| Author |
Replies: 1,581 / Views: 148,678 |
|
|
|
Valued Member
United States
171 Posts |
So I got an invoice on Dec 26, but dated Dec 25 for my coin. Submitted under NGC Modern non-express service and has been in "Grading / Quality Control" stage since Dec. 11 and still waiting... Anyone know roughly how much longer?
|
|
Valued Member
United States
165 Posts |
Quote: been in "Grading / Quality Control" stage since Dec. 11 and still waiting... Anyone know roughly how much longer? Based on my experience with NGC, you need to call, send emails repeatedly to get your submission processed. Unfortunately, it appears that NGC acts like they are in the coin storage business, rather than the coin grading business. I say this because I was repeatedly told how "Large" and secure their vault is. Most banks require that Each Days receipt and disbursements be processed on the day received. There is no carryovers to the next day. NGC has designed their "process" to allow for apparently indefinite carryovers with no urgency to finish the process. NGC has a process that they use at the coin shows which allows them to provide same day service, because they do not have a Large vault at the shows. I understand that same day service is more expensive but that should be because staff and equipment need to be transported to and from the show. NGC also shows that they have graded more than 10 million ASE, so why haven't they mechanized the process? Surely with a database of 10 million graded coins there is enough data to teach a machine how to grade. I do not believe there are valid excuses for NGC disappointing processing as we approach 2020.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Invoice for grading usually is on or shortly before the coin is shipped. Means that the CC has been hit for the grading fees (obviously) but no clue why this took two weeks....usually is is a couple of days or less after it goes to "grading/QC"
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2815 Posts |
My status has changed to Encapsulation.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: NGC has a process that they use at the coin shows which allows them to provide same day service, because they do not have a Large vault at the shows. I understand that same day service is more expensive but that should be because staff and equipment need to be transported to and from the show. It's because of the amount of labor required for it. They can do it at shows because of the reduced volume with the higher fees. How much labor do you suppose it would take to process 10k coins a day in 24 hours or less? There is no world where submissions fees stay the same with that kind of service time. It's also questionable if you could even get enough qualified graders to pull that off. The speedy options are there for those that choose to pay for them.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
165 Posts |
[quote]There is no world where submissions fees stay the same with that kind of service time. It's also questionable if you could even get enough qualified graders to pull that off./quote]
That is why the High Volume Modern coins can use machine learning to grade and mechanize the entire process.
What other Company would process 10 Million of virtually the same coin and not mechanize the process today. None that survive.
Sure the specialty coins should be hand graded, but the high volume part of the "business" needs modernization. IMHO
|
|
Valued Member
United States
165 Posts |
[quote]My status has changed to Encapsulation./quote] Congratulations! Hope you get a PF70 or whatever else you were hoping for... 
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1913 Posts |
Quote: How much labor do you suppose it would take to process 10k coins a day in 24 hours or less? It would take the same amount of labor as it would to process 10k coins a month. The issue really isn't the amount of labor it takes to grade each coin. The issue is their labor capacity. They could in theory hire and train enough people to process 10k coins a day. However, in the non-peak times they wouldn't have the sales to pay them.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: That is why the High Volume Modern coins can use machine learning to grade and mechanize the entire process. Computer grading is a terrible way to go (won't even get into the whole why do we want computers to replace all humans part) as it has been tried before and failed. Why would you want a programmer to be in charge of grading? How many world class programmers are also professional graders? What happens when a glitch, bug, bad line of code, bad update, hack etc pumps out coins with grades that are to high? Are we just going to not guarantee anything at all anymore because some machine is doing it?
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
7276 Posts |
Quote: Computer grading is a terrible way to go (won't even get into the whole why do we want computers to replace all humans part) as it has been tried before and failed. Why would you want a programmer to be in charge of grading?
How many world class programmers are also professional graders? What happens when a glitch, bug, bad line of code, bad update, hack etc pumps out coins with grades that are to high? Are we just going to not guarantee anything at all anymore because some machine is doing it? Huh? We have computer programs that can take a spacecraft to the space station and then land the rocket back on a boat. We have computer programs that can pinpoint radiation to tumors with sub millimeter precision. I can tell Alexa to turn on my Roomba, clean the house, check my front door, turn on my lights and play music with my voice. BUT using machine learning to grade coins is not possible? This is one of the easiest things in the world. For a coin that more than one exist (which the majority are), you take a detailed laser measure of the "perfect" coin. You compare that coin to another coin and adjust grading based on number of defects. You can even improve the quality by running that coin through 3 separate instances and any outlier ratings cause the coin to be looked at by a human. You can even start with a simple code and have 3 different AI instances do learning. In the end they should all produce the same result using different coins and techniques. You want to get your coin remeasured, sure you can but it will always stay the same or grade lower as the act of taking the coin out of the slab can cause damage. Your grade won't be MS 66, it will be MS 66.3567 or what ever precision you want. You want a green sticker? Why, its meaning less your coin will measured against a perfect example it can only be as good as it was measured. Why won't this succeed? And the answer is that it removes the human from the check. Heck, anyone with access to a 3D scanner (about $500 for a good one, several $$$$ for one with micron precision) and the program can get their coin certified and rated. Within microseconds a program can kick out fakes. But then the TPG's wont serve a purpose as any coin can be independently certified as to actual rating. No TPG needed. TPG's will always state this won't work.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
7276 Posts |
Quote:Quote: My status has changed to Encapsulation./quote]" Each one of your quotes is missing the [ in /quote] The logic is '[ quote ]' the text '[ /quote ]' Just remove '' and the spaces
Edited by hfjacinto 12/27/2019 8:59 pm
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: We have computer programs that can take a spacecraft to the space station and then land the rocket back on a boat. We have computer programs that can pinpoint radiation to tumors with sub millimeter precision. So who will provide the billions of dollars that went into developing those abilities over decades and decades? Comparing NASA or medical radiology to coin grading isn't even close to reality unless you want to start paying 800+ for a coin grade, there won't be coin grading insurance to cover the cost either. Quote: I can tell Alexa to turn on my Roomba, clean the house, check my front door, turn on my lights and play music with my voice. BUT using machine learning to grade coins is not possible? Grading is far more complicated than any of those tasks. Might want to also look up how many home cameras have been hacked with strangers talking to kids etc. Quote: This is one of the easiest things in the world. Grading coins isn't even remotely close to one of the easiest things in the world. Anyone who thinks so I severely doubt their understanding of it. Quote: For a coin that more than one exist (which the majority are), you take a detailed laser measure of the "perfect" coin. Perfect doesn't exist in classic coins, nor business strike moderns. Quote: You compare that coin to another coin and adjust grading based on number of defects. You can even improve the quality by running that coin through 3 separate instances and any outlier ratings cause the coin to be looked at by a human. You can even start with a simple code and have 3 different AI instances do learning. In the end they should all produce the same result using different coins and techniques. You want to get your coin remeasured, sure you can but it will always stay the same or grade lower as the act of taking the coin out of the slab can cause damage. Your grade won't be MS 66, it will be MS 66.3567 or what ever precision you want. You want a green sticker? Why, its meaning less your coin will measured against a perfect example it can only be as good as it was measured.
See above. I could go on but people that think it's this simple generally greatly over estimate their grading abilities.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
587 Posts |
Quote: Grading is far more complicated than any of those tasks. But it's far simpler than facial recognition.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
7276 Posts |
Quote: So who will provide the billions of dollars that went into developing those abilities over decades and decades? Comparing NASA or medical radiology to coin grading isn't even close to reality unless you want to start paying 800+ for a coin grade, there won't be coin grading insurance to cover the cost either. You don't need to spend millions of dollars, if you know AI programming you can probably write the algorithm to learn how to do the machine coding in a few weeks. You would need to talk to a grader to discuss what causes a grade of MS 65 and a grade of MS 66. You tell the machine to learn the differences, than you refine the program by comparing its expected output to already graded coins. In a few weeks the computer can start the process of "learning" how to establish a grade. It will always be more accurate than a human. Quote: Grading is far more complicated than any of those tasks. Might want to also look up how many home cameras have been hacked with strangers talking to kids etc. Grading is more complicated than the internet of things? The ability of a machine to understand spoken language? Seriously? Grading is about as simple as it comes. You compare a "perfect" (the perfect is in quotes to reflect that in AI, the definition of perfect will evolve as more data points are added. In the end the issue is that a grade won't be final until enough data points are added, which could be a few weeks to a few months, but to clarify at the current grading system of a 1 point difference, the computer will be better than a human in a few weeks with enough samples (around 500 should be enough, more is always better though)) Quote: Grading coins isn't even remotely close to one of the easiest things in the world. Anyone who thinks so I severely doubt their understanding of it. I can grade coins and I think all ASE are bullion, so its pretty simple and I'm within 1 grade point on most TPG coins. Quote: Perfect doesn't exist in classic coins, nor business strike moderns. See above Quote: See above. I could go on but people that think it's this simple generally greatly over estimate their grading abilities. When I can get it with 1 point says that its much simpler than you make it out to be. Heck so many on here can grade as good or better than TPG, so its not that hard.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: But it's far simpler than facial recognition. Not really. Not for any civilian version anyways. Gets back to my previous point of if people think that grading is just mapping various points they don't understand grading. There is no eye appeal in these programs, that is part of grading for starters and there is more.
|
| |
Replies: 1,581 / Views: 148,678 |