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Replies: 2,699 / Views: 86,771 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
Vector Ze it's awesome that you remember those moments in Silver history as for myself those years are a bit of a blur. 2008 to 2020 were my busiest collecting years and when I went to coin shows and shops regularly. So I bought most of what I own during the years you mentioned.
Just as the highs are higher today. The floor is undoubtedly higher now too. There are some other notable differences between what happened then and what's happening now. The breadth and range of the moves and the speed at which they are occuring.
The addition of Silver to the Critical Minerals List. Federal action to secure supply chains and provide price stability aka a floor. Industrial demand, over 60% of Silver demand is now industrial.
Structural defecit in Silver where demand has outpaced production for the past 6 years. And let's not forget COMEX Silver inventories have reached critically low levels in 2026. Analysts have warned there's a "math problem" where demand for physical delivery exceeds available stock. Something to watch for in the upcoming May contract expiration.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
Silver hit a low of $74.23 early Thursday morning. A bit of a plunge from the $83.245 high it was at Friday. Nearly $10 drop per Ounce. Imagine Silver moving $10 an ounce in one week back when Silver was down in the $20's?  It would have been mind blowing.
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Valued Member
United States
493 Posts |
Harry213 Eash spike had it's cause. Hunts trying to corner the market in 1980, economic uncertainty in 2011 combined with a profitable gold-silver ratio. 2026 was a combination of industrial supply shortage and investor demand. Yes, the floor is higher. But, fundamentally, the 2026 spike will seem like any other when viewed in the rear view mirror. Who would be shocked to see $50 silver? Not me. Not even $40 in a few years.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked by $200, either. Silver is nothing if not volatile. And if any of us could make a reliable forecast, we could easily become very wealthy.
Edited by Vector Ze 04/23/2026 10:45 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
Vector Zee that's a valid point and that's why the best strategy is dollar cost averaging. Just buy steadily. Buy what you can, when you can. This of course works better the longer the time frame is in which you plan on holding.
Same thing applies when trying to gauge the next high or low price level. Looking at where Silver is right now seemed impossible 2 years ago. And who would have thought it would hit $120? It didn't get here in one day, it took a series of moves and pullbacks.
There's an expected range in which any commodity is expected to move within a certain time frame. That's easy, the whole options market is premised on that exact mathematical formula. Based on standard deviations, there's volitiliy factored in, etc,etc. But the direction of the move is the hard part to figure out. Wether or not a plus or minus $25 expected move will get Silver to $50 or $100 in 60 days is the real question.
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
10563 Posts |
This early morning while the King was snoozing in his onesie, Gold was at $4671 and Silver around $74.
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Valued Member
United States
493 Posts |
I believe that after falling off a cliff at the end of January, we've begun what may be a long downward trend (with surface irregularities) that could last for years. That would suck at this stage in my life, but history likes to rhyme.
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Moderator
 United States
188770 Posts |
I still believe that silver wants to reside in the $65-$75 zone I stated previously. It may venture above now and then, but I do not see it going below.  Prove me wrong, Market Forces. 
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5855 Posts |
I've given up making predictions regarding gold and silver, but I did tell my wife this morning that, while I don't think silver will ever drop back below $50, I am quite certain that it will never go back up to $120. To Vector Ze's point, however, I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised if silver did eventually drop back down to $40 or even $30.
My wife, on the other hand, agrees with Harry213's point that things are different this time and that silver will never go back down that far, and I hope both of them are right.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
Silver made a lower low of $73.845 overnight, the $75 line didn't hold as predicted, so as you can see on the daily chart below, where each candle represents 1 day since the Friday high of $83.245 The pattern for the week looks like a stairway going down now. That is the trend to expect moving forward until we get a reversal. How low will it go? Let's see. We already know where support is, or at least some people do. The difference between trying to predict the price now verses when it was flying high in January is this. Back when Silver was breaking $70, $80, $100, $115 and moving over $10 a day at times, those were never before seen price levels. Purely un-"charted" territory. Because Silver never traded in "no mans land" before, it was impossible to tell where it would stop. There wasn't any chart you could look at that could tell you where the price levels were prior to that. Now that we've been "to the moon and back" so to speak, it's easy to see where all the big transactions took place aka support and resistance levels. It is now "charted" territory. And because Silver has stabilized greatly, and moving like other assets on the market and no longer bucking like a wild bronco, that too helps to determine where it could end up. When an asset starts moving at a normal pace as Silver is doing now, you can't really say it's going to $40 or that it's never going to $120 Because during normal market periods assets don't move straight up or straight down (unless a market crash). They chop and grind sideways and up, then sideways and down, then sideways and up again, you get the idea. 
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Moderator
 United States
188770 Posts |
It will not go below $65. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
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Moderator
 United States
188770 Posts |
I like your maths. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
Quote: I still believe that silver wants to reside in the $65-$75 zone I stated previously.
It may venture above now and then, but I do not see it going below.
Prove me wrong, Market Forces. Quote:It will not go below $65.  Hey I'm in your camp on that one, and put me on the record for saying such a bold prediction too.  But I believe there is strong support for it remaining in that range and multiple reasons that exist today that tell it's never going near $30 ever again. Quote: I believe that after falling off a cliff at the end of January, we've begun what may be a long downward trend (with surface irregularities) that could last for years. This is valid and plausible. The way I see it, that crash happened for a reason because first of all it should not have gone that high that fast. That was the hype, the speculation, the bubble bursting. And think about where it bottomed out. So indulge me on this but let's say we removed that spike from the chart, call it an anomaly that should not have happened. Now looking at the chart strictly from the base line. An upward trend line could be drawn from where it was in the $40s and $50s to today, showing the $60s level as the current floor. Of course there's one way to prove this possibly in the coming weeks depending how low silver goes.
Edited by Harry213 04/24/2026 11:04 am
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Moderator
 United States
188770 Posts |
We will see $2 gasoline before $30 silver. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1099 Posts |
Quote:We will see $2 gasoline before $30 silver.  That's an interesting parallel.  It brings to mind the one time in recent history where we saw both Oil and Silver hit bottom. The COVID crash. Actually everything hit bottom, then bounced higher. And this is the one caveat to my prediction of higher silver. A historic Market crash. That would be the only thing I could imagine that would bring silver below $30 in a hurry, even if only momentarily. And unlike the 2020 crash where everything bounced, the next one could be something more like the 2008 housing bubble collapse and the great recesssion. Something we may be getting set-up for when you look at the AI tech bubble and the all time highs we're seeing. Weird how it's happening at a rather strange time for all time highs to be occuring 
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Replies: 2,699 / Views: 86,771 |