Speculation And RCM Coins What Do The Members Think

It's very hard to make a profit out of re selling NCLT, that has been acquired as new product from the Mint or their selling agents.
All of the potential profit has been absorbed into the Mint's original selling price. Perhaps not surprising. After all, they are trying to get the highest profit as they should do for their stakeholders, which for most National Mints, means the taxpayer.

In the aftermarket some NCLT products can rise in price, but it is almost impossible to pick which ones.

If you like NCLT buy it, but don't expect to make a profit by re selling later in the aftermarket. I have to admit, most NCLT is manufactured to a very high standard. It has to be.

I am NOT a fan of artificially contrived rarities. Unfortunately that is the way some NCLT products are promoted and marketed by the Mints or their agents.

A while back someone posted that there was 81 coins/sets released in 2013 and 136 coins/sets in 2012. Out of the more than 217 releases I think there were about 12-15 coins/sets that appreciated in value. The rest could be had for list or lower than list price. So that means less than 10% of coins released during the last 2 years went up in value.

I think people overestimate the value of their coin collection. Sure you may have a handful of coins that are valuable but you are saddled with less popular coins too. If you bring your coin collection to the dealer you are not going to get market value. He will have to discount the price to take the coin duds.

Now the question of leaving your coin collection to your children. They may have no interest in them. So they have to sell them, then we have the problem with dealers as described above. They may only give a fraction of what the coins are worth. Look at estate sales, coins and other collectibles sell for very low prices.

NCLT coins are mass produced collectibles. Anything that is mass produced will not be valauble in the long run. The sports cards bubble bursted as did the Beanie Baby craze.

Collecting coins is a hobby. What other 'hobbies' do people expect to make a profit doing? Lets check out a few others:

Golf? Nope, excessive greens fees, membership fees, bar-tabs etc etc - return on investment? In the hole (pun intended) - possibly thousands of dollars a year, and NOTHING to be left to your children.

Boating? a common phrase associated with boating "A hole in the water, into which one pours money". Initial purchase of a boat, Marina dockage, dry-dock storage, moorage, sometimes parking, yacht club membership, boat repairs/maintenance - ROI? In the hole - possibly thousands of dollars a year, and a boat (+ expenses) to be left to your children.

Now, stocks and bonds are investments - you are gambling that your choice of stock will go up in value - Same could be said for horse racing. - End of the day - you are gambling - it could be a winner, looser, or break even. Some call this a hobby, others call it investments, but any way you look at it, it's gambling. For you kids? could be a lot, could be a debt, could be nothing at all.

Stamp collecting, With rarity, and interest, some stamps could rise in value to sky-rocket prices - if you compare the comment above of calculating a percent that appreciate, compared to the numbers of stamps offered every year, it would be in the fractions of 1% that may have any possibility of appreciation. Intrinsically, they are worthless. Reduced to ashes from a careless smoker, and your entire collection is gone - forever. Your kids may or may not enjoy looking at a life's collection of stamp size portraits/paintings.

Now, coin collecting.... if you stick your money into NCLT coins you may win or loose some value - as the interest in a particular coin varies from month to month, year to year. In the end however, you will be left with, at the very least, the intrinsic value of the metal that coins contain. Reduced to a molten blob from a house fire, god forbid, you remain with the intrinsic value. This to can fluctuate month to month, year to year. However, historically, as the price of the metal fluctuates. so does inflation, and you will more or less forever be able to buy the same number of loaves of bread with that amount of metal (bread symbolizing a staple that will forever be required to sustain a person - similar to the draught beer principal vs minimum wage, but that's another story.)Your kids may or may not enjoy your collection, but there will be something there for them to enjoy.

We won't discuss beanie babies, and sports cards - they are just following the Tulip craze of the 1600's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)

WOW! Lots of interesting discussion here!

For me collecting is a hobby for my own personal enjoyment.

Investment considerations are secondary and I would be happy to break even if I ever sell.

Buying coins or any collectible for that matter as investment would be considered speculative investment.

Investing in GIC's, stocks and bonds ensures that there is some return. Of course not all stocks and bonds are created equal and there are speculative stocks and bonds that are similar to NCLT coins.

If you were to talk to an investment advisor and if you were to do asset allocation for your investment then coins and collectibles would at best be considered as discretionary investments. Anyone who is buying them as a major portion of their portfolio is taking undue risk.

There are other risks with investing in collectibles and the two major ones are the buy and sell spreads (even for bullion) and the lack of liquidity.

I collect because I enjoy the things I collect. I have stories around them, I read about them, I share my passion with others about them. To me spending money on collection is the same as spending money on a vacation or gadget or something else that makes memories. If I can get that from my collection I have had good return on my "investment"


I can assure you that if my goal is to make money there are better and less riskier ways to invest. As an example anyone who invested in Royal Bank stock in about late 1990's has had their money at least tripled and in the meantime they have had a steady income of at least about 3% a year.

Tell me of an investment in a coin or an NCLT that has done it on a consistent basis?

Nice thoughts and conversations.

Thanks to RCM for not initiating "December" release.
There is a time to get and enjoy coins from previous releases....

@pocket change-

thank you for your warm welcome to the Canadian forum, I appreciate it.

Well, I know everyone is saying it cant be done....that is spotting coins that sell out and increase in value.

I do feel, tho that coins that sell out, carry over to ebay and continue to stay higher than the original list are the coins you want to buy. While silver and gold prices will impact these type coins, as soon as price stabilize in the PMs, I feel, based on price action, these coins will recover their losses.

Now, there are some occasions where a coins really drops in price at ebay,,, but I dont see that happening frequently.

Right now I think its hard to really get a grip on what happens to prices tho, until PM prices find a floor, coins are going to bounce around in price.

However, I do feel the simple strategy is-

1- like anything, use price as your main guide

2- coins that fall in price, stay away

3- coins that sell out from the mint are a starting point for speculation

4- stalk and be patient. ebay is the best source for such items. When you find an auction for a hot coin, get involved, chances are good you can buy in lower.

I might also add that many other coins, have held their prices... that is they soared to highs from their issue price, as the price of silver came down, the prices cooled.. yet at this exact moment, many of these coins, because of their price appreciation, are still above their initial price offering, there was plenty of cushion. So it can be done successfully.

What this hobby sorely needs is a database and charting of prices. I guarantee you that over time, coin prices will come and go. I also am sure that coins that were sell outs and were high priced, will come back to those prices again.

Again, what really throws things off is the current environment of dropping silver and gold prices. Once those stabilize or find a floor, it will be much easier to spot trends.

To me, coin speculating is pure fun, I dont need to make my income from that. However, in enjoying this hobby, I am spotting trends and patterns over and over. The biggest part of this is being patient and observing. As a trader of stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and other financial assets, spotting trends and patterns just comes naturally.

So long as you guide yourself by price, thats a great starting point. Everything else will fall in line. Lastly, I enjoy the challenge of it. One thing I notice is everyone is saying basically ... "it cant be done and its too hard and etc etc". It is EXACTLY this type of sentiment that emboldens me even more and I enjoy the challenge.

You answered your question in your own post.

You can't crank out thousands of tacky objects and expect the price to rise.

Same theory as with bobble-head dolls, beanie babies or 1990's hockey cards.

If it's sold as a "collectible", it will never become one.