Eleven
Supporting Members have participated in this contest. Eight have submitted three guesses, and three members have submitted one guess.
I created an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the scores. In doing so I realized that even if a member submits progressively better guesses, it is next to impossible for him or her to achieve a better score than a member who submits one guess. This result is due to the formula I created to calculate scores.
Upon reflection, I believe a
simple average leads to a more equitable contest. Consider the example I posted early for instance:
Quote:
Example: If the contest was: What was the last year of the Saint Gaudens $20 gold piece?
MEMBER 'A'
Initial Answer = 1939 = 6 points
Second Answer = 1937 = 6 points
Third Answer = 1933 = 0 points
TOTAL = 12 points
MEMBER 'B'
Initial Answer = 1935 = 2 points
Second Answer = 1932 = 1.5 points
Third Answer = 1934 = 2 points
TOTAL = 5.5 points
Thus, even though Member 'A' eventually got it exactly right, Member 'B' would still win.
(Note: If someone points out an aspect of this plan that is clearly unfair or unworkable, I will change it.)
Using the
simple average method, the results look like this:
Member 'A' average = 1936.33
Member 'B' average = 1933.67
Thus, Member 'B' would still win because his or her average score is much closer to the correct answer (1933) than Member 'A''s average guess.
I computed the results for our contest using both methods (
original formula vs.
simple average), as if the contest ended today. For the eight members who have submitted three guesses, the results are almost identical: First place through sixth place remain the same; the only change is that 7th and 8th place switch places.
For the three members who have submitted one guess so far, the results are quite different. Instead of being in the top five places, simply because they have made only one guess, they move down near the bottom. However, since they have not submitted a 2nd or 3rd guess yet, they have the opportunity to improve their results.
If I don't change the way the total score is calculated, then it would be easy for the 'one guessers' to win--they just don't guess again, whether they do so on purpose or because they haven't visited this thread since they submitted their guess and they remain at one guess on February 15th. Such a result would penalize those of you who have participated most actively, which doesn't seem right.
Therefore, unless someone offers a
cogent argument as to why this change is blatantly unfair, the winners will be chosen based on the average of their guesses.
Please feel free to ask any questions or offer suggestions. This contest has been good for me because, among other things, it forced me to learn how to use algebraic equations with Excel, and to think about differences in fairness between different scoring methods.
Thank you for reading this lengthy explanation.
Mark
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Posted 02/11/2017 12:51 am
