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Silver Is Crashing! Oooh, The Humanity

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harrison2's Avatar
Mexico
1304 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2011  2:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add harrison2 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Again today?!?!
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2011  2:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I would caution that higher risk does not always translate to higher returns. Stocks, for example have gone down in value since 2000, Also, kids who put yheir money in high risk assets and see it take an 80% hit will get frustrated and bail. Financial services firms push kids into risky fnds because they make more in fees.

A good mix is 50% bonds and 50% stocks. Excellent returns, much lower standard deviation. No more than 10% in PM's this silver crash shows why extreme volatility and price manipulation.

First, no one said that higher risk = higher reward... but that IS the general trend in investing. Exceptions do occur, of course, but the fact is, if you want investors to take on more risk, you HAVE to pay them more or they will not do it.

The trick with retirement investing is to not pay too much attention to your account. Check it quarterly, at the most, and adjust your asset allocation annually, again, at the most. Other than that, let it swing and don't be overly concerned about it. It is the nature of the market to rise and fall on a routine basis. You can't let that sway your need to be invested. Just realize that the value of your account is a lot like the tide... it WILL roll in AND out. If an investor gets too concerned about this aspect of investing, they will almost always do the wrong thing at the wrong time. I know... been there, done that, and got the prize at the end of it.

As to the asset allocation, I tend to use the "rule of 100". This is a generic rule of thumb but it works pretty well. It says that a person should have an asset allocation to stocks equal to 100 minus their age. At age 22, for example, the investor would have 100 - 22 = 78% of their money in stocks and 22% in other investments. This 22% could be divided among real estate via REITs, PMs, bonds, and cash. Note that the rule of 100 has a person in at least some stocks until they reach age 100... which few do. The point is that we all need at least some stocks as inflation hedges. PMs are also great at hedging against inflation. I agree completely that an allocation of 5-10% of PMs is very good. More or less than this results in a portfolio that is less balanced.

One very important aspect of investing is to learn about diversification. It really is the only "free lunch" in investing. Everything else costs money! With proper diversification, you can build a great portfolio that just fits you and your needs. It can be more stable or it can rock-n-roll... or it can be just somewhere in between.

I also want to commend the OP for being aware of retirement planning at such a young age. Compounding is a VERY powerful force in investing and time is vastly on your side when you are young. As time passes, though, it turns against you and you then have to start running uphill against it. That is very difficult to do and many do not make it. By starting early in life, though, you can make it work for you and that greatly increases the odds of you being able to retire successfully at an age young enough to enjoy the fruits of your labors. Been there and done this too! Retired financially independent at age 55.

One other thing... the stock shares of the PM producers should be considered as part of the PM allocation and not as part of the stock portion. Just my $0.02 here. I am sure that others will disagree and that's fine. We all have to find our own way and do what makes the most sense for us and our particular financial situation.
Valued Member
Ozzie's Avatar
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2011  2:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think diversification at the end of the day is all good and well but timing the markets is everything.

Diversification can reduce risk but if the whole market crashes it doesn't really help. A hedge or insurance might.
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junior e's Avatar
United States
931 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2011  5:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add junior e to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Let it fall. I'll buy more.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/14/2011  10:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think diversification at the end of the day is all good and well but timing the markets is everything.

Two of the world's greatest investors ever, Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch, have both admitted in public that they cannot time the market. They both know FAR more about investing than ANY of us here ever will. I will go with their strategy any time.

Diversification and proper asset allocation are more than "good and well", they are virtually everything to an investor. Traders, on the other hand, are still thinking that they can time something. Note who gets destroyed financially when the market suddenly and unexpectedly turns against them. No, it is not the investors.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 05/14/2011  11:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree Ed about those two fellows, I would invest any way they told me to, no questions asked. My dad drilled into my head growing up...."If you wanna be a expert in anything, get with someone who already is an expert in what ever that may be, and do EXACTLY what they are doing."

Words to live by....

His other favorite saying...."If your gonna be dumb, you better be tough."

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Ozzie's Avatar
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  12:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Timing is still everything.......you need to ensure you have a stop loss and take profits.......Buffett uses timing. Didn't you notice how many deals he made when the GFC crashed many good companies?

This is a silver discussion. Buffett doesn't buy silver or commodities.
Edited by Ozzie
05/15/2011 01:02 am
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  02:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Great point Ozzie as we talk about sliver 90% of the time (90% lol, pardon the pun), and I like it!

I don't have the means or knowledge to invest in what the two guys Ed mentioned, so physical gold an silver will have to do. They say 5 to 10 percent pm's, to hedge the other investments eh? Not this guy 100% into the pm's, lol!

Edited by Silverhawk74
05/15/2011 02:16 am
Bedrock of the Community
sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  02:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ed_B: Looks like financial advisors think alike around the world!

I could have read your comments straight out of the investment section of a Sydney newspaper! Standard mainstream thinking.

Still, somewhat of a problem for retirees or people nearing retirement, when ALL asset classes nosedive, which happened during the GFC. And I do not know how to avoid this scenario, when it happens.

Numismatically, I have found that that coins are a counter cyclical investment. I believe that the value of my collection declined little or perhaps not at all, during the GFC. I guess the reason for this is that most folks who have a lifetime interest in numismatics would not have sold their collections anyway, especially if they are not into PM's.
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Ozzie's Avatar
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  07:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The standard stuff that is taught is business schools doesn't really apply in the real world. Schools are selling education so they need to stick to the program. The program is to teach the students how to sell the services. That's how the industry makes money. And look what happens when people sell something that is worth little money. Service provider makes money and seller is caught holding the ball............GFC
Edited by Ozzie
05/15/2011 07:30 am
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ayejay1974's Avatar
United States
314 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  1:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ayejay1974 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
This is a silver discussion. Buffett doesn't buy silver or commodities.


So I guess his purchase of 130 million ounces of Silver @ $8.00/oz then sale @ $12.00/oz doesn't count? We Can talk about Buffett in a silver discussion TYVM.
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mitchhailey's Avatar
United States
1150 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  2:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mitchhailey to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I just can't see the dollar situation getting resolved. I'm buying physical silver.

Personally, I really don't care what Warren does, or any of those super wealthy guys. They will always be o.k. financially. It is us little guys that need to protect themselves with physical metals.
Valued Member
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  3:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Geardaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I just can't see the dollar situation getting resolved. I'm buying physical silver.

Personally, I really don't care what Warren does, or any of those super wealthy guys. They will always be o.k. financially. It is us little guys that need to protect themselves with physical metals.


I couldn't agree more!
Bedrock of the Community
Bryan1315's Avatar
United States
14454 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  4:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bryan1315 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Personally, I really don't care what Warren does
I don't know, if Warren Buffet would to dump his silver holdings all at once silver prices would probably fall under $5.00 an ounce and m,ay be that low for quite some time because he has an astronomical amount of silver in his portfolio and it would flood the market with just his holdings, so I can't say I don't care what he does because I definitely do care but I will not be watching his every move to decide what I am going to do
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Piffin's Avatar
United States
299 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  5:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Piffin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Buffet does not hold silver so he would have to short it to dump any.
somebody here said 50/50 bonds and stocks. No way! Bonds is a bubble sitting on a needle waiting to pop. FAR from safe! I own select stocks and miners, some medical devices, and energy. Not going anywhere near a bond investment for at least five years
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