Speculation And RCM Coins What Do The Members Think

Yes, that is why I am saying the first starting point for identify coins with potential should be what sells out at the RCM mint.

Then after that has been identify, carry over to the secondary market. What dealers are carrying this coin. A major source for finding price is ebay. That will verify or confirm if that sell out is bona fide and whether the market will keep that price higher.

In my travels and observations, these coins that sell out at the mint and then move on to the secondary market are holding their value. Sure, there are few where the price was way lower on a bid, but those are one offs.

There has to be a way to filter out all the massive amount of coins which IMO are junk and not worth it at all. I dont mean to sound mean but a ton of RCM coins, and other mints are just not worth it.

So again my process is

1- use sell outs to filter out coins to zero in

2- follow those on secondary markets

3-filter out those who fail on the secondary markets such as ebay or dealers

those who keep their prices constant are the ones that are worth bidding on and or buying higher to sell higher.

One will also have to keep track of at which point price begins to top out, that is where buyers reach a point of exhaustion.

This is going to be a lot of hard work and patience. But there is a way to game the system and I have already observed how it can be done

See, there has to be a process of elimination. A sell out, followed by price appreciation are all signs of a coin that has potential. How it acts on the secondary market finally filters out what kind of supply and demand is out there.

To me the only drawback I see is that PM prices have not reached a floor yet.

Finally, this same pattern works across the board in other mints. The Dr Who silver coin is a perfect example. The Perth Mint sold out. The coin depending on how you buy it from in the secondary market is 30-40 dollars higher. Currents bids on ebay support this price, and this despite the fact that the New Zealand mint still carries them... at a price similar to the secondary market.

So, again let me repeat myself- PRICE is above all the most important thing. Doesn't matter if a coin sells in what amount of time, doesn't matter that it HAS to sell out everywhere. The point of sell outs is to filter out and identify coins with potential, because most the coins out there are a waste of time.

Funny enough, in my line of work, trading stocks, this is the same thing. There is a million stocks you can trade. But only a handful, a small universe, are worth buying and speculating on. These form your core until they stop working. The same thing exists with coins.

What we need is a web site that tracks all coins, all their prices from their initial release and to how they act on ebay. Once we get enough data in price, we can speculate as to what areas are worth buying at for a coin, when to dump a coin, or for the bargain hunters, whats a steal of a deal.

We had someone on here doing this and then their posts disappeared or they stopped posting charts. So it can be done and I am working on it as we speak. I just dot have time to devote to it full time because of my heavy duties at work.

The 5 coin Penny Set and the Venetian Glass Lady Bug coin are other examples where demand outstripped supply. When that happens the value goes up and is maintained.

@Pocket

You know I haven't really looked, tho it appears that several coins I bought during the years, such as the colored and gilded 2013 elephants did very well, I won those at auction, and the night and day set are ahead of my pre-order. Mind you, my entire elephant collection is not speculation but my personal collection. In fact, I have OVER PAID on several of these sets,,,, solely because I don't care, I am collecting the series because I just love the coins and the animal. That said, the Somalian elephant series, for now, is a coin that is trending and running higher. I would expect at some point, as them become popular, for their prices to cool down.

I have been staying away from buying any 2014s as I wait to see if we get a flush in gold and silver or more chop. On a flush, I think I will snag a graded or ungraded 2014 elephant. These are just so beautiful and deal. Then I would pounce on a silver. But I am waiting on these. I might add, the 2013 silver proof elephant seems to been a dud, which I dont mind as I am not speculating, but that sort of price action where a coin drops in price, I am not interested in that sort of action.

Yes, that series, I did notice it but hadnt put it on the list. I believe you are talking about that Canadian wildlife and then they issue some colored by a german company. Thats the sort of pieces that also would fall under speculation. You see the prices go higher and hold. That tells you a lot about the demand for the coin.

Right now theres really only a handful of coins that meet my criteria for speculating from the RCM mint, they are as follows-

2013 Ducks Unlimited Mallard silver coin

2013 Arctic Fox silver coin

2013 silver maple leaf 25th piedfort

2013 25th anniversary gold plated maple leaf

this is just a small sample, I havent looked at all the RCM coins yet. I know those out there will jump and that last and tell me why its wrong but I know the exact reasons why I have selected these, I know what I am doing.

I also think part of the success to this is, once you identify whats sold out,,, and whats held its price in the secondary market, you look for auctions for you might be able to scoop up the coin lower than the average going price. This will be a rare event but its worth the time and patience.

You know I have really been leaning in this direction as well, getting the coins from the mint, and then getting them graded. Theres clear demand for graded coins and its not going away, it pushes the price up and again, the public will drop money on these coins. So yes, I think if you are speculating, grading coins is something to consider.

This whole thing with fake coins is VERY bad and I think will force more people into graded coins. The fakes are very good and they are getting into everything. The days of just buying are over,,,, you must be from a place you know has a good rep and trust. It might even discourage collectors.... which would be a bad thing....


I wanted to address PAisa's comment. Perhaps I didnt make myself clear. So again I will turn to my line of work in trading. I believe in the adage, "buy high, sell higher" and as was once said by a great trader, Jesse Livermore that "no stock was too high to buy and no stock was to low to sell."

The public is always told to buy low and sell high. Well, that really isn't the way its done, as you first must KNOW which stocks are bargain. Rather, what is done in the markets is as a stock reaches a yearly high, buyers step in and keep buying it, pushing it higher. I do this all the time with various assets. It works. Why? Because price, as it rises is telling us that investors and speculators alike WANT this asset, or this stock.

The same happens with coins over and over. Now I can see a lot of folks reading this saying, "oh please give me a break, thats a sure way to get stuck holding the bag". So, I am not saying, go out and buy a coin thats already high. Rather, I am saying, that once you have identified the original price point for a coin, and it sells out at the mint and you have referenced a strong secondary market, thats your confirmation that prices are rising and will rise.

Again, I have spent over a year now observing a wide range of coins from private and goverment mints and this same pattern has played out. A coin is issued at 76. It sells out from dealers. The coins appear on ebay, every auction starts to rise. In one case, I watched one coin from a german mint go from around 70 and rise to 200. It has since fallen back down around 150, which happened just as prices of silver dropped. However, if you had bought this coin even say 80 or 90 as it rose, you STILL have 70+ points of cushion. Furthermore, after gold and silver stablize, I feel these type coins will once again regain their prices.

This same pattern has exhibted itself over and over and over in various coins. It will show up in RCM coins.

So to Paisa, I disagree with the notion that price appreciation begins at the beginning. Just as when I buy a stock that triggers a yearly high goes higher, I have seen coins that were already high, make new fresh highs and go higher. Furthermore, I do not waste anytime in deciding what goes higher. Thats why I let the sell outs occur at the mint, then I start tracking prices on the secondary market on ebay. Once you have enough data on hand, patterns in price emerge and you can see prices either rising or going down. Simple.

Now I realize this may be over the heads of a lot of folks but price is the ulimate guide in many tings in life and the same patterns I work with in stocks, bonds, currencies, etc, I see that in coins.

Finally, yes I agree, we should start a thread on what coins are appreciating in value. If only that one person that was posting data from ebay was around, that would be a major help, I would be willing to collaborate with them and make us a guide, real time so we could chart out coins. Everyone would benefit.

@Libertad

Yes I agree with you 100%, and yes going on ebay you will have to have a dealer or sellers with a good reputation. In fact I do think that this is going to damage the hobby, it will drive people away.

I was aghast when I saw all the fakes at the one site alibaba that you mention. There is NOTHING they arent faking. I mean from RCM, The Royal Mint in the UK, to even the low end clad coins they are faking.

And yes, thats an excellent point. Being into Star Wars collecting, fakes do get into the hobby and you just cant purchase your Star Wars from anyone, NOT EVEN the graded ones from the grading agencies because they have passed and graded FAKED items.

So yes, this is an area of caution and needs to be stressed, you need a reputable, reliable source you can trust.

If you want to make money, get some Mcdonald stocks ;) People will surely heat burgers for the next 25 years :) At almost 100$ the stock price, it's like geting a 1 oz NCLT coins, but you receive dividends each years for the rest of your life :) BTW, I do not own Mcdonald stocks, but it's just an easy exemple to do easy money with low risk...

@Kuh

Yes, I seen that myself. I think based on observation also, some coins that sell well also suffer from periodic dips in their price and then continue higher or steady out. I think part of that issue is because we have PM prices that are still dropping. Once the ends or gets stable, price will come back and in some cases it appears they are already in some coins.

All in all, I like my method thus far in speculating on coins, whether RCM or other mints, private or government. Its fun to say the least.

I think again the ultimate guide to this is price. If the price continues to rise or holds up, it tells you a coin has long term value and standing power.

@yup7676,

Only small fraction of NCLT ever appreciate in value. Of the hundreds and hundreds of NCLT released in the last 20 years, how many actually appreciate in value? Everyone lists the same 10-20 coins/sets that have done very well but they represent less than 2% of the total.

Another thing is liquidity of investments. It is much easier to sell your stocks and bonds than NCLT products. While you can sell your entire collection to a dealer, he will have to discount the value because he would have to take the good as well as the bad coins. You sell them one a time on ebay but this takes time and effort. And you may have coins that no one wants.

And don't equate catalog value of the coins with the actual price you can sell them for. Catalog prices only provide guidelines of what coins are worth. They are rarely equivalent since the price you end up with is what the buyer is willing to pay for it.