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 Replies: 27 / Views: 2,964 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
659 Posts |
like...sometime next week.
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Valued Member
 United States
213 Posts |
Looks like the "STEP" was a tough-nut to crack... maybe another attempt late in the year, or if a "Black Swan" pops up. The Black Swan Theory or Theory of Black Swan Events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight. What we call here a Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. Black Swan Events were characterized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book (revised and completed in 2010) - "I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives". Examples of "Black Swan events" would be 9/11, the collapse of Russia, and the invention of the Internet. Read these - http://www.davemanuel.com/investor-...swan-theory/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theoryThe Danester |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
We want to compare today with the 1980 run-up and crash of silver.
With faster communications, we could reasonably expect a crash to occur much faster than 31 years ago. Instead, the opposite has happened.
IIRC, the silver price in 1980 dropped overnight from 50 to 30. Today, it also dropped when it got to 50, but it still hasn't reached 30 three weeks later. When it even got close, at 32, it took a sharp rise of 4.
Based on this behavior, it looks like silver is only down temporarily, and my guess is 50+ before the end of 2011.
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Valued Member
United States
362 Posts |
Hell, ill say, my birthday, july 6th
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Valued Member
United States
213 Posts |
Back on April 8th when this thread started, I said " It's likely there won't be a big bubble and resulting crash... but there will be a point where wide swings and volatility set in. I think we are about $10 away - when Silver reaches the magical $50 per oz (the "Silver Thursday Event Point" or STEP)". That's what happened, and now it looks like Silver is ready to rise again. On its 6-month chart we can see how silver went parabolic to become fantastically overbought by the end of last month, as shown by the oscillators at the top and bottom of the chart and by the huge gap that opened up with its 200-day moving average. During the week before it crashed down there were clear candlestick warnings of imminent failure, with a marked Reversal Day appearing that took the form of a long-legged doji which came close to being a strongly bearish "gravestone doji". Now that it has crashed down close to very strong support and the uneducated public have become alarmed and turned bearish, we are seeing the opposite type of candlesticks appearing - long tailed bullish candlesticks, including a "bull hammer" on Thursday. This is saying to us that a significant tradable rally is imminent, even though there is likely to be another downwave later that takes silver to a lower low probably in the $28 area to complete the reactive phase.  http://www.clivemaund.com/article.p...a60064f89a95The Danester |
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Valued Member
United States
213 Posts |
Silver hasn't yet crashed. The assumption that it has is not grounded in any sort of reality.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Danester,thanks for the lesson on chart interpretation. I really do need to learn more about technical analysis! One question I do have,is there a way to separate physical silver from paper silver? the reason I ask is that physical prices don't seem to move in lock step with paper silver so is there a separate analysis for physical?or can it be broken out in some way?
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Valued Member
United States
213 Posts |
OK, Silver has still not cracked $50/oz. this year. The high was on April 28th... just under $50.
Here is a review of our prognostications -
Silverhawk74...........June 3, 2011
hockingzig.............July 3, 2011
2011rachums107.........August 15, 2001
Danester...............September 21, 2011,
w1a9c8k5...............October 15, 2011
Darth Anarchus.........October 31, 2011
GRR....................December 21, 1912
Silver looks like it may go below $30/oz - a strong support level..... What say you all.
Edited by Danester
09/24/2011 06:29 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
I'll add my 2 cents.
Silveris a double edged sword. The sell off this past few days in PM appears to be reactionary to cover losses in basically all investments following the grim economic news. Gold dipped but will very likely jump up again due to safe haven investment. Silver dipped further due to it's dual industrial use but I don't see why it won't bounce back the the same as Gold. HSBC adjusted its estimate of gold prices for 2012 (a few months away) to above $2000. No reason why silver won't follow.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Fifty dollars by June 3rd, what the heck was I thinking....
Nice example of a true green horn guess, lol....
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Valued Member
United States
213 Posts |
Silver broke through the $27 range today, but then bobbed-up again. Let's see if it can hold.  |
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Pillar of the Community
Mexico
1304 Posts |
I thought I saw what's called a dead-cat bounce...but it seems to be holding. Shame, and I was hoping to have fun at the coin show this week. :(
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Replies: 27 / Views: 2,964 |
First Page
Posted 05/13/2011 5:17 pm
