin at ya. Patience, our day is close...you've waited all this time, so, 60 days will go by fast.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1134 Posts |
 With ilikeike and others sentiment on buying and not selling this dip. Is why the lower it goes the more I'm a buyer... Going tomorrow to a show and my LCS to buy more physical bullion.. Come January we're going to be in for a Wild ride, that's putting it mildly. God help us. I'm going to Buy the dips and Sell the pops. ***Edited*** to add that I also do not see or believe in this so called "uptrend" people speak of.. Looking at silver; I do not see it in the 30 day 60 day 6 month 1 yr or even 5 yr charts... What I do see is this big "hump" we've gone over in the past year that IMHO does not indicate any long term uptrend.. What the historical chart is telling me is that we can potentially move only slightly lower or much higher..
Edited by Harry213 11/25/2016 9:59 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Quote: BH1964, I would welcome the opportunity to buy more gold at $900, I just don't think it will go that low unless there is some major event as a catalyst, I just can't picture it grinding slowly down to that level without sufficient reason..... I hope you're right but also think gold could slowly grind down under $1000 over the next two years IMO.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Selling Crystal Balls, "Stop Guessing Market Tops Now!"..see my new website: http://www.KrystalBallz.org....(due to the State of California sellers code, I am forced to list who made the balls..let me look..there..there's a small label...getting my loupe out...squinting...."Made in China, by Uri Geller., LLC"...I'll be darned..never bothered to look before...NO wonder 3 of the balls are bent.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
looks like a ton of angst on the thread here with the continued range breaks lower from last week.
I think you can all see why in October I decided to cut and move on. There is a time where, even with a trend, you must decide whether its worth the hassle or not, whether its going to be a nice runner or full of turbulence. There are a lot of prettier up trends right now than what gold and silver offer.
Going forward, the next set of prices to watch are-
Gold- a break of 1170.30 gets gold even lower
Silver- a break of 16.15 gets silver even lower
Just a reminder, both metals are still in up trends even with their respective pull backs and are still up for the year.
2016 has not been an easy year for trend followers. If I have time, I'd like to put up several commodity charts. If you look at them, whether it be coffee, soybeans, cotton, sugar to name a few, if you look at them at over a full year, they all have given back gains. Its been a year of pulling back and a lot of chop within the trend.
I'll also repeat that gold and silver are reminding me of previous patterns where an asset hits a 52 high, then proceeds to pull in with deep pull backs and eventually ends up where it started.
This is how markets are and your real guide, as always, is the price action.
If you find yourself under water, its time to assess how much of a loss you want to take and whether its really worth holding. Remember, its OK to be wrong, but to remain wrong is not ok.
As we progress here, we will be wanting to see at what level do silver and gold turn around. So far we havent see any sort of range hold. We also should be watching the yearly lows. That would, again, be complete confirmation, without a doubt that again the trend has changed.
They are still ways away but we want to watch these things closely, while not jumping to any sort of conclusions. Allow the price to do the talking.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Gold, 1170s has broken..
Silver, keeps dripping closer to 16.15
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Dont have time right now for posting any charts but while everyone is worried, confused and cant see the uptrend in the PMs, several gold and silver miners are trying on shorter time frames to make bases and move out of them higher.
Many, if not most mining stocks are in up trends despite the slide in gold and silver, if you cant spot the uptrend then you probably have zero business in buying gold/silver, let alone PM mining stocks.
Some of the better looking mining stocks are:
HL RGLD ABX
as an additional name, if you are looking to play the rise in palladium, take a look at SWC, very beautiful price action, up trend and less than 20 cents away from its 52 high.
I can clearly see everyone on here has had their confidence shaken, plenty of folks are ready to deny the up trend, some are too blind to see it and others are certain PMs are going lower too very silly levels, which is pretty much what I expect from the public.
The PMs have been in a pretty ugly up trend, which, trends dont all have to be pretty and smooth. Its good to see tho, the negative sentiment and people talking nonsense, its absolutely hilarious and makes me chuckle.
Its clear that a ton of time is needed for this trend to sort things out. Nevertheless, until we fully see gold and silver break down, we cannot rush out and place judgement, denying the up trend that exists in gold and silver.
Rather, it is better to address each level, level by level, paying attention to price. One lesson I learned early on and live by is to allow price to do its thing, least you be surprised and wrong footed by acting before price confirms anything.
At the end of the day, it will be the price action which will tell us when this uptrend is finally done and not worthless opinions.
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Valued Member
Malaysia
121 Posts |
I am having quite a comfortable yet opportunities lost here when my local currency is depreciate terribly againat USD. Can't seize the spot dropping opportunity here to stack more oz.
But at least the current stacks protect my current assets.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
Quote: ...price action which will tell us when this uptrend is finally done and not worthless opinions.  The efficiency of PM directional guesses are not much different in value or accuracy, for example, conceptually compared to the countless media viewpoints expressed as late as 24 hours before the final POTUS election results posted. 95 % of them ended up in left field DOA: even the predictions originating from the supposed experts. IMO one should just follow his/her own 'educated' gut instincts to generate a better feeling and attitude about the entire self-derived decision making process, no matter what the end result turns out to be.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
a couple of things-
another miner I meant to add to the list last night that looks good price wise is PAAS. I want to also mention I have zero positions in these stocks, I havent touched anything gold and silver since I bailed in October and am running positions in various other up trends that are not related at all to the PMs.
Gold breaking down again, making another low breaking the previous week low of 1162.20, roughly 100 dollars now separates gold from its yearly low. Its interesting to see silver not breaking its low of 16.15 yet... so we have a divergence between the two metals for now.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2843 Posts |
I'd like to cordially welcome $17 back to the silver market.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Do stocks, gold, and silver usually move up at the same time. This is happening as we speak. I am telling my brother to take profits in his stocks since he has big profits in S&P 500. Buy low, sell high is the rule. When assets hit record highs it is wise to take some profits. You have to pay the tax but you get to keep most of it. If market crashes and, God only knows this, you can lose all the profits and more. I went through 1987 crash, Internet Stock crash in early 2000's and recent crash in 2008-9. I always stuck it out, but now I am retired and taking profits is not a crime. I have taken 6 figure profits in last three years and I am still up.
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,792 |