Commems Collection Classic: Commemorative Price Comparison - 1940 V 2015

I was looking through an issue of the ANA's The Numismatist from May 1940 and came across an ad from Hollinbeck Stamp & Coin Stores. The ad featured a nice selection of uncirculated US commemoratives.

I thought it would be interesting to compare prices from 75 years ago with today's prices on a few issues (assuming an MS-60 grade for 2015 prices):

Issue Name          1940 Price      Adjusted(1)   2015 Price(2)   Change(3) 
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1892 Columbian           $0.95          $15.85         ~$25.00         58%
1915 Pan-Pac            $11.85         $197.40        ~$465.00        136%
1921 Missouri 2x4       $19.50         $324.80         ~640.00         97%
1927 Vermont             $1.95          $32.50        ~$250.00        669%
1935 Hudson              $5.75          $95.80        ~$750.00        683%
1936 York                $1.25          $20.80        ~$190.00        813%
1937 Texas P-D-S Set     $4.35          $72.45        ~$400.00        452%

(1) 1940 Price in 2015 Dollars (i.e., Adjusted for Inflation)
(2) Pricing is typical
(3) Percent 2015 Price Is Above 1940 Adjusted Price

Clearly, all of the coins show an appreciation in price beyond what is a result of just inflation.

As would be expected, the very common Columbian Exposition coins have appreciated the least. The price of one of the keys to the Type Set, the 1935 Hudson, on the other hand showed a nice jump of ~669%.

I was a bit surprised by the relatively small "real" increase for the 1915 Pan Pac and 1921 Missouri 2x4 half dollars; I would have expected both of these issues to have performed better considering the current market for them. Of course, if I had used 2015 prices for higher grade coins (e.g., MS-63 or MS-65), the differences would have been much larger and more in line with my expectations.

The relatively common 1936 York was another surprise. Its 813% increase was unexpected considering its current widespread availability today in all uncirculated grades.

Bottom line, a collection of US commemoratives assembled in 1940 would offer its owner a "real" increase in value beyond inflation if sold today, but would not have performed as well as some other series. For example, the same ad had a 1921 Peace dollar listed at $1.35. Today, that would translate to $22.50. With a current market price of about $300, the coin's selling price is 1,233% above it inflation adjusted price. If only I was around to have purchased a roll back in 1940!