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1938 LWC MS-67+ Just Sold For $6455

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NumisEd's Avatar
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 Posted 07/25/2022  10:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If someone would be so kind to hand me $6-7k and told me I had to buy an American coin, I would rather have bought an original Draped Bust dollar in XF condition than an ordinary LWC cent in MS-67+.
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hokiefan_82's Avatar
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 Posted 07/25/2022  10:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hokiefan_82 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
But in another hobby I am deep into, glass insulators, I know a collector who can drop a million dollars and not think much of it


By the way, Earle42, that comment brought back memories from when I was a teen in the mid-'70's. My brother and I would sometimes walk an old railroad line through the little town we lived in looking for glass insulators, as we'd heard some were worth some money. The railroad had been there since around 1900 or earlier, and often when they replaced the poles the old ones were just left along the embankment. We got boxes and boxes of insulators over time which we thought would make us rich.

Unfortunately, they were all quite common and were eventually tucked away in my parents basement, where they remained until my Mom finally got rid of them a few years ago! I think she did actually get a few dollars apiece for them, so I guess our efforts weren't for nothing...

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My U.S. Classic Commemorative Complete Set: https://www.NGCcoin.com/registry/co...sets/278741/
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hokiefan_82's Avatar
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 Posted 07/25/2022  10:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hokiefan_82 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@NumisEd, I agree completely! That's exactly what I was thinking as I was watching the price go higher and higher on that auction...
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BadThad's Avatar
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 Posted 07/25/2022  11:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
WHOA!



100% a bidding war among folks with lots of money and working on their registry set.

Where's the link to the auction?
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hokiefan_82's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  01:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hokiefan_82 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Member of SPMC, FCCB, ANA and ANS.
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Earle42's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  10:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hokelfan said:

Quote:
While I can somewhat understand the goal of building a top-registry set, paying many thousands of dollars for a coin with a mintage over 150 million, as this one has, just doesn't make sense to me. Also, the value of a common-date "grade rarity" can be an ephemeral thing. Yes, out of the 4,000 or so PCGS has graded, there is currently only 1 MS68 1938 LWC. There's no guarantee that some original bank rolls of this common date will be found to have a few more that could attain that same grade, and then the value plummets. I guess that's a chance some are willing to take.


This is why I have been known to refer to the slab+coin hobby as a Beanie Baby system (no insult meant at all - just a statement of what I think may happen). There is no guarantee, as you said, the bottom won't drop out of the values tomorrow from more examples being found.

But another way the bottom could drop out is the release of a scientifically based grading system. And I feel the time is ripe for such a system b/c the power of our handheld computers known as smartphones is likely more than sufficient to make such a system.

And while some people I have mentioned a phone app for grading to in the past say its impossible, I know of one AI project that already has had success on repeatedly grading individual Morgan dollars the same each time. Funding right now is stalled, but it was online awhile ago as a test setup. I believe I even mentioned and linked it here in the forum (?). The AI was "taught" from scanning already graded Morgans, and allowing the AI to "average" what human graders has labeled coins at each point level. While it was up and running, all you had to do was send it a picture of a Morgan.

But another approach is also possible in having the facial recognition software look (its infra red - no glare to worry about) at a coin and use a mathematical analysis, based upon wear/damage percentages in specific areas and overall, determine the grade (like the old computer systems did - but I doubt they used the 30,000 data points an iPhone uses when it instantaneously scans a face!).

One final note to this book:
Since attention is being drawn to this one MS68 cent b/c of the high price already paid, I suspect the companies will be getting a lot more submissions (profits) from people trying to get a similar graded slab.

While some people might see such a practice as unethical b/c an MS67 and MS68 are only different subjectively, the company is in the clear b/c they outright state subjectivity is how they operate. The system is set up so no matter what they do, some people will stand up for them.

Yet if a single ebay seller would "find an edge," such as this, and since that ebay seller is not a large established business, people will (rightly so IMO) denounce them as shady (I am being nice here).





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Coinfrog's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  10:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Someone would pay a million dollars for a phone pole insulator?
Edited by Coinfrog
07/26/2022 11:14 am
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BadThad's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  11:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
And while some people I have mentioned a phone app for grading to in the past say its impossible, I know of one AI project that already has had success on repeatedly grading individual Morgan dollars the same each time. Funding right now is stalled, but it was online awhile ago as a test setup. I believe I even mentioned and linked it here in the forum (?). The AI was "taught" from scanning already graded Morgans, and allowing the AI to "average" what human graders has labeled coins at each point level. While it was up and running, all you had to do was send it a picture of a Morgan.


Until they can train a system to evaluate luster and eye appeal computer grading is impossible at the mint state level.
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Earle42's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  11:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not $1,000,000 for any one insulator. But he has put more than this out collectively for them yes. He has most of the one-of-a-kinds known in the hobby as well. Some of are the shelves in the same room as (one of) his Gatling guns...the one believed to have been used By General A. Custer.

I think the record for an insulator purchase is 150K (unofficially). Antique bottles have gone for more!

The other millions he has dropped have been with insulator-hobby go-withs such as his own antique steam engine with tender, mail car and caboose. He said he was told an engine was not called a "train" unless it had these 4 components. So he had to have them all.

When the local city was tearing down an old metal RR bridge for scrap. He paid them $2,000,000.00 to tear it down and rebuild it across the river running through his property.

He is the coin collector who owns all but one (I believe - unless got the final one) of the Y2K Sacagawea & quarter mule coins.

I asked him. Yes, he has a set of of one each of the off-metal 1943 and 1944 LWCs also, along with 1 million (yes) 1923 steel cents. The huge jars I saw containing some of them looked to be MS as well. Being in arid New Mexico makes it easier to keep them in MS.

He has a DC9, F16 (wrecked ones were legal to buy and own - and he had it restored), a customized cadillac ordered by Elvis (but never delivered due to Elvis' death), an M1 tank, the insides area of a B17 where Boxcar Willie served in WWII, and his mansion is made of polished petrified rock found on his property.

All of these things he keeps in 3 of his museums (including the largest private collection of stuffed animals in the world - many of them obtained like the White Rhino that died in the NY zoo and he got it from them) which are always open to the public and schools by appointment. For which he pays a local as a guide to come in and give the tours (no charge to the people viewing the museums).

There really is MUCH more (like his stage coach, steam tractor collection, etc.)

He also got his pyrotechnic's license and makes his own professional fireworks. He puts on (designs, and sets off) a huge fireworks display for the city each year on the 4th...all out of his own pocket. Since he makes his own fireworks, they are more colorful (each individual firework) than any I have seen professionally on TV or otherwise. What I mean by this is he has all the colors of the rainbow in just one shot.

He once wanted an anchor form a sea going vessel b/c he thought it would be nice for kids to climb on while picnicking at his place during museum field trips.

And seriously, there is much more.

So paying the price of that MS68 cent would go unnoticed by him. And if you have two such people wanting something, well...


And, BTW, a lot of insulator collectors are also coin collectors. I think appreciation of the history and beauty of the collected objects might be the tie between the two. I know for me it is.

My window display:

1938-LWC-MS-67+-Just-Sold-For-$6455
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
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Earle42's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  11:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

Quote:
And while some people I have mentioned a phone app for grading to in the past say its impossible, I know of one AI project that already has had success on repeatedly grading individual Morgan dollars the same each time. Funding right now is stalled, but it was online awhile ago as a test setup. I believe I even mentioned and linked it here in the forum (?). The AI was "taught" from scanning already graded Morgans, and allowing the AI to "average" what human graders has labeled coins at each point level. While it was up and running, all you had to do was send it a picture of a Morgan.


Until they can train a system to evaluate luster and eye appeal computer grading is impossible at the mint state level.


The AI program I mentioned for Morgans did this. By training it to understand the broad range of what companies called, let's use MS64, the computer learned luster as part of the evaluation.

The more slabbed coins of each grade level it would be shown, the more accurate the AI was able to make a norm for what humans called that grade level. And, as I said, it brought up the same grade on each coin they threw at it.

Since the system was based upon already slabbed coins, the grading is technically based upon what the human eye(s) has(ve) perceived and graded coins to be.

Actually its getting to be a bit unnerving what AI is now capable of doing. Some Ai's recently have been having their scientists and programmers thinking they have reaches self awareness. Although I do not actually think this is possible, and the programming going into them would seem to play a huge part in this. Look for some youtube videos of news reports though. Some of the things they say are at the least an incredible mimic of sentience. For some reason, the makers of one of these (Google) will not allow the Turing Test to be applied to it - which some consider a test of sentience.
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
Edited by Earle42
07/26/2022 11:50 am
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Coinfrog's Avatar
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 Posted 07/26/2022  11:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks, @Earle42. Fascinating stuff.
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Kopper Ken's Avatar
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 Posted 07/28/2022  09:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Kopper Ken to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Earle42...that is beautiful...fantastic that they aren't slabbed...any DMPL's or MS-70's?

KK
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Earle42's Avatar
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10038 Posts
 Posted 07/31/2022  11:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@KK


I have thought maybe I should start an insulator grading/slabbing (big plexi cubes!) business...NOT!

LOL!

Actually, insulator collectors are not as concerned about damage b/c these were utilitarian, were packed in barrels of straw for shipping on flatbeds of trains, likely the barrels were literally dumped off of the flatbeds, and then the insulators spent decades exposed to the elements with a wire continually exerting force on them (hence worn rubs/grooves into the glass etc.).

In fact the official price guide actually says the prices listed are for near mint condition insulators and that a mint condition insulator is worth a premium. Yes, mint condition pieces can be found can be found, but having a rare piece in mint condition is really something special.



How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
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Kopper Ken's Avatar
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 Posted 08/01/2022  09:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Kopper Ken to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Again really nice...did the different colors have a significance? Different manufacturers?

KK
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Earle42's Avatar
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10038 Posts
 Posted 08/01/2022  7:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The colors were a genius marketing idea used by the second largest, Hemingray Glass Co. to get a bigger piece of the pie form the leader, Brookfield.

Hemingray marketed the idea of colors making it easier for a specific company, sending out a lineman for repairs, to easily ID that specific company's line. This is where the bulk of the amazing colors came form in the hobby, but I am not sure it worked as planned simply b/c sometimes they were found totally populating whole poles for some distances just like normal aqua or clear ones. I am sure in some places it did work. But the idea was abandoned by them for most of their time in business after it had been introduced (1880s), so the color idea must not have been as profitable as they hoped.

The hobby believes all purples were made as clear insulators and turned purple by sunlight exposure. Manganese, the clarifying agent for the glass batch, is well documented as turning purple with UV exposure.
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
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